The chart in my post shows homicides by illegal aliens at 3 in 2020 vs 60 in 2021 & 2022. Border enforcement dropped homicides by illegal aliens increased dramatically. Homicides by illegals fell to 29 in 2023 & 24. Border enforcement seems to be proportionally reducing illegal alien crime rates across the board in 2025 although this is only 7 months in of course.
I don't have time to verify your claims here - but I will just point out what they are missing.
Comparisons with native born Americans.
Here's some data that does that!
- U.S.-born citizens commit violent crimes at higher rates per capita than both immigrants and undocumented immigrants.
- Immigrants, regardless of legal status, generally exhibit lower violent crime rates compared to native-born citizens.
- Socioeconomic and legal factors significantly influence the likelihood of committing violent crimes among different populations.
Understanding the Per Capita Differences Among U.S. Citizens, Immigrants, and Undocumented Immigrants
ithy.com
And this...
A new Cato Institute study further refutes claims that illegal migration is somehow causing a crime wave.
Claims that illegal immigration is causing a crime wave are ubiquitous on the political right, and likely helped Trump win the 2024 election. But social science studies consistently show that immigrants - including illegal ones - actually have much lower crimes than native-born Americans. A
new analysis by my Cato Institute colleague Alex Nowrasteh and political scientist Michelangelo Landgrave is the most thorough and up-to-date assessment yet.
Alex summarizes their findings
here:
Our consistent finding is that legal immigrants have the lowest incarceration rates, followed by illegal immigrants, and that native-born Americans have the highest. Illegal immigrants are half as likely to be incarcerated as native-born Americans, and legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated….
And this...
Data is clear that immigrants don’t increase crime in the United States, expert says
Donald Trump has staked his deportation plan on claims that migrants are bringing crime to the U.S. A criminologist says the data consistently indicates otherwise.
“There’s absolutely no evidence –– none whatsoever –– that that’s what’s happening on this unprecedented level,” Stowell says. “Not only is crime not going up, it’s not even remaining static. It’s continuing this downward trend as immigration continues to grow.”
National crime rates peaked in the 1980s, but between 1980 and 1990 it dropped by 30.8% and since then has fallen dramatically year over year, Stowell notes. In fact, almost every major form of crime, from violent crime to property crime, has decreased in that time period. It’s not just a historical trend either: Between 2023 and 2024, violent crime fell by 10.3%.
In that same time period, the immigrant population in the U.S. has skyrocketed. In 1980, the foreign-born population in the U.S. accounted for only 6.2%; it hit 15.6% in 2024.
“When people say crime is on the rise, it’s among the safest times to have ever been in America, and it also corresponds to a time when we’ve seen an unprecedented influx of foreign-born individuals,” Stowell says.
Stowell says that if the claims that criminal migrants are
driving an increase in violent crime were true, “it would bear out in the statistics. It would have to, especially with violent crimes.”
But, in most cases, immigrants not only don’t increase crime in communities, their presence decreases crime. The relationship between crime and immigrants is near universal across the country, Stowell says: In communities with more immigrants, crime rates, specifically homicide rates, are lower.
A Northeastern criminologist says that, statistically, immigrants are associated with less, not more, crime.
news.northeastern.edu
And this...
September 28, 20244:17 AM GMT+10Updated September 28, 2024
There is no evidence to suggest undocumented immigrants are responsible for 4,000 U.S. deaths every year, contrary to social media posts sharing the unsubstantiated statistic.
Reuters Image
“Less than 500 people a year are killed by rifles… let’s ban them! Over 4,000 people a year are killed by illegals... let’s give them $2,200 a month taxpayer assistance, register them to vote in our elections and keep the border wide open to invite more of them into our country,” reads the graphic.
The rifle figure is somewhat true, as fewer than 500 murders were committed yearly with rifles from 2019 to 2021 according to the FBI’s
latest annual figures, opens new tab, but the figure rose to 556 in 2022 and 511 in 2023 (See “Crime in the United States Annual Reports,” click “Expanded Homicide Tables” and open “Table 8”). The number of homicides committed using all types of firearms was 13,529 in 2023, according to the report.
There is no evidence for the “4,000” figure, however. Studies and estimates by academics and think tanks show undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born individuals.
NO NATIONAL STATISTIC
There is no nationwide data on crimes committed specifically by undocumented immigrants, but
research shows they do not commit crimes at a higher rate than native-born Americans.
“We know of no national statistics on the numbers of deaths committed by unauthorized immigrants,” Michelle Mittelstadt, communications director of the Migration Policy Institute think tank, said in an email.
Despite the lack of official data, there is significant research demonstrating “unauthorized immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S. born,” Mittelstadt said.
Texas is the only state that logs immigration status in its arrest records, and several studies use data from the Texas Department of Public Safety to examine criminality among immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
TEXAS DATA
Two studies found that undocumented immigrants in Texas commit homicide at significantly lower rates than their U.S.-born counterparts.
A June 2024
analysis, opens new tab by the libertarian think tank Cato Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh found that, for the years 2013-2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas for “illegal immigrants” was 2.2 per 100,000, while that of native-born Americans was 3.0 per 100,000.
For example, in 2022, undocumented immigrants made up about 7.1% of the Texas population and accounted for 67, or 5%, of the
1,336 people, opens new tab convicted of homicide.
That same year, 1,209, or 90.5%, of people convicted of homicide were native-born Americans, who made up 82.5% of the population, the analysis said.
“I’ve seen zero evidence for illegal immigrants killing 4,000 people a year,” Nowrasteh said in an email. “I've never seen that number defended by anybody spreading it.”
Similarly, a
2020 study, opens new tab published in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal found that undocumented immigrants were less than half as likely to be arrested for homicide than U.S.-born citizens, based on Texas data.
The study, by Michael Light, sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and two other researchers, found the
arrest rate, opens new tab for homicide was 1.9 per 100,000 people among undocumented immigrants and 4.8 per 100,000 among U.S.-born citizens from 2012 to 2018.
IMPLAUSIBLE STATISTIC
The social media graphic’s assertion that undocumented immigrants kill 4,000 people per year is unlikely even when taken at face value, Light said in an email.
“Put simply, the 4000 figure is implausibly large given what we currently know,” he said.
When applying the figure by using the Pew Research Center’s latest estimates of
11 million, opens new tab “unauthorized immigrants” in the U.S. in 2022, the homicide rate would be 36.4 per 100,000 people.
“This would be greater than a six-fold higher homicide rate than the overall homicide rate,” Light said. The
murder rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 5.7 per 100,000 people in 2023, according to the FBI’s annual report on crime statistics released on Monday.
VERDICT
No evidence. There is no evidence that 4,000 people are killed by undocumented immigrants every year.
This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team.
Read more about our fact-checking work.