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2020 Equals Warmest Years on Record

Discussion in 'Physical & Life Sciences' started by Occams Barber, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    2020 Confirmed As One Of Earth's Warmest Years On Record
    BEN DOMENSINO, 15 JANUARY 2021

    Newly released figures from five world-leading datasets has confirmed that 2020 was one of our planet's three warmest years on record.

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has combined data from five separate datasets to come up with a single figure that represents how much our global temperature has changed relative to the pre-industrial level.

    According to the WMO, "The average global temperature in 2020 was about 14.9°C, 1.2 (± 0.1) °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level".

    This figure, which combines both land and ocean surface temperatures, was produced using datasets from:

    • The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
    • NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS)
    • The United Kingdom's Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT)
    • The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and its Copernicus Climate Change Service
    • The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
    [​IMG]

    Image: Global mean temperature anomalies from five the datasets used by the WMO. Source: WMO / Met Office

    All five of these global datasets individually place 2020 among the three warmest years on record globally. They also all rank the past decade as our planet's warmest on record.

    Both NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service place 2020 and the equal warmest year, tied with 2016. NOAA and the UK Met Office put 2020 as the second warmest year behind 2016, while the JMA ranks 2020 as third warmest, behind 2016 and 2019.

    La Nina is likely to have helped reduce the global average surface temperature towards the end of 2020. This makes it impressive that the year still came in as one of the warmest in recorded history.

    More Reading:
    The State of the Global Climate 2020 | World Meteorological Organization (wmo.int)

    OB
     
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  2. Jeshu

    Jeshu Bought by His Blood Supporter

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    Really weird i live in Western Australia and the Summers have grown cooler over the last 10 years instead of hotter.
     
  3. Aussie Pete

    Aussie Pete Well-Known Member Supporter

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    It's no coincidence that forests have been cut down or burnt deliberately at an alarming rate. The brilliant (sarcasm alert) engineers in the petrochemical and mining world are working on what they call Carbon Capture and Storage. The idea is to pump CO2, a by-product of some refining processes and natural gas extraction, into underground chambers. This is expensive, uses energy (so adding to the problem) and dependent on having suitable sites to store the gas.

    God has already provided a carbon capture and storage system. It's called a forest. It is free. It is self maintaining. If managed correctly, it can be a useful resource. Slash and burn is not correct management. "For the foolishness of God is wiser than man’s wisdom, and the weakness of God is stronger than man’s strength."
     
  4. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    I don't know where your info comes from but the Bureau of Meteorology(BoM) has a different opinion. The quotes below are from the BoM Annual Climate Summary for WA. ( Western Australia in 2020 (bom.gov.au)

    Western Australia in 2020: second warmest year on record
    2020 is the second-warmest year on record for Western Australia, after the record warm year of 2019. Annual mean maximum temperatures were very much above average (warmest 10 percent of years) for almost the entire state. Annual mean minimum temperatures were above average across most of the state. Rainfall was below average in the west, though above average rainfall in the north and central WA largely due to heavy falls from tropical systems at the start and the end of the year.

    Above average temperatures across most of WA
    • 2020 was the overall second-warmest year on record for Western Australia, after the record warm year of 2019.
    • WA annual mean maximum temperature was 1.54 °C above average, the second-highest on record.
    • WA annual mean minimum temperature was 0.95 °C above average, the second-highest on record, and highest since 1998.
    Western Australia in 2020 (bom.gov.au)
    OB
     
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  5. musicalpilgrim

    musicalpilgrim pilgrim on the sacred music pathway Angels Team Supporter

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    Here in the UK it has been the coldest winter for many years.
     
  6. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    Apparently not.

    This is from the UK Met Office:
    (Met Office: The UK's wet and warm winter of 2019-20 (carbonbrief.org))

    The 2019-20 UK winter – covering the months of December, January and February – saw the highest maximum December temperature and the wettest February on record. Overall, the winter was the UK’s fifth warmest, while it was the warmest on record for Europe as a whole.

    In this article, we review the recent winter and the factors that contributed to it. Highlights include:

    • The winter of 2019-2020 set records in the UK, including the wettest February and highest maximum December temperature.
    • This winter ranked as the warmest European winter on record
    • Past records show a trend towards warmer and wetter weather. The winters of 2006-07, 2013-14, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2018-19, and 2019-20 were all in the Top 10 warmest winters in the UK, and 2006-07, 2013-14, 2015-16 and 2019-20 were in the Top 10 wettest years.
    • This warm, wet winter was largely driven by a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, while it is also consistent with projections for the UK under a warming climate.
    OB
     
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  7. Jeshu

    Jeshu Bought by His Blood Supporter

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    Look i keep no records but where we live it has been cooler for years.
     
  8. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    If you keep no records how do you know it's been cooler?

    Obviously there will be some regional variations, but the overall WA picture is a warming climate.

    From yearly reports on WA climate:

    • 2019 warmest on record
    • 2018 4th warmest
    • 2017 8th warmest
    • 2016 coolest since 2011
    • 2015 2nd warmest
    • 2014 warmest on record
    • 2013 warmest on record
    • 2012 average
    • 2010 9th warmest
    OB
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2021
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  9. Sparagmos

    Sparagmos Well-Known Member

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    That doesn’t really make sense...
     
  10. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    The nearest detail I can get down to for your part of the world is Southwestern Australia. As you can see from the BoM graph below, average temperatures over the past 25 or so years have been steadily increasing with only 2 years where it decreased. This graph comes from Climate change and variability: Tracker: Australian timeseries graphs (bom.gov.au).

    OB

    upload_2021-1-17_13-21-25.png
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2021
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  11. Aussie Pete

    Aussie Pete Well-Known Member Supporter

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    That's the problem with averages. And memory. Melbourne has had relatively mild summers recently. However, the winter temperatures have been much warmer. Average it out and it probably does reflect warming. There are perfectly logical reasons, and not necessarily due to greenhouse gas emissions. And if Australia reduced its emissions to zero, there would no influence on climate change.
     
  12. Occams Barber

    Occams Barber Newbie Supporter

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    These statistical methodologies are set up by expert statisticians. The value of averaging is to smooth out short term variability. For instance the benchmark used to calculate variability in the graph in post #10 above is an average of 30 years of temperature data from 1961 to 1990. These averages make for a robust basis for comparison. Think of it as an indicator of how much energy is in the climate system at a particular time rather than a measure of temp.

    There are multiple known contributors to global warming however science has established that human caused carbon emissions are the primary driver. The effect of CO2 in the atmosphere has been known for around a century It's even possible to differentiate between natural carbon emissions and man made based on the proportion of different carbon isotopes in the atmosphere.

    It's true that Australia's contribution is relatively small but there are good reasons why we should decrease our output:
    • First there's the moral argument that says we should contribute like everyone else. If we don't why should anyone else?
    • Then there's the practical case. In a tug-of-war team the individual's contribution may be small but if all the small contributors stopped trying the team would lose. It's not our individual contribution but the sum total of the many small and few large which all add up.
    • Lastly - the world is shifting to alternative energy sources whether we like it or not. If we don't join we risk being seriously left behind economically.
    OB
     
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  13. pitabread

    pitabread Well-Known Member

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    "The single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood."
     
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