Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike

[eleos1954]

Let’s try again with lower stratospheric cooling, this time with pictures.

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We stupid humans have been able to change earth’s thermodynamic behaviour through AGW.
We are now at or near a tipping point beyond which reversing AGW becomes increasingly more difficult if not impossible.

Throughout out earth’s geological history various factors have caused global warming.
(1) Variations in earth's orbit affecting the eccentricity of the orbit around the sun, as well as the precession and tilt of earth's rotational axis.
(2) Solar variability resulting in an increase of solar radiation striking the earth’s surface.
(3) Paleogeographic changes where the location and movement of continents, mountain uplift, and the opening or closing of ocean passages have significantly influenced climate patterns.
(4) Volcanic emissions.
(5) Atmospheric composition such as fluctuations in the levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, water vapour and methane in the atmosphere.
(6) Ocean currents where the movement of ocean currents are influenced by earth's rotation and temperature differences between the tropics and poles resulting in redistribution of heat and moisture across the planet's surface.

None of these naturally occurring events will cause the lower stratosphere and troposphere to be out of phase.
For example volcanic emissions will increase CO₂ levels but also particulate matter and aerosol levels which can have both a net cooling or heating effect on the lower stratosphere and troposphere which remain in phase.
Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases has been driven by increases in temperature in the lower stratosphere and troposphere which remain in phase.

You quoted the Bible and stated our fate is sealed and there is nothing we can do.
This is a cop out, an attack on science’s attempt of restoring CO₂ equilibrium levels and shows a definite lack of moral responsibility towards the plight of future generations.

CO₂ emissions continue to increase.



Oh come now isn’t your “time is made up” theme motivated by creationism and nothing can be older than the genealogies in the Bible?
Any evidence which contradicts the Bible can therefore be summarily dismissed as time is simply made up and is nothing more than a measurement.

The energy-time relationship ΔE.Δt ≥ h/4π of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle mentioned previously destroys this argument.
There is no mathematical operator for time T in quantum mechanics which takes on the form T|Ψ> = t|Ψ> where t is the time measurement, unlike energy E , position x and momentum p which are measurable according the equations H|Ψ> = E|Ψ>, X|Ψ> = x|Ψ> and P|Ψ> = p|Ψ> respectively.

Δt is a physical time difference which explains why virtual particles can pop into and out existence in a quantum vacuum lasting only a sextillionth of a second to the half-life of ²³⁸U which is 4.46 billion years.

You quoted the Bible and stated our fate is sealed and there is nothing we can do.

I'm not saying there is nothing we can do ... biblically we are supposed to be caretakers of the earth ... I'm just saying we are limited of what we can do.

So, you have been throwing out various computations (according to theory) .... if mankind didn't exist those computations wouldn't exist, time wouldn't exist because there is not a mind ... there would be no idea about it.

When did time begin? Does time end? Tell me without using theory.

As far as a short time-frame ... if ... there is a creator and everything was created fully formed with many possible variations stored in the genetic code ... then it wouldn't take very much time at all for things to reproduce rapidly with many variations.

Soft tissue found in dinosaur bones should be a big red flag for evolutionists.

Theories vary on how soft tissue survived 68 million years, but Schweitzer hypothesized that densely mineralized bone somehow protected the inner structures. There are several theories regarding this could be ... but in reality ... it is unknown.

Somehow? Unknown.

I get it that it is difficult for some to believe in a creator ... but it is also at least equally difficult to believe the various theories as there are many assumptions made within them (a bunch of "could bes"). So, each of choose what we believe.

Because time is foundational to the theory of evolution ... then one must seriously considered to whether or not time truly exists outside of the human mind. If so ... what is the natural mechanism of time - the cause, how is it realized without a mind as there is nothing to comprehend/calculate/measure it.

Nature is an inherent character or constitution, particularly of the ecosphere or the universe as a whole.

Theories do not exist in nature. They are created by people and exist only in peoples' minds. Once again, the mind.

 

[eleos1954]

So what do the actual models tell us regarding predictions vs observations.
Climate models can make both hindcasts and forecasts, in 2004 the 20 year forecast was.

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It seems climate models using relatively primitive supercomputers in 2004 got the predictions right.
These days the climate models are expected to be even more accurate as supercomputers are far more powerful and can process more data.

Recall in a previous post lower stratosphere cooling is the fingerprint for AGW, it is also a region which is sensitive to volcanic eruptions.

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Notice anything in the data?
Major volcanic eruptions which had a global impact in 1961, 1983, and 1991 only temporarily reversed lower stratospheric cooling due to AGW.
It clearly indicates humans are the dominant factor, volcanic eruptions are only provide short term effects.

One of the ironies in the burning of fossil fuels is that pollution in the form of particulate matter and sulfate aerosols has a negative feedback on global warming by scattering solar radiation in the atmosphere which for decades masked the warming effects due to CO₂.
The reduction of these pollution levels was commenced decades before there were any policies let alone effort to reduce CO₂ levels and has been successful at the cost exposing the full effects of global warming due to CO₂.

Models

A scientific model is a physical and/or mathematical and/or conceptual representation of a system of ideas, events or processes.

Ideas ... not fact ... conceptual

 

[Hans Blaster]

I'm not saying there is nothing we can do ... biblically we are supposed to be caretakers of the earth ... I'm just saying we are limited of what we can do.

Christian or not, bible follower or not, we all live here in Earth's ecosystem and we all have vested interests in keeping it viable to live in for ourselves and the next generation.

So, you have been throwing out various computations (according to theory) .... if mankind didn't exist those computations wouldn't exist, time wouldn't exist because there is not a mind ... there would be no idea about it.

When did time begin? Does time end? Tell me without using theory.

As far as a short time-frame ... if ... there is a creator and everything was created fully formed with many possible variations stored in the genetic code ... then it wouldn't take very much time at all for things to reproduce rapidly with many variations.

Soft tissue found in dinosaur bones should be a big red flag for evolutionists.

Theories vary on how soft tissue survived 68 million years, but Schweitzer hypothesized that densely mineralized bone somehow protected the inner structures. There are several theories regarding this could be ... but in reality ... it is unknown.

Somehow? Unknown.

This is all irrelevant.

I get it that it is difficult for some to believe in a creator ... but it is also at least equally difficult to believe the various theories as there are many assumptions made within them (a bunch of "could bes"). So, each of choose what we believe.

This is irrelevant too.

Because time is foundational to the theory of evolution ... then one must seriously considered to whether or not time truly exists outside of the human mind. If so ... what is the natural mechanism of time - the cause, how is it realized without a mind as there is nothing to comprehend/calculate/measure it.

No you don't. Not any more than you have to contemplate the mechanism for setting the number of generations of fundamental particles at three. For all practical purposes (that is in the world that you and I and the climate exist and function) time exists and all of these esoteric investigations of physics weirdness are irrelevant.

Nature is an inherent character or constitution, particularly of the ecosphere or the universe as a whole.

Theories do not exist in nature. They are created by people and exist only in peoples' minds. Once again, the mind.

 

[sjastro]

I'm not saying there is nothing we can do ... biblically we are supposed to be caretakers of the earth ... I'm just saying we are limited of what we can do.

So, you have been throwing out various computations (according to theory) .... if mankind didn't exist those computations wouldn't exist, time wouldn't exist because there is not a mind ... there would be no idea about it.

When did time begin? Does time end? Tell me without using theory.

As far as a short time-frame ... if ... there is a creator and everything was created fully formed with many possible variations stored in the genetic code ... then it wouldn't take very much time at all for things to reproduce rapidly with many variations.

Soft tissue found in dinosaur bones should be a big red flag for evolutionists.

Theories vary on how soft tissue survived 68 million years, but Schweitzer hypothesized that densely mineralized bone somehow protected the inner structures. There are several theories regarding this could be ... but in reality ... it is unknown.

Somehow? Unknown.

I get it that it is difficult for some to believe in a creator ... but it is also at least equally difficult to believe the various theories as there are many assumptions made within them (a bunch of "could bes"). So, each of choose what we believe.

Because time is foundational to the theory of evolution ... then one must seriously considered to whether or not time truly exists outside of the human mind. If so ... what is the natural mechanism of time - the cause, how is it realized without a mind as there is nothing to comprehend/calculate/measure it.

Nature is an inherent character or constitution, particularly of the ecosphere or the universe as a whole.

Theories do not exist in nature. They are created by people and exist only in peoples' minds. Once again, the mind.

You have confirmed a theory of mine that you are anti-science in the guise of creationism.
You do not accept climate science nor evolution because you see science in general as an attack on your faith.
Rather than coming straight out and admitting it, attempting to intellectualize your prejudices with the claim time is a human invention which in some bizarre way invalidates scientific theories is not only pure nonsense but disingenuous.

I think it is a bit rich to claim biblically we have the responsibility of being caretakers for the earth while at the same time quoting Isaiah 51:6 that the earth’s fate has already been sealed.
You are prepared to go to any lengths to deny it was the very scientific theories that predicted climate warming was caused by humans and is supported by observations.
To put it bluntly claiming climate science has been wrong about its predictions by conveniently confusing the science with alarmism is being deceptive.

 

[sjastro]

Models

A scientific model is a physical and/or mathematical and/or conceptual representation of a system of ideas, events or processes.

Ideas ... not fact ... conceptual

Good grief.
When scientists make predictions particularly of a quantifiable nature what are they supposed to do?
Time machines haven't been invented yet, we can't travel into the future to check our theories.
The only step is to construct a model based on scientific theories involving thermodynamics, fluid mechanics and computer science which makes predictions and as shown in post #520, climate models from 2004 have accurately predicted temperature changes confirmed by measurements made some twenty years later.

 

[Halbhh]

Interesting thing I was just reading the other day, and made into a post now, is how we don't yet have a model that fully accounts for the relatively large spike in temperatures in the last year, so I just made a new thread about that.

 

[Ophiolite]

Good grief.
When scientists make predictions particularly of a quantifiable nature what are they supposed to do?
Time machines haven't been invented yet, we can't travel into the future to check our theories.
The only step is to construct a model based on scientific theories involving thermodynamics, fluid mechanics and computer science which makes predictions and as shown in post #520, climate models from 2004 have accurately predicted temperature changes confirmed by measurements made some twenty years later.

In discussion with a colleague on a complex engineering model, he made the observation, "All models are wrong, some models are useful". The climate models have the potential to be extremely useful, but only if we pay attention to them. Grumblings by indivuals such as @eleos1954 detract from that use. Sadly the problem is not their disbelief, but their profound sincerity.

 

[eclipsenow]

I'm not saying there is nothing we can do ... biblically we are supposed to be caretakers of the earth ... I'm just saying we are limited of what we can do.

Not at all - we can stop climate change by ridding the earth of the extra 'blankets' that are overheating it. 3 of those blankets are fossil fuels - which kill millions of people each year. 1 is land clearing and agriculture - which are going to have to change anyway to feed 10 billion people expected soon.

So, you have been throwing out various computations (according to theory) .... if mankind didn't exist those computations wouldn't exist, time wouldn't exist because there is not a mind ... there would be no idea about it.

When did time begin? Does time end? Tell me without using theory.

Oh - we'll all just divert away from the fact that you don't know how to justify your climate scepticism shall we? Go on another "time is relative to me" blah blah navel gazing diversion?

Sorry - this thread isn't about that. Please start another thread if you wish. I do not want to subscribe to that particular alt-science thread!

 

[sjastro]

In discussion with a colleague on a complex engineering model, he made the observation, "All models are wrong, some models are useful". The climate models have the potential to be extremely useful, but only if we pay attention to them. Grumblings by indivuals such as @eleos1954 detract from that use. Sadly the problem is not their disbelief, but their profound sincerity.

Scientific models can be best described as being approximations of reality.

 

[AV1611VET]

Scientific models can be best described as being approximations of reality.

Which of these is the most approximate?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Which of these is the most approximate?

Those are better characterized as hypotheses.

 

[AV1611VET]

Those are better characterized as hypotheses.

Call it whatever you want.

Which one is best?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Call it whatever you want.

Which one is best?

So far (as I understand it) the evidence does not distinguish them clearly enough to pick a winner.

Therefore, we suspend judgment. We continue to entertain competing hypotheses until and unless evidence or reasoning leads to a conclusion.

 

[pgp_protector]

Which of these is the most approximate?

View attachment 346605

Did you read the article that that image originated from?

 

[Estrid]

Did you read the article that that image originated from?

Study???

 

[AV1611VET]

Did you read the article that that image originated from?

No.

Should I have?

 

[AV1611VET]

So far (as I understand it) the evidence does not distinguish them clearly enough to pick a winner.

Therefore, we suspend judgment.

How about an opinion?

 

[essentialsaltes]

How about an opinion?

I have not formed one.

 

[eclipsenow]

Did you read the article that that image originated from?

I love your St Augustine signature! What a classic.