[MOVED from AP]2014 Warmest Year on Record Since 1880

[FreedByte]

...so you demand all sorts of ridiculous regulations, taxes, behaviors - and especially that everyone agree with your basic premise or suffer your sanctimonious ridicule.

Denial of scientific evidence and replacing it with propaganda from the oil industry deserves sanctimonious ridicule.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson

 

[HerbieHeadley]

All that fertile Greenland in Greenland. Such a tragedy.

Rising ocean levels are an indisputable fact.

The incredibly rapid rate of melting in Greenland is an indisputable fact:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yq-sfWSWLg

 

[FreedByte]

All that fertile Greenland in Greenland. Such a tragedy.

Greenland has no arable land. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Greenland#Land_use

 

[EdwinWillers]

Simplified, to the point of absurdity.

And pointedly so; yet even when it's put in the most absurdly simple terms, there are still people who will deny the nature of the data.

There are still people who will deny the entire historical dataset, including its periodicity, before the last 134 years, deny it has any relevance whatsoever except as a basis for the "spikes" they're asserting today, who will nevertheless continue to promote the idea that the apocalypse is upon us and sanctimoniously demand demonstably irrational, apocalyptic "solutions" - absurd schemes like massive taxation and regulation and 'cap and trade' - schemes which if you want to know the real truth is actually what this is all about - the opportunity to suck in a gullible group of people, feed them some tidbits of scientific data to assuage their inherent paucity of intellectual curiosity, and ride them and everyone else to wealth and power until this crisis not pan out and they find another one.

Did you know NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association claims to be some 200 years old? Fine group, generally - though they were only officially created in 1970 (that'd be 44 years ago for those here who may not want to do the math) - still, they lay claim to the entire history of the United States being (among obviously other things) playing a key role in climate science. Actually, they go back as far as 1643 to note that an American clergyman was the first 'American' (he lived in Delaware) to start observing the weather

American meterology began with the reverend John Campanius, a Swedish clergyman who settled near the present site of Wilmington, Delaware, in 1643. Campanius, the "first meteorological observer on the western continent," kept an account of the weather, day by day, during the years 1644--`45.1

Yep, he actually kept 2 years worth of weather data - 360 years ago. Thomas Jefferson and James Madison even kept their own records of local weather data.

The government didn't officially get involved though until 1814, when the Army Medical dept issued a rule, requiring its doctors and surgeons "keep a diary of the weather." In 1817, the Land Office issued a similar ruling for its local people at their offices around the country.

In 1840, the reputed James Espy gave to the British organization his vaunted "theory of storms" published a year later under the title "Philosophy of Storms" - no doubt a basis for some of the computer models we hear about today.

And it just expands from there. Clergymen, statestmen, politicians, doctors, surgeons, land office managers - virtually anyone interested in or ordered by the government to "diary data."

http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/meteorology.html

2014 is ostensibly hotter than anything they recorded.

 

[High Fidelity]

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[leftrightleftrightleft]

LOL "Facts."

Well, let's analyze the "facts" a little bit.

First, let's assume the story is true. Let's assume that 2014 was indeed the "hottest" year on 'record' since 1880.

What is that - a 134 year period of time?

The actual 'recorded' history of earth's climate is at least 400,000 years old - by some scientist's measurements, over 800,000; but let's stick with 400,000.

These 'facts' represent a 134/400,000 slice of that 'record,' or in decimal format - 0.00034th of that period.

More specifically, they represent 1 (some here argue 10) years of THAT period.

Now, by way of comparison, 1 second is approximately 0.007 of a day - which is about 20 times as long a period, proportionately as 134 years is to 400,000.

So, since we're discussing 1 year - nay, let's go ahead and call it 10, as some are arguing - 10 years out of 134 out of 400,000.

That's sort of like freaking out over a photoflash and believing we're all going to be blinded by day's end.

And out of curiosity, did they measure temperature with the same instruments in 1880 as they do today?

Sidebar, how many of the climate scientist's climate models have accurately predicted the earth's climate since being programmed? (Ans: 0)

Personally, I'm not going to be freaked by this 'news.'

2014 was the warmest year since 1880 when records began.

If we keep breaking global temperature records every few years, that's an indication that the Earth is warming up.


The Earth has been warmer in the past, but humans have not been around to experience it. Most of what we know about agriculture and weather patterns relies on average temperatures within a certain band. I have no doubt that the Earth will survive with higher CO2 in the atmosphere. The Earth is very resilient and has withstood some fairly traumatic times in its history. But, if we have the opportunity to move away from technologies and activities which increase temperatures, why not try?

 

[FreedByte]

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Climate change is a political issue. Please move it back, thanks.

 

[USincognito]

where was it the warmest year on record? here in north east texas our summer last year was actually pretty mild by comparison to one a few years before it.

With what part of Global Warming are you having the most trouble? It's the Global part, right?

 

[Strathos]

Climate change is a political issue. Please move it back, thanks.

I'm pretty sure it's a scientific issue. If all politicians in the world suddenly dropped dead, it wouldn't change the facts of what is happening with the environment.

 

[hurste1951]

Well let's see - will you at least agree that the proxy methodology we use to measure CO2 as far back as 800,000 years isn't remotely capable of proving or disproving the existence or non-existence of CO2 spikes within a given 134 year sliver of time (let alone a 1 to 10 year sliver) such that we can definitively assert what we think we're seeing today hasn't ever happened before?

Let's take your "theoretical" there. Can you tell us what might have caused such a "spike" in CO2 in the atmosphere?

Interestingly we KNOW RIGHT NOW WHAT IS CAUSING SUCH A SPIKE. We can see it directly in the chemistry of the CO2 in the atmosphere. It is undeniable.

So let's talk about such a "spike". Certainly it didn't "destroy the world"...but does it have to "destroy the world" to be a concern? Nope. All it needs to do is seriously destabilize the human economies.

As someone who actually understand some of the science of AGW and who believes in it because of that understanding, I don't personally believe it will be the end of all life on the earth (despite the fact that it could do something very much like that, just based on earth's own history. No, I think it will be damning enough just to decimate the economies of the world and possibly destroy some aspects of civilization.

Perhaps you think the concept of your comfortable life in the USA circa late 20th century is bulletproof. It isn't.

Think about this: a handful of bad loans in the 2000's was enough to bring us to the limit of another Great Depression.

Imagine what destroying our ecosystem will do.

You can draw whatever conclusions you want from the data - it's up to you; but I'm not buying it.

You don't have to "buy" it. You just have to live with the consequences. Good luck with that.

You might want to learn what geologic history actually shows before placing your bet though.

 

[Heissonear]

2014 Was Hottest Year on Record, Surpassing 2010

Uh-oh.

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It MUST BE due to CO2.

And we have ability to measure earth's "global temperature" accurately to 0.01 degrees Celsius!

Lame promotion and propaganda from the Alarmist camp looking to promote the slightest. Even out of bounds of margins of error data from incomplete, sparse geographic data collections points.

What gives, Mate?

It's a Bandwagon thing, of our age.

The science in climate science has become pretty lame and corrupt.

.

 

[hurste1951]

The science in climate science has become pretty lame and corrupt.

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^^^^^Says the guy who didn't even really know about how the climate scientists measure temperature ("Temperature ANOMALY") and who doesn't know what the climate scientists actually follow (he literally thinks they ONLY focus on CO2!!!!!)

LOL. Don't be duped by someone who doesn't know the actual science.

 

[EdwinWillers]

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This is a political issue, not a physical and life sciences issue.

It was posted in politics and should remain in politics.

Please move it back.

 

[hurste1951]

This is a political issue, not a physical and life sciences issue.

It is a "politics" issue for those who have no idea how the science works.

It was posted in politics and should remain in politics.

Please move it back.

Why? Do you not understand the science? Or are you afraid of the math like Heissonear?

 

[FreedByte]

This is a political issue, not a physical and life sciences issue.

It was posted in politics and should remain in politics.

Please move it back.

I would remove this post if I were you. I got a warning for criticizing staff actions, so be careful!

 

[DaisyDay]

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It MUST BE due to CO2.

And we have ability to measure earth's "global temperature" accurately to 0.01 degrees Celsius!

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Also methane. As the permafrost defrosts, more and more methane is being released which is why we may be passed the tipping point.

 

[[serious]]

And we have ability to measure earth's "global temperature" accurately to 0.01 degrees Celsius!

You keep saying that some unspecified body is using absolute temperature rather than anomaly, but I've yet to see anyone actually do that. Instead, groups like NOAA say things like:

Why use temperature anomalies (departure from average) and not absolute temperature measurements?
Absolute estimates of global average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons. Some regions have few temperature measurement stations (e.g., the Sahara Desert) and interpolation must be made over large, data-sparse regions. In mountainous areas, most observations come from the inhabited valleys, so the effect of elevation on a region's average temperature must be considered as well. For example, a summer month over an area may be cooler than average, both at a mountain top and in a nearby valley, but the absolute temperatures will be quite different at the two locations. The use of anomalies in this case will show that temperatures for both locations were below average.

Using reference values computed on smaller [more local] scales over the same time period establishes a baseline from which anomalies are calculated. This effectively normalizes the data so they can be compared and combined to more accurately represent temperature patterns with respect to what is normal for different places within a region.

For these reasons, large-area summaries incorporate anomalies, not the temperature itself. Anomalies more accurately describe climate variability over larger areas than absolute temperatures do, and they give a frame of reference that allows more meaningful comparisons between locations and more accurate calculations of temperature trends.​

That's kind of the opposite of what you are claiming.

 

[[serious]]

Well, to make this thread more politics appropriate, you could always approach it like this:

2014 Was Hottest Year on Record, Surpassing 2010

With the continued heating of the atmosphere and the surface of the ocean, 1998 is now being surpassed every four or five years, with 2014 being the first time that has happened in a year featuring no real El Niño pattern. Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, said the next time a strong El Niño occurs, it is likely to blow away all temperature records.

Uh-oh.

What should be the governmental response to the continuing rise of global temperatures? What should be done to address the anthropogenic factors of climate change?

 

[Grizzly]

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It MUST BE due to CO2.

And we have ability to measure earth's "global temperature" accurately to 0.01 degrees Celsius!

<snip>

Not sure about the .01 claim, but I do know that precision is a function of variability and the number of data points contributing to the mean estimate. the more data points, the more precision (all else being equal). It wouldn't surprise me if 1,000's if not tens of thousands of data points go into those global estimates.

 

[Heissonear]

Some are slow to understand what has happened to "climate science". And the propaganda being promoted by agenda driven "scientists ".

There are climate events occurring every day across the Earth giving a spectrum of weather, from direct solar radiation to barren sun tundra atmospheric cooling/freezing, to atmospheric pressure induced wind with geographically diverse speed and direction, to humidity variation from which side of the jet stream and recent front that passed through. And some reduce this to single data points!

All these climatic events on Earth each day and we let "climate scientists " reduce them to single point temperatures for a time period such as the past 24 hours or past year?

In one place you have to hold your hat on to keep it from blowing off, and another place you cannot walk bare footed across the asphalt street without burning your the bottom of your feet, and another place the moisture of your exposed face to -50°F will freeze in less than 2 minutes, but that day the Global Earth Temperature is one fixed number?

I think science is observations based, not hypothetical numbers and calculations that people try to correlate on a graph and place in literature.

What have some people allowed reality to be turned into? Graphs? Accumulative data points? Mens opinions?

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