[MOVED from AP]2014 Warmest Year on Record Since 1880

hurste1951

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Not sure about the .01 claim, but I do know that precision is a function of variability and the number of data points contributing to the mean estimate. the more data points, the more precision (all else being equal). It wouldn't surprise me if 1,000's if not tens of thousands of data points go into those global estimates.

I already tried pointing that out to him, even included a reference to a Stanford University statistic page. Heissonear will have none of those "facts". Heissonear (the famed geochemist) doesn't have time for how science is done. He's on a CRUSADE.
 
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Justatruthseeker

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Uh-oh is right, since their own published data gives lie to the claim.

ytd-evolution_draft10.png
 
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Mr Strawberry

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I already tried pointing that out to him, even included a reference to a Stanford University statistic page. Heissonear will have none of those "facts". Heissonear (the famed geochemist) doesn't have time for how science is done. He's on a CRUSADE.

Given that some of Heiss's posts come across as having been written whilst, shall we say, emotionally animated, I think there may be more going on there than just a personal crusade.
 
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Justatruthseeker

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Given that some of Heiss's posts come across as having been written whilst, shall we say, emotionally animated, I think there may be more going on there than just a personal crusade.


Kind of like your personal crusade to always attack the poster while refusing to challenge the data??? That kind of crusade?
 
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DogmaHunter

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That's sort of like freaking out over a photoflash and believing we're all going to be blinded by day's end.

It really almost hurts to read such juvenile argumentation.


Sidebar, how many of the climate scientist's climate models have accurately predicted the earth's climate since being programmed? (Ans: 0)

Pointing out that it's extremely hard to predict things in models that are so complex that even a server farm can't accurately analyse "what if" scenario's is not an argument against the factual trend of a planet warming up due to an excess of co2.

Personally, I'm not going to be freaked by this 'news.'


And your grandchildren will curse you for thinking like that.
 
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leftrightleftrightleft

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[serious];66928419 said:
Well, to make this thread more politics appropriate, you could always approach it like this:


What should be the governmental response to the continuing rise of global temperatures?

It would need to be a radical government which does not buy into the notion of infinite growth. It would need to be a radical government which does not measure success by GDP and economic metrics but rather measures success by the health of the environment and its citizens.

I feel like commoditizing CO2 (such as carbon tax or cap-and-trade) just makes the situation worse because it makes it marketable. It will probably only make the situation worse.

These sorts of issues plague many environmental actions. I'm reminded of the situation where a local government gave gift cards to households which had the most curb side recycling by weight. Its absolutely idiotic on several levels. First it encourages more consumerism (with the gift cards), second, it encourages more consumption because you are measuring the recycled material by weight. The program was cut when it was discovered that some households were going out and buying flats of bottled water, emptying them down the drain and then putting the empties in their recycling bin.

Commoditizing the environment is the wrong way to go. Commoditizing pollution/garbage/waste is the wrong way to go.

A radical government would cut all subsidies to the oil and gas industry as well as an company which was found to be polluting the air or water systems with any heavy metal or plastics.

A radical government would pour billions of dollars into research into alternative energy systems as well as alternatives to plastic, heavy metals, etc.

A radical government would pour billions of dollars into building a fast and efficient passenger rail network and public transit system.

A radical government would ban large trucks unless it could be proven that the owner needed it regularly to haul equipment or drive in remote, rugged locations.

A radical government would have a one-car-per-household policy and encourage cycling (even in winter) as well as public transit.

A radical government would demand that corporations only be allowed to produce new products if it could be shown that the new product was made of better materials, used less resources in manufacturing, was recyclable, involved minimal heavy metals in production, and was able to last for years or decades. No more planned obsolescence.

A radical government would demand that all new houses built had composting toilets with grey water recirculation.

A radical government would ban clear cutting and demand reforestation projects.

Maybe not all these ideas are good ones and not all of them have to do with climate change. But I find that the climate change debate has somewhat overshadowed other pressing environmental concerns.
 
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Grizzly

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I already tried pointing that out to him, even included a reference to a Stanford University statistic page. Heissonear will have none of those "facts". Heissonear (the famed geochemist) doesn't have time for how science is done. He's on a CRUSADE.

Ugh. A math denier. Them's the toughest kind.
 
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hurste1951

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Ugh. A math denier. Them's the toughest kind.

I have to admit I'm always fascinated by someone who claims to be a scientist and then unilaterally proclaims "math" as not part of this science discussion.

Heissonear also seems to fall into the "preemptive stats" category. For these folks who don't like (are scared of) statistics they proclaim statistics doesn't apply to this part of science.

It's sad because it's so incredibly wrong.

But I have to admit that early on in my career I was no fan of statistics and wanted them to go away because I didn't want to learn how to use them. Now I'm one of the stats guys in my R&D group. It's a lot of fun.
 
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Grizzly

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Some are slow to understand what has happened to "climate science". And the propaganda being promoted by agenda driven "scientists ".

There are climate events occurring every day across the Earth giving a spectrum of weather, from direct solar radiation to barren sun tundra atmospheric cooling/freezing, to atmospheric pressure induced wind with geographically diverse speed and direction, to humidity variation from which side of the jet stream and recent front that passed through. And some reduce this to single data points!

All these climatic events on Earth each day and we let "climate scientists " reduce them to single point temperatures for a time period such as the past 24 hours or past year?

In one place you have to hold your hat on to keep it from blowing off, and another place you cannot walk bare footed across the asphalt street without burning your the bottom of your feet, and another place the moisture of your exposed face to -50°F will freeze in less than 2 minutes, but that day the Global Earth Temperature is one fixed number?

I think science is observations based, not hypothetical numbers and calculations that people try to correlate on a graph and place in literature.

What have some people allowed reality to be turned into? Graphs? Accumulative data points? Mens opinions?

.

That's alot of words to say "I don't believe in means".
 
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Justatruthseeker

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No, I said "more going on than a personal crusade". Do try and concentrate.


I know, he's presenting evidence, while you just went on a personal crusade. I agree, his is more than just a personal crusade.
 
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Mr Strawberry

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I know, he's presenting evidence, while you just went on a personal crusade. I agree, his is more than just a personal crusade.

Interesting that you think Heiss presents evidence, as it is his avoidance of science that was commented on in this thread. If anything, I was pointing out mitigating circumstances for him.
 
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HerbieHeadley

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Watch: Morano on Fox on ‘Hottest Year’ Claims: ‘It’s statistical nonsense’ – ‘NASA’s Gavin Schmidt has egg all over his face with this’
Morano: 'They are talking about statistically meaningless temperature records that the instrument record can’t even measure. It’s way within the margin of error. It’s statistical nonsense.. We have scientists now using words like ‘misleading’ & ‘lies’ & ‘deception’ against NASA.

'NASA’s lead global warning scientist is Gavin Schmidt. He’s got egg all over his face with this...It means in reality that the global warming pause continues. And according to the satellite data there has been no global warming for 18 years 3 months.'

'NASA has a major agenda when it comes to global warming and they are willing to do these kind of misleading and deceptive things when it comes to hottest year claims. The former head of NASA’s global warming research was James Hansen. He got arrested at least half a dozen times protesting global warming. Hansen endorsed a book calling for ridding the world of industrial civilization. That was the lead global warming scientist at NASA. Now we have Gavin Schmidt who replaced Hansen.'

MIT Climate Scientist: Global Warming Believers a 'Cult'
 
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HerbieHeadley

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hurste1951

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Oh, OK, so what do we do with THIS now?

Fig.A2.gif


And I guess we're going to have to get rid of the FIRST LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS as well, huh? I mean if you can increase CO2 indefinitely and the energy trapped can just "disappear" then we'll have to rethink everything we know about thermodynamics.

Hey, I know...let's sell PERPETUAL MOTION MACHINES to denialists! Seems they'll buy anything now.
 
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Audacious

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HerbieHeadBoy, what about this study? What about the fact that the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the US National Academy of Sciences, the American Meteorological Society, the Network of African Science Academies and the International Union for Quaternary Research all agree that anthropogenic climate change exists?

Breitbart.com and Foxnews.com, two of the world's least reliable news sources, aren't really going to sway me in the face of almost all of the evidence and consensus.
 
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Actually, we really don't know how much "arable" land Greenland has until it melts all the ice. :)

Vikings grew barley in Greenland | ScienceNordic


Greenland is Green Again


Some farms are reporting crops of at least 20 - 25 strawberries. :D

Is Greenland three islands?

0,1020,691365,00.jpg


377_1greenland_people_01_24.jpg


20377933.JPG

You do understand what will have happened to the rest of the planet if Greenland fully melts, right? There's enough water in greenland to cause 30 ft of global sea level rise, not to mention that if greenland melted entirely, large portions of antarctica will have as well.
 
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HerbieHeadley

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EdwinWillers

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It really almost hurts to read such juvenile argumentation.
Truth frequently tends to have that effect on people - particularly when it doesn't need anything more than simple terms to present.

Pointing out that it's extremely hard to predict things in models that are so complex that even a server farm can't accurately analyse "what if" scenario's is not an argument against the factual trend of a planet warming up due to an excess of co2.
Meh... I think it needs pointing out - especially when the impossibly complex "what if" scenarios are being posited as accurate predictions - and when so many actually believe them.

Out of curiosity - in all their complexity, did they forget to factor for CO2? Is that why none of them have predicted anything accurately yet? :scratch:

And your grandchildren will curse you for thinking like that.
Let me guess - that came from one of the models - because *that* would be a good prediction indeed, you know, us not having any children and all. At least the models are consistent; and I suppose once they fix a couple of the minor details, everything will be copascetic. :cool:
 
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