Your scenario counts on MI, which is very up in the air.
If the President loses NC, it is unlikely that can win the election. Biden will most likely win PA, as he has roots in Scranton. Biden will probably win MI, as Trump only won it by 10,000 votes in 2016. The President has somewhat better odds to win WI, but as I recall, WI only gets him to either a tie or a narrow 2 vote win. He won 306 Electoral Votes in 2016, less 20 for PA and 16 for MI gives you 270. However, the 270 figure assumes that he wins the Northern Maine Congressional District and the one for Omaha and it's suburbs. If he loses either of those, then you are at a 269-269 tie, but that assumes that he wins NC. I believe that he won NC by about 3 pts. How much ground he might lose in NC by moving the RNC Convention is iffy, but why chance it?
It is very helpful to win TX and FL, though FL is by no means a certainty. However, it takes a lot more to get to 270 and NC is a real key. It might be better for him and the party to stay in NC.
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