Dr. Fauci estimates about 100-200 thousand deaths due to COVID-19 in the US

TLK Valentine

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Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19

As the White House looks for ways to restore normalcy in parts of the U.S., the government's foremost infection disease expert says the country could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, speaking on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, offered his prognosis as the federal government weighs rolling back guidelines on social distancing in areas that have not been as hard-hit by the outbreak at the conclusion of the nationwide 15-day effort to slow the spread of the virus.


"I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases," he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. "We're going to have millions of cases." But he added "I don't want to be held to that" because the pandemic is "such a moving target."

But think of how good that will be for the economy!

Thoughts?
 

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Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19



But think of how good that will be for the economy!

Thoughts?
Well, may or may not be true, but I am also keeping an eye on the recoveries which remember are less likely to be reported than deaths. So far of REPORTED cases there have been roughly 2,000 more recoveries than deaths. Moreover, since it takes between five days and two weeks to get the test results back and one have to have two negative tests in as many days to be considered recovered that means that just as there are several days to weeks in lag of positive tests so too with negative tests. Again, by NO means am I saying this is not serious, but the fact that we do not know how many people have it due to lack of tests and lag time we have even less of an idea of how many have recovered with no test. NOT saying that this is not serious or even that he is certainly wrong only that not only are most people REPORTED recovering, but most people are recovering without ever BEING reported. You have to look at BOTH sides to be realistic. For the record, I personally have not left my yard in nearly three weeks and my mother and sister have only done so for very important tasks such as food and medicine ( my sister left one time, but just drove and did not get within six or even 20 feet of anyone.
 
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expos4ever

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According to the CDC, about 1 out of every 100 Americans who entered 2017 alive died sometime during that year. If we assume 150,000 deaths (splitting the difference between 100,000 and 200,000) this year (granted, an assumption), then Covid-19 multiplies the number of deaths by a factor of about 1.5 - 50% more Americans will die in 2017 than would have died in the absence of the Covid-19 crisis. Of course, it needs to be acknowledged that some who will die of Covid-19 will therefore be "prevented" from dying some other cause they would otherwise have died from. So the 50% figure should be reduced a bit. There are other variables, of course.

Bottom Line: The incremental number of deaths - those who would not have died if there were no coronavirus - is significant.
 
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dogs4thewin

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According to the CDC, about 1 out of every 100 Americans who entered 2017 alive died sometime during that year. If we assume 150,000 deaths (splitting the difference between 100,000 and 200,000) this year (granted, an assumption), then Covid-19 multiplies the number of deaths by a factor of about 1.5 - 50% more Americans will die in 2017 than would have died in the absence of the Covid-19 crisis. Of course, it needs to be acknowledged that some who will die of Covid-19 will therefore be "prevented" from dying some other cause they would otherwise have died from. So the 50% figure should be reduced a bit. There are other variables, of course.

Bottom Line: The incremental number of deaths - those who would not have died if there were no coronavirus - is significant.
Also, I wonder how many people that "died from the virus" truly died from the virus as opposed to WITH the virus; this is specially true of older people who have underlying conditions.
 
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Depends on if anything else major happens and how bad it gets. The scenes playing out in NYC emergency rooms won't be forgotten too easily. The Spanish flu was forgotten because of WW1.
The same thing that made it worse.
 
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expos4ever

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Also, I wonder how many people that "died from the virus" truly died from the virus as opposed to WITH the virus; this is specially true of older people who have underlying conditions.
Good point. In principle, this question could be answered.

The key thing, I think, is that we put to bed these inane claims some are making to the effect that this is just like the flu.
 
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Good point. In principle, this question could be answered.

The key thing, I think, is that we put to bed these inane claims some are making to the effect that this is just like the flu.
Although, it is more likely that the same "type" of people will end up passing.
 
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cow451

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Good point. In principle, this question could be answered.

The key thing, I think, is that we put to bed these inane claims some are making to the effect that this is just like the flu.
By that logic we could drastically reduce the death rates from cancer and other diseases wher the person died from an opportunistic infection or had a stroke or heart attack.

AKA, how to mislead with statistics.
 
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expos4ever

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Although, it is more likely that the same "type" of people will end up passing.
Good point, but I almost guarantee that Covid-19 is more deadly to younger people than the flu is - a 40 year old will be significantly more likely to die if they get Covid-19 than if they get the regular flu.
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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jvp200059t1.png


If you get it, here are your chances by age.
COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Italy

so I am 65. 3.5 - 3.6% fatality
 
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Hank77

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Although, it is more likely that the same "type" of people will end up passing.
Many of those 'type' of people, such as myself, have been vaccinated against the flu and pneumonia so our chances of dying from complications from the flu are greatly reduced. But the CoV-19 ...
 
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SaintCody777

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Good point, but I almost guarantee that Covid-19 is more deadly to younger people than the flu is - a 40 year old will be significantly more likely to die if they get Covid-19 than if they get the regular flu.
But didn't the surgeon general said that the regular, seasonal flu is much more deadly to a child, teen, or young adult than COVID-19?
However, I do acknowledge that if even a regular, seasonal flu, can kill a healthy teen or young adult with no pre-existing conditions (eg asthma, diabetes), like Shannon Zwanziger
Shannon Zwanziger: Flu Epidemic Horrors Showcased In Teen's Sudden Death
Then certainly, so could COVID-19, even though it may be true that the majority of those who get critically sick or die from the virus are either senior citizens or have certain pre-existing health conditions.
Coronavirus in France: healthy 16 year-old dies of COVID-19
PolitiFact - Young people are being hospitalized for COVID-19, too. Let’s look at the numbers
As for China, the REAL death toll in the People's Republic of China may be way higher than what's officially reported there
Billionaire Whistleblower: Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Is Over 50,000
If already at least 50,000 people died from COVID-19 in China by early Februrary, imagine how much more now.
 
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Many of those 'type' of people, such as myself, have been vaccinated against the flu and pneumonia so our chances of dying from complications from the flu are greatly reduced. But the CoV-19 ...
I understand that, but the fact is that older people are more likely to die when they DO get things like the flu. It is still not very common and it is still possible to die if you are younger and otherwise healthy, but if you take everyone who died of the flu in any particular year you will find that for the most part those people tend to be older and/or have underlying issues.
 
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Hank77

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I understand that, but the fact is that older people are more likely to die when they DO get things like the flu. It is still not very common and it is still possible to die if you are younger and otherwise healthy, but if you take everyone who died of the flu in any particular year you will find that for the most part those people tend to be older and/or have underlying issues.
Did they die from the flu or did they die WITH the flu?
I would say that they died from the flu because many of them had conditions that would not have killed them for many years or not at all.
 
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