Coronavirus more deadly than the flu?

[wing2000]

Is that even feasible with the long incubation period and inadequate testing?

It's certainly less effective without testing....but we can and should continue isolation efforts. With 25k+ cases in NYC, it's time to act.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Unless you're in WA or CA, I'd like to know how the math on that works out. The US as a whole is still seeing the # of new cases growing. While the vast majority of those raw numbers are from NY state, the rates of growth in nearly all states are between 15-25% per day. With those other states having lower raw numbers of infections, that means that they're just earlier in their curves and still have a ways to go before they hit their peaks.

United States Coronavirus: 46,168 Cases and 582 Deaths - Worldometer

Yet, the growth is anemic compared to the claims that it was growing "exponentially."

The exponential growth of cases has more to do with the timing of test result reporting rather than the virulency or actual spread of the disease. It has taken over a week for the US deaths to move from 100 to almost 600. Meanwhile, 4 times that number have died from flu...

Flu and TB utterly dwarf CV's numbers right now and the growth of CV cases does not seem to be keeping pace at all with either of those diseases either in death rate or estimated number of cases.

H1N1 had many doomsday prophets as well and it fizzled out though even this year there are some cases reported.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Human monkeypox is a rare viral zoonosis endemic to central and western Africa that has recently emerged in the USA. Laboratory diagnosis is important because the virus can cause disease that is clinically indistinguishable from other pox-like illnesses, particularly smallpox and chickenpox.
Human monkeypox: an emerging zoonosis. - PubMed - NCBI

"Clinically indistinguishable" means that the symptoms looks the same, not that it's the same disease.

You read the first paragraph of a fact sheet and thought your work was done. I hope this isn't indicative of your general work ethic.

lol, you tried to issue a rebuttal around the misuse of a term. Tell me more about your work ethic.

A quack doctor who eradicated malaria from central Texas

...by building bat houses. It's admirable work, for sure, but it's not medicine.

and conclusively proved that smallpox is transmitted by bed bugs, not the air.

No.
The Doctor Who Thought Bed Bugs Spread Smallpox

Why would you call the man a quack?

Because he performed sloppy, meaningless experiments on unsuspecting victims.

Is it always your first response to call somebody names?

No, it's not my first response.

What about a vaccinia vaccine would make it protect against more than one disease unless it contained more than one attenuated virus? Why do they administer the smallpox virus now for monkeypox if they aren't the same disease? (And their own statements say that it is 85% effective, meaning that at least 15% of the time people contract the very disease they are being vaccinated against). Where can one find any studies that show a vaccine can protect against more than one disease using (presumably) a virus that is not genetically a match?

I don't know. Have you ever looked?

Yet, the growth is anemic compared to the claims that it was growing "exponentially."

The exponential growth of cases has more to do with the timing of test result reporting rather than the virulency or actual spread of the disease. It has taken over a week for the US deaths to move from 100 to almost 600. Meanwhile, 4 times that number have died from flu...

Flu and TB utterly dwarf CV's numbers right now and the growth of CV cases does not seem to be keeping pace at all with either of those diseases either in death rate or estimated number of cases.

H1N1 had many doomsday prophets as well and it fizzled out though even this year there are some cases reported.

Where are you getting these flub and TB numbers?

 

[Al Touthentop]

"Clinically indistinguishable" means that the symptoms looks the same, not that it's the same disease.

That's not what the articles say. They say that you can't tell the difference even when looking at the virus under an electron microscope, the defacto standard for identifying virons.

Because he performed sloppy, meaningless experiments on unsuspecting victims.

Let me ask you something. We know that the spread of smallpox to native Americans in the 1800s was due to the delivery of blankets from a population of people who had suffered a smallpox epidemic to a reservation (we've even now discovered the letter written by the military official who ordered it). That delivery took ~8 weeks. Knowing what we know about the life of a viron, that most cannot live past two days in the open air, how would you explain that these blankets could produce an epidemic at the reservation 8 - 10 weeks after they were sent? Bed bugs CAN survive such a trip.

No, it's not my first response.

But it was.

Where are you getting these flub and TB numbers?

What do you think is wrong with them?

 

[Al Touthentop]

I don't know. Have you ever looked?

You're the expert. I was asking you a question. Why don't you know? I don't purport to be an expert or educated in the field other than my own research.

And as to the question of how many doctors were self-vaccinated or vaccinated their own families in the 90s, I can't find the surveys from back then but am still looking. However I did find this interesting tidbit in an article which tries to gaslight anyone who doubts vaccine efficacy.

The Shadow Network of Anti-Vax Doctors

And yet, doctors are some of the most important persuaders of vaccine-wary parents. One study in Pediatrics found that 80 percent of parents said their decision to vaccinate was “positively influenced by their primary care provider.”

Bunch of quacks?

 

[Al Touthentop]

Where are you getting these flub and TB numbers?

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

In the past 6 months:

Deaths from flu (in the US alone):

23,00-59,000

Since December COVID in the US:

586 deaths.

Doctors visits from flu in the US alone.

17 - 25 MILLION.

Hospitalizations for flu in the US alone:

370,000 to 710,000.

It's not even comparable. Covid-19, compared to flu is a puppy.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Where are you getting these flub and TB numbers?

Global tuberculosis report

10 MILLION people world wide contracted TB and got sick in 2018.
1.5 MILLION died from TB including 251k who also were HIV+.

We're not locking down the world over TB and it is quite transmittable and in the same fashion (droplets containing virons).

 

[stevil]

To be honest I think the most likely outcome by far will be the US seeing the same situation as Italy/Spain but on a much larger scale, and then reacting very hard.

Here is the latest contagion graph.
Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

A country gets onto the graph once they have 100 confirmed cases. Then it tracks how you go over time.
USA is doing the worst of all countries at 21 days since having 100. They are doing worse than China, worse than Italy, their curve is tracking very steep and showing no signs of flattening out.

To be honest most western style nations are doing poorly. We have too many stubborn and stupid people. We all are not doing enough to stop this disease, but USA is doing the very worst of all western nations. Even the worst off all nations across the globe. In terms of who has the highest contagion rate, you could say that USA is winning BIGLY.
And your current president is wanting to open things up because he is worried about the economy, he was a busy economic Easter!
Well, your earth diggers are going to be busy, so are your morticians.

 

[stevil]

It's not even comparable. Covid-19, compared to flu is a puppy.

This is just incredibly stupid. Why are there so many USA folk who can't think properly?

Do you understand what exponential growth is?
Do you understand that you need to recognise the potential early BEFORE you are overwhelmed rather than wait for the death toll to soar past that of common flu, you need to act now.
EVERYONE in your country needs to act NOW!

Those idiots not acting are ruining it for everyone else, and they will be prolonging any lockdown activities, they will be eventually making your economy even worse.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Yet, the growth is anemic compared to the claims that it was growing "exponentially."

It is growing exponentially. Cases make a line on a log plot. No need for scare quotes. Exponential has a specific mathematical meaning, and it applies to the spread of the virus in the US quite well so far.

 

[whatbogsends]

This is just incredibly stupid. Why are there so many USA folk who can't think properly?

Do you understand what exponential growth is?
Do you understand that you need to recognise the potential early BEFORE you are overwhelmed rather than wait for the death toll to soar past that of common flu, you need to act now.
EVERYONE in your country needs to act NOW!

Those idiots not acting are ruining it for everyone else, and they will be prolonging any lockdown activities, they will be eventually making your economy even worse.

And why do those who don't seem to comprehend exponential growth and where trends are heading mostly seem to align to one particular political ideology?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

In the past 6 months:

Deaths from flu (in the US alone):

23,00-59,000

Since December COVID in the US:

586 deaths.

Doctors visits from flu in the US alone.

17 - 25 MILLION.

Hospitalizations for flu in the US alone:

370,000 to 710,000.

It's not even comparable. Covid-19, compared to flu is a puppy.

And how many cases of flu were there in the US over that period? The flu has a mortality rate of around 0.01% and a hospitalization rate of around 1%. In contrast, COVID-19 has a mortality rate of between 1% and 5% (it's at 1.3% in the US and 4.5% worldwide; Italy is approaching 10%) and a hospitalization rate of at least 20%. So that's a mortality rate 100-500x higher and a hospitalization rate around 20x higher. That doesn't sound like a puppy to me. That's a wolf. We're working on building a fence around the wolf to keep it contained, but people like you keep trying to tear it down.

Global tuberculosis report
10 MILLION people world wide contracted TB and got sick in 2018.
1.5 MILLION died from TB including 251k who also were HIV+.

We're not locking down the world over TB and it is quite transmittable and in the same fashion (droplets containing virons).

Yes, TB kills a ton of people. However, the number of deaths it causes is a function of how widespread it is (the WHO estimates that up to 1/4 of the world population carries TB - most at a low enough concentration that their bodies naturally keep it under control, and they are not contagious) and lack of healthcare in third-world countries. If you get TB in the US or any first-world country, it can almost always be successfully treated with antibiotics. On average, about 500 people die every year from TB in the US. It's also more difficult to spread - from my reading, it requires prolonged exposure to someone with the disease to build up enough of a bacteria population in your body that you begin to show symptoms. You're probably not going to contract TB from someone walking by on the street or a handshake.

 

[Al Touthentop]

It is growing exponentially. Cases make a line on a log plot. No need for scare quotes. Exponential has a specific mathematical meaning, and it applies to the spread of the virus in the US quite well so far.

I know the mathematical meaning. Your chart claims we'll have a million cases by April. We'll see.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

I know the mathematical meaning. Your chart claims we'll have a million cases by April. We'll see.

Doubling time is 2.4 days per the chart, and we're at 53,000 cases 2 days before we're supposed to hit 100,000 based on the trend. Looks to be on track. If we don't hit 1,000,000 by April 2, then that will mean that the social distancing measures that we've implemented are working.

 

[hedrick]

I know the mathematical meaning. Your chart claims we'll have a million cases by April. We'll see.

Only if we don’t do anything. Key states only changed policy recently, so it could take a couple of weeks to change.

 

[Al Touthentop]

And how many cases of flu were there in the US over that period? The flu has a mortality rate of around 0.01% and a hospitalization rate of around 1%. In contrast, COVID-19 has a mortality rate of between 1% and 5% (it's at 1.3% in the US and 4.5% worldwide; Italy is approaching 10%) and a hospitalization rate of at least 20%. So that's a mortality rate 100-500x higher and a hospitalization rate around 20x higher. That doesn't sound like a puppy to me. That's a wolf. We're working on building a fence around the wolf to keep it contained, but people like you keep trying to tear it down.

If you compare the actual way that mortality rates are calculated with flu, that is, the denominator of the equation is not confirmed cases but estimated cases, (because in many cases flu is unreported and people recover from it) then covid is actually HALF as deadly as the flu. The 5% mortality numbers are specific to certain areas, not the overall numbers, and are limited to confirmed cases. Flu's mortality rate for when compared to confirmed cases is 2%. Covid-19's is 1% overall. You're comparing apples to oranges and apparently are unaware that you're doing that. Understandable since nobody is reporting this fact except the guy in the above video.

Yes, TB kills a ton of people. However, the number of deaths it causes is a function of how widespread it is (the WHO estimates that up to 1/4 of the world population carries TB - most at a low enough concentration that their bodies naturally keep it under control, and they are not contagious) and lack of healthcare in third-world countries. If you get TB in the US or any first-world country, it can almost always be successfully treated with antibiotics. On average, about 500 people die every year from TB in the US. It's also more difficult to spread - from my reading, it requires prolonged exposure to someone with the disease to build up enough of a bacteria population in your body that you begin to show symptoms. You're probably not going to contract TB from someone walking by on the street or a handshake.

TB spreads the same way as covid-19 and other diseases, through droplets containing the virus that are ejected from sneezing and coughing. It isn't airborne.

The point is in the way that we deal with these diseases. We don't shut down the country to prevent TB or the flu in spite of the fact that both diseases kill so many people. Our response is disproportionate based on fear, not science.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Doubling time is 2.4 days per the chart, and we're at 53,000 cases 2 days before we're supposed to hit 100,000 based on the trend. Looks to be on track. If we don't hit 1,000,000 by April 2, then that will mean that the social distancing measures that we've implemented are working.

And if we don't hit 100k cases in 2 days?

And by the way, you could have people dance on one leg, have a positive outcome and claim that this had a positive effect on the outcome, but it wouldn't necessarily be true. Correlation is not causation.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Only if we don’t do anything. Key states only changed policy recently, so it could take a couple of weeks to change.

And it may have no effect at all. Lots of doom prophecy which is based on fear alone, not science.

 

[Al Touthentop]

It is growing exponentially. Cases make a line on a log plot. No need for scare quotes. Exponential has a specific mathematical meaning, and it applies to the spread of the virus in the US quite well so far.

There is something wrong with this. Where did you find it?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

If you compare the actual way that mortality rates are calculated with flu, that is, the denominator of the equation is not confirmed cases but estimated cases, (because in many cases flu is unreported and people recover from it) then covid is actually HALF as deadly as the flu. The 5% mortality numbers are specific to certain areas, not the overall numbers, and are limited to confirmed cases. Flu's mortality rate for when compared to confirmed cases is 2%. Covid-19's is 1% overall. You're comparing apples to oranges and apparently are unaware that you're doing that. Understandable since nobody is reporting this fact except the guy in the above video.

Uh, no, the 5% (okay, 4.47% if we're being exact) is based on the global confirmed cases and deaths taken from the Johns Hopkins site 10 minutes ago. 415,876 confirmed cases, 18,574 deaths. The US statistic is about 1.3% - 52,921 cases, 684 deaths.

I can't find a reference for the number of confirmed (i.e. tested) flu cases, but testing for the flu is going to be less common than testing for COVID.

TB spreads the same way as covid-19 and other diseases, through droplets containing the virus that are ejected from sneezing and coughing. It isn't airborne.

Correct, but it takes much more exposure to actually contract TB.

The point is in the way that we deal with these diseases. We don't shut down the country to prevent TB or the flu in spite of the fact that both diseases kill so many people. Our response is disproportionate based on fear, not science.

We don't shut down the country to prevent TB because TB is very uncommon in the US. We don't shut down the country to prevent the flu because it's already endemic to the population and, overall, is not particularly dangerous.