Coronavirus more deadly than the flu?

[blackribbon]

Isn't obesity also terrible for putting a massive strain on the respiratory system?

Depends on the level of obesity and the otherwise health state of the individual.

 

[blackribbon]

I have it on good authority from my hospital that my state is expecting to hit the peak of the curve this week.

 

[stevil]

By any reasonable standard the sheer number of people a disease kills is the true measure of it's deadliness.
Flu annually infects over three quarters of a million people and kills up to 80,000. When coronavirus tops these numbers only then will it be 'more deadly' than the flu, imho.

A very uneducated very unintellectual view.

No. It's how many of the people it infects that it kills as to how deadly it is. Ebola is hardly deadly by your standard, but if you ever got it you would most likely be dead.

It's a combination of fatality rate in the infected as well as the contagion rate.
This virus is twice as contagious as the flu and 10 times more fatal. So it wins on both accounts by a long way.

Most countries medical systems cannot cope with this large influx of numbers, they will be overwhelmed and people with treatable illnesses will also die.

BUT as intelligent (and I say that quite generously) human beings we can recognise the danger and take steps to lessen the impact. Unfortunately there are quite a few idiots that can ruin lockdown for all of us, ensuring the disease lasts much longer than it otherwise would.

 

[Vylo]

By any reasonable standard the sheer number of people a disease kills is the true measure of it's deadliness.
Flu annually infects over three quarters of a million people and kills up to 80,000. When coronavirus tops these numbers only then will it be 'more deadly' than the flu, imho.

So much of this is completely wrong. A measure of deadliness would be based on how infectious a disease is, and the mortality rate of those it infects. A deadly disease can be contained, and thus have a low kill count. MERS, a cousin of COVID-19, kills 36% of the people it infects, but it has only killed 600 due to being highly contained and thankfully not very infectious compared to other viruses.

You don't specify, but I'm guessing you are talking US only.

The US gets MANY more cases then 750,000.. 2018 saw 35.5 million cases in the US, with 490,000 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

the flu, give or take, kills 100 Americans per day. Even with all that, the flu has a fatality rate of .096%.

COVID-19 has infected a confirmed 46,450 americans at the time of this message. It has killed 593 of them. That is a fatality rate of 1.28%, over a magnitude higher than the flu.

Thing is, the flu is an ancient disease, that has plague us since the dawn of history. COVID is a 4 month old strain that just really started its international tear 2 months ago, and with a large amount of containment that the flu rarely ever faces.

COVID is much more infections than the flu. Cases are increasing at an insane pace, and only nations with strict containment and detection have been able to stall it. America is not taking those precautions. We are doing little to contain or detect. Many areas are carrying on like barely anything is happening. we have people crowding beaches and parks as bodies drop. If we don't hunker down soon, and instead throw caution to the wind, we will find ourselves standing atop an unfathomable number of corpses in a matter of months at best.

 

[Vylo]

I have it on good authority from my hospital that my state is expecting to hit the peak of the curve this week.

Just wait until they hit that peak again next week.

 

[hedrick]

Just wait until they hit that peak again next week.

Eventually the current steps will work, although I'm worried about NYC. Washington state seems close to stabilizing: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking

 

[iluvatar5150]

I have it on good authority from my hospital that my state is expecting to hit the peak of the curve this week.

Unless you're in WA or CA, I'd like to know how the math on that works out. The US as a whole is still seeing the # of new cases growing. While the vast majority of those raw numbers are from NY state, the rates of growth in nearly all states are between 15-25% per day. With those other states having lower raw numbers of infections, that means that they're just earlier in their curves and still have a ways to go before they hit their peaks.

United States Coronavirus: 46,168 Cases and 582 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[hedrick]

I'm in NJ. If you look at infection rates across our state, it's pretty clear that the best thing we could do is close our borders with NY. Unfortunately I don't think one US State can cut off contact with another US State.

 

[rambot]

I have it on good authority from my hospital that my state is expecting to hit the peak of the curve this week.

Best of luck! I've been thinking about you. Is it manageable?

 

[hedrick]

If Trump thinks he can use half measures to stop this, then you guys are going to be experiencing worse than Italy very quickly. I’m extremely sorry for you.

It will be interesting to see what he means about restarting the economy. Once things stabilize, we can almost certainly adopt rules like those in NJ. Our businesses are operating, except retail, with instructions for people to work from home where possible. That leaves the economy operating except retail. Would that be enough for him?

Perhaps he thinks if we can get the infection rate down enough we can go to aggressive testing and contact tracing. The manpower and testing to do that seems enormous.

Perhaps he thinks we're going to have miracles. Suppose we can test people on the spot, and there's some drug that will cure them. At that point I guess you could tolerate everyone getting it. But that sounds like something that's good in theory and unworkable in practice.

The press conference where he announced this was the first one where Fauci wasn't present. He said Fauci was at another meeting. If he stops being around, we'll know things are going to get interesting.

 

[hedrick]

I'm in NJ. If you look at infection rates across our state, it's pretty clear that the best thing we could do is close our borders with NY. Unfortunately I don't think one US State can cut off contact with another US State.

hmmm..... The governor of Georgia has just called for self-quarantine for anyone coming from NY. It would be interesting for NJ to try that.

 

[Paulos23]

So much of this is completely wrong. A measure of deadliness would be based on how infectious a disease is, and the mortality rate of those it infects. A deadly disease can be contained, and thus have a low kill count. MERS, a cousin of COVID-19, kills 36% of the people it infects, but it has only killed 600 due to being highly contained and thankfully not very infectious compared to other viruses.

You don't specify, but I'm guessing you are talking US only.

The US gets MANY more cases then 750,000.. 2018 saw 35.5 million cases in the US, with 490,000 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

the flu, give or take, kills 100 Americans per day. Even with all that, the flu has a fatality rate of .096%.

COVID-19 has infected a confirmed 46,450 americans at the time of this message. It has killed 593 of them. That is a fatality rate of 1.28%, over a magnitude higher than the flu.

Thing is, the flu is an ancient disease, that has plague us since the dawn of history. COVID is a 4 month old strain that just really started its international tear 2 months ago, and with a large amount of containment that the flu rarely ever faces.

COVID is much more infections than the flu. Cases are increasing at an insane pace, and only nations with strict containment and detection have been able to stall it. America is not taking those precautions. We are doing little to contain or detect. Many areas are carrying on like barely anything is happening. we have people crowding beaches and parks as bodies drop. If we don't hunker down soon, and instead throw caution to the wind, we will find ourselves standing atop an unfathomable number of corpses in a matter of months at best.

This has been like the plot of a movie I just saw.

Contagion (2011) - IMDb

Though the virus in the movie was more infectious and deadlier, so far this is playing out like the first half of the movie.

 

[Kentonio]

It will be interesting to see what he means about restarting the economy. Once things stabilize, we can almost certainly adopt rules like those in NJ. Our businesses are operating, except retail, with instructions for people to work from home where possible. That leaves the economy operating except retail. Would that be enough for him?

Perhaps he thinks if we can get the infection rate down enough we can go to aggressive testing and contact tracing. The manpower and testing to do that seems enormous.

Perhaps he thinks we're going to have miracles. Suppose we can test people on the spot, and there's some drug that will cure them. At that point I guess you could tolerate everyone getting it. But that sounds like something that's good in theory and unworkable in practice.

The press conference where he announced this was the first one where Fauci wasn't present.

As long as you have businesses operating (even if retail aren't open) you're likely to continue to worsen the situation. All those people still have to travel and be in contact with each other at work. America simply isn't taking this seriously enough, which is no surprise because we didn;t in Europe either until the death toll rose to hundreds a day and hospitals were overwhelmed. Even now European countries that haven't been hit hard yet continue to exhibit an attitude of 'We don't have to totally shut down, we can manage' that lasts right up until its too late and things turn to chaos.

To be honest I think the most likely outcome by far will be the US seeing the same situation as Italy/Spain but on a much larger scale, and then reacting very hard. All this stuff about re-opening the economy will disappear in a week or so when the death toll rises frighteningly. No politician is going to be going on TV talking about sending people back to work when the hospitals are having to let people die due to a lack of ventilators.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

So much of this is completely wrong. A measure of deadliness would be based on how infectious a disease is, and the mortality rate of those it infects. A deadly disease can be contained, and thus have a low kill count. MERS, a cousin of COVID-19, kills 36% of the people it infects, but it has only killed 600 due to being highly contained and thankfully not very infectious compared to other viruses.

You don't specify, but I'm guessing you are talking US only.

The US gets MANY more cases then 750,000.. 2018 saw 35.5 million cases in the US, with 490,000 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC

the flu, give or take, kills 100 Americans per day. Even with all that, the flu has a fatality rate of .096%.

COVID-19 has infected a confirmed 46,450 americans at the time of this message. It has killed 593 of them. That is a fatality rate of 1.28%, over a magnitude higher than the flu.

Thing is, the flu is an ancient disease, that has plague us since the dawn of history. COVID is a 4 month old strain that just really started its international tear 2 months ago, and with a large amount of containment that the flu rarely ever faces.

COVID is much more infections than the flu. Cases are increasing at an insane pace, and only nations with strict containment and detection have been able to stall it. America is not taking those precautions. We are doing little to contain or detect. Many areas are carrying on like barely anything is happening. we have people crowding beaches and parks as bodies drop. If we don't hunker down soon, and instead throw caution to the wind, we will find ourselves standing atop an unfathomable number of corpses in a matter of months at best.

I'm basing it on total deaths, not the other metrics. When total deaths from Covid-19 surpass the flu then it will be more deadly, for the population as a whole. It's just one person's way of looking at it. No biggy.

 

[Paulos23]

I'm basing it on total deaths, not the other metrics. When total deaths from Covid-19 surpass the flu then it will be more deadly, for the population as a whole. It's just one person's way of looking at it. No biggy.

That is a poor metric because it is changing, and changing fast.

Looking at curves and how they change is a better predictor of how bad it is going to be, rather than just the total number for a disease that is just getting started.

 

[NBB]

Since when the flu provocked an respirator crisis like in italy, this is insane and very sad...

 

[wing2000]

I'm in NJ. If you look at infection rates across our state, it's pretty clear that the best thing we could do is close our borders with NY. Unfortunately I don't think one US State can cut off contact with another US State.

The problem with a federated approach is the virus obviously doesn't care about such boundaries. The US should be isolating hot spots. To date, that has not happened....

 

[whatbogsends]

As long as you have businesses operating (even if retail aren't open) you're likely to continue to worsen the situation. All those people still have to travel and be in contact with each other at work. America simply isn't taking this seriously enough, which is no surprise because we didn;t in Europe either until the death toll rose to hundreds a day and hospitals were overwhelmed. Even now European countries that haven't been hit hard yet continue to exhibit an attitude of 'We don't have to totally shut down, we can manage' that lasts right up until its too late and things turn to chaos.

To be honest I think the most likely outcome by far will be the US seeing the same situation as Italy/Spain but on a much larger scale, and then reacting very hard. All this stuff about re-opening the economy will disappear in a week or so when the death toll rises frighteningly. No politician is going to be going on TV talking about sending people back to work when the hospitals are having to let people die due to a lack of ventilators.

I'm hoping this is not the case, but my assessment has been the same. The US, by and large, is being reactive and not proactive. Reactive is too late. Some areas are getting hit hard already. Other areas seem to be waiting for themselves to be hit hard before admitting there is a problem.

Likewise, there are still large swaths of people who aren't taking this seriously, which are endangering us all. It looks like it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The problem with a federated approach is the virus obviously doesn't care about such boundaries. The US should be isolating hot spots. To date, that has not happened....

Is that even feasible with the long incubation period and inadequate testing?

 

[Al Touthentop]

If it’s not intentional, then you haven’t done a very good job of verifying your claims. To wit:

That isn’t at all how the WHO describes monkey pox:

Monkeypox

Human monkeypox is a rare viral zoonosis endemic to central and western Africa that has recently emerged in the USA. Laboratory diagnosis is important because the virus can cause disease that is clinically indistinguishable from other pox-like illnesses, particularly smallpox and chickenpox.
Human monkeypox: an emerging zoonosis. - PubMed - NCBI

That was the very first thing I found when I started looking into your claims.

You read the first paragraph of a fact sheet and thought your work was done. I hope this isn't indicative of your general work ethic.

Particular attention was focused on it in 1970 when smallpox surveillance activities in Africa revealed cases of human monkeypox, clinically indistinguishable from smallpox, particularly in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC]).

Monkeypox Virus - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

The next was a story about some quack doctor who tried (and failed) to link bed bugs and smallpox. Additionally, your stats don’t pass any sort of smell test - only a quarter of doctors vaccinated in the late 90’s?!? That certainly wasn’t my experience with a mother and family members in the medical community; we all got all of our shots on time as did everybody else. It was never even questioned.

A quack doctor who eradicated malaria from central Texas and conclusively proved that smallpox is transmitted by bed bugs, not the air. Why would you call the man a quack? Is it always your first response to call somebody names?

Dr. Charles Campbell And His Malaria-Fighting Bat Towers | Amusing Planet


Any disease is distinguishable from another by isolating its cause. If one can't distinguish the difference between smallpox and monkeypox, then they are the same virus. Chicken pox and smallpox are themselves distinguishable "clinically."

The virus is in the same genus as variola (causative agent of smallpox) and vaccinia viruses (the virus used in smallpox vaccine). Electron microscopy of cells infected with monkeypox virus shows a brick-like virion, indistinguishable from the virions of variola or vaccinia viruses (picture 1).

UpToDate


From your link:

"A new third generation vaccinia vaccine has now been approved for prevention of smallpox and monkeypox."

What about a vaccinia vaccine would make it protect against more than one disease unless it contained more than one attenuated virus? Why do they administer the smallpox virus now for monkeypox if they aren't the same disease? (And their own statements say that it is 85% effective, meaning that at least 15% of the time people contract the very disease they are being vaccinated against). Where can one find any studies that show a vaccine can protect against more than one disease using (presumably) a virus that is not genetically a match?

I don’t believe anything you wrote. Please provide citations for all of it.

What was specifically wrong with any of it? The one thing that you have said was in error, turns out not to be in error. If you can't tell the difference between viruses when examining them under an electron microscope, or genetic testing, they're the same virus. But we know that vaccinia and variola are different. To claim they are the same and themselves indistinguishable from one another is to pretty much refute about 300 years of thought regarding Jenner's discovery and belief that cow pox could be a prophylactic for small pox.

It's a bit strange that we don't practice or promote this same idea with other diseases, don't you think? For instance, we don't suggest that getting a cold will protect against the flu. They're different diseases entirely, caused by different viruses. Jenner's assertion that if one got cow pox, that made a person immune to smallpox does not have any scientific support, nor is there evidence that this is the case elsewhere today. His initial observation was anecdotal and nobody has confirmed his theory since. There is no evidence to suggest that a person who has contracted cow pox was immune to smallpox. If you know of any that deals with that specific topic, help me out. Jenner's plan was to GIVE people cow pox so that would be immune to smallpox. Not only did they not contract cow pox from the injection of the live virus, they often still contracted smallpox.

Even strains of diseases that are similar are not purported today to give protection to a person should they contract it. That's why so many excuses about the lack of efficacy of flu vaccines. Because the attenuated viruses used in them are based on educated guesses as to which strains might be active in a particular season, a person who gets a flu after having been vaccinated is said to have had the unfortunate problem of that vaccine not containing the strain he contracted.

The WHO and other organizations claim that smallpox is transmittable human to human. Charles Campbell, a doctor in San Antonio near the turn of the 20th century showed that smallpox was transmitted, not through human to human contact, but through bed bugs. He did some amazing research. Campbell also almost single handedly wiped out malaria in central Texas at that time. His accomplishments are fascinating. But you call him a"quack." On what basis?

Résumé of Experiments on Variola. By CHARLES A. R. CAMPBELL, M. D.


I can't copy the relevant text from the following but the text tells us that in spite of the fact that in Japan, where people had been vaccinated up to three times, there were still large numbers of smallpox cases.

Smallpox in Japan on JSTOR

You spouted a bunch of dangerous nonsense then told somebody else that they didn’t know what they were talking about. You invited that sort of harsh rebuke.

What exactly was dangerous about it?