Coronavirus more deadly than the flu?

[RocksInMyHead]

There is something wrong with this. Where did you find it?

What's wrong with it? Log(50,000) is 4.7 - which is pretty much where the graph is today (the final point).

 

[Kentonio]

And it may have no effect at all. Lots of doom prophecy which is based on fear alone, not science.

Please don’t claim to be speaking for science. Your position is that all the world’s major virologists and health care leaders are wrong, and some guy you found on the internet is the only one who is right. You have about as much credibility as a Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist right now.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Please don’t claim to be speaking for science. Your position is that all the world’s major virologists and health care leaders are wrong, and some guy you found on the internet is the only one who is right. You have about as much credibility as a Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist right now.

Actually, that's not my position. If you're going to assert my position you ought to know what it is. And if you're going to "speak for science" stick to scientific facts rather than ad hominem.

 

[Al Touthentop]

What's wrong with it? Log(50,000) is 4.7 - which is pretty much where the graph is today (the final point).

Well the days are not marked by dates just 0-40. Where did the graph come from?

This is a chart which tracks growth day over day.

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

 

[stevil]

And why do those who don't seem to comprehend exponential growth and where trends are heading mostly seem to align to one particular political ideology?

Is it to do with political ideology, to do with what media the people are watching, with religious belief? With a desire to support and defend Trump at all costs?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Well the days are not marked by dates just 0-40. Where did the graph come from?

This is a chart which tracks growth day over day.

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

It says in the axis label - number of days since February 29. It matches the Worldometer graph starting on the same date. Prior to Feb. 29, cases were limited to people in quarantine after arriving from China and cruise ships, as well as the nursing home in Washington. The 29th is when we really started seeing cases of community transmission.

 

[Al Touthentop]

It says in the axis label - number of days since February 29. It matches the Worldometer graph starting on the same date. Prior to Feb. 29, cases were limited to people in quarantine after arriving from China and cruise ships, as well as the nursing home in Washington. The 29th is when we really started seeing cases of community transmission.

View attachment 273629

You didn't answer my question. Where did that graph that you posted come from? Did I just stupidly miss the url? It's possible.

 

[lasthero]

nm

 

[Al Touthentop]

Uh, no, the 5% (okay, 4.47% if we're being exact) is based on the global confirmed cases and deaths taken from the Johns Hopkins site 10 minutes ago. 415,876 confirmed cases, 18,574 deaths. The US statistic is about 1.3% - 52,921 cases, 684 deaths.

Which is an apples to oranges comparison. We do not calculate, except as a point of interest, the confirmed cases vs deaths. The accepted death rate for flu is .1% because the denominator is the estimated number of cases, not confirmed. Many people get the flu and never get a test or visit a doctor.

If you compare the "confirmed cases" death rate for flu it is 2%, almost twice as high as covid-19.

That's the CDC's number, not John's Hopkins though. I like this site for the covid numbers. This kid is scraping from multiple sources.

ncov19.live

 

[essentialsaltes]

You didn't answer my question. Where did that graph that you posted come from? Did I just stupidly miss the url? It's possible.

It was I who posted it. It was homemade by a friend of a friend. I believe they are using NYT as their consistent data source.

 

[Al Touthentop]

This is just incredibly stupid. Why are there so many USA folk who can't think properly?

Do you understand what exponential growth is?
Do you understand that you need to recognise the potential early BEFORE you are overwhelmed rather than wait for the death toll to soar past that of common flu, you need to act now.
EVERYONE in your country needs to act NOW!

Well, since flu, based on the numbers, is twice as deadly as CV, we should have shut down the country for it also shouldn't we have?

 

[Al Touthentop]

It was I who posted it. It was homemade by a friend of a friend. I believe they are using NYT as their consistent data source.

OK. Thank you. That's fine. I found the other site too. I was not intending to start an argument, just find out the source.

 

[Vylo]

Well, since flu, based on the numbers, is twice as deadly as CV, we should have shut down the country for it also shouldn't we have?

The flu is less than a tenth as deadly.

The flu infected 35.5 million people in the US during 2018 and only killed 34,200 a fatality rate of ~.096%. COVID has only managed to get 53,286 in the US as of this message, but has killed 696 ~ 1.31 %

 

[Al Touthentop]

The flu is less than a tenth as deadly.

No, this is not correct. The mortality rate for flu is calculated on estimated total cases, not confirmed cases for obvious reasons.

Covid 19's mortality rate (currently) is based only on confirmed cases and even of those confirmations, some are "presumed" rather than on the basis of a lab result.

When you look at confirmed cases vs deaths for flu, the mortality rate is 2% not .1% or 0.96% whichever numbers you want to accept.

 

[Vylo]

No, this is not correct. The mortality rate for flu is calculated on estimated total cases, not confirmed cases for obvious reasons.

Covid 19's mortality rate (currently) is based only on confirmed cases and even of those confirmations, some are "presumed" rather than on the basis of a lab result.

When you look at confirmed cases vs deaths for flu, the mortality rate is 2% not .1% or 0.96% whichever numbers you want to accept.

You can try to fudge the numbers all you want, but that's patently untrue. The fatality rate for the flu is .096%. We don't yet have estimated number for COVID because it is so new, but we also lack a lot of death totals from infected that were tested at all.

 

[essentialsaltes]

When you look at confirmed cases vs deaths for flu

Does anyone care other than you? Does anyone doubt many people get the flu and never have a diagnostic test even if they see a doctor? The actual number of flu cases must be vastly larger than the confirmed ones.

 

[Vylo]

Does anyone care other than you? Does anyone doubt many people get the flu and never have a diagnostic test even if they see a doctor? The actual number of flu cases must be vastly larger than the confirmed ones.

exactly, it would be too taxing to test for it in every case, and few even see the doctor, because...... it isn't very deadly.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Which is an apples to oranges comparison. We do not calculate, except as a point of interest, the confirmed cases vs deaths. The accepted death rate for flu is .1% because the denominator is the estimated number of cases, not confirmed. Many people get the flu and never get a test or visit a doctor.

If you compare the "confirmed cases" death rate for flu it is 2%, almost twice as high as covid-19.

You're ignoring what I posted. Even if your 2% mortality rate (of positive tests vs. deaths) for the flu is correct - and you're going to need to provide a source for that because I can't find any data on it - it is STILL at least half the rate of COVID-19 in an apples-to-apples comparison. The number of deaths in the US isn't a great proxy for the overall death rate right now because we're still in the early phases. The global data is much more robust, and there is a large enough sample to eliminate noise in the data related to specific areas.

 

[stevil]

Well, since flu, based on the numbers, is twice as deadly as CV, we should have shut down the country for it also shouldn't we have?

CV is 10 to 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu and twice as contagious.
Hospitals are overwhelmed in Italy and because of that about 10% are dying there.

 

[whatbogsends]

Is it to do with political ideology, to do with what media the people are watching, with religious belief? With a desire to support and defend Trump at all costs?

I don't pretend to know. Hard to understand the psychology of anyone who would chose Trump as their champion. I'd venture a guess that it has partly to do with media consumption and partly to do with supporting whatever position Trump takes, but I imagine it's more complicated than that.