Coronavirus more deadly than the flu?

[Al Touthentop]

CV is 10 to 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu and twice as contagious.
Hospitals are overwhelmed in Italy and because of that about 10% are dying there.

Hospitals in Italy are overwhelmed by the flu as well.

CV is not 10 to 30 times more deadly than flu. You're calculating based on confirmed cases and flu's mortality rate is not based on confirmed cases. If it were, it would be twice as deadly as CV.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

You're calculating based on confirmed cases and flu's mortality rate is not based on confirmed cases. If it were, it would be twice as deadly as CV.

You keep saying this. Please provide a source.

 

[blackribbon]

As long as you have businesses operating (even if retail aren't open) you're likely to continue to worsen the situation. All those people still have to travel and be in contact with each other at work. America simply isn't taking this seriously enough, which is no surprise because we didn;t in Europe either until the death toll rose to hundreds a day and hospitals were overwhelmed. Even now European countries that haven't been hit hard yet continue to exhibit an attitude of 'We don't have to totally shut down, we can manage' that lasts right up until its too late and things turn to chaos.

To be honest I think the most likely outcome by far will be the US seeing the same situation as Italy/Spain but on a much larger scale, and then reacting very hard. All this stuff about re-opening the economy will disappear in a week or so when the death toll rises frighteningly. No politician is going to be going on TV talking about sending people back to work when the hospitals are having to let people die due to a lack of ventilators.

Actually it is working and we are expecting to hit the peak of the curve very soon...I have been told they are hoping for within a week in my state. Many hospitals are running with half the patient load they normally have because they are not accepting any elective procedures or surgeries. Everyone is discharged the minute they no longer need hospital care to finish healing at home. Much staff is being called off if they aren't ICU or ER trained.

Post Op (PACU) Units are being converted to Covid19 ICUs and from what I have seen (doesn't mean I haven't missed something), our hospital haven't reach max capacity in any hospital system yet. There are also ventilators available to buy but hospitals are waiting to spend money on this expensive piece of equipment until they need it since it won't likely be used much after this crisis passes.

 

[blackribbon]

You keep saying this. Please provide a source.

These are hard numbers to count. Most cases of covid19 will never be documented because they are too minor to justify being tested. Flu mortality is minimized by the annual vaccine...which means even those that get it, likely have a lighter illness. Most people never get tested for the flu, just like most will never get tested for Covid19. No reason. Diagnosis is based primarily on the symptoms. Most people don't even go to the doctor when they have the flu. And no doctors outside of the hospital are seeing patients with Covid19 symptoms.

Except in a few hard hit countries, Covid19 deaths will likely be less than flu deaths this year.

 

[blackribbon]

Just wait until they hit that peak again next week.

That isn't how the curve works. It doesn't do hospitals any good to under estimate the epidemic levels. But believe what you want to believe.

 

[blackribbon]

Best of luck! I've been thinking about you. Is it manageable?

I am in training for a new hospital right now. This includes training and expectation of Covid19 care. I don't know which units are being used for Covid19 patients. I'll find out next week. I do know that my hospital is running at about half the normal patient load and a lot of nurses who are not ICU trained or ER trained are getting called off. I am not sure what all will be involved in cleaning the hospital after the Covid19 admissions go down...which I expect to be happening fairly soon. Top to bottom cleaning will be needed before we can go back to normal with surgeries and non-emergency care. I am not sure how many of the cardiac procedures that are normal cases on my unit are considered emergency versus surgeries that can wait.

 

[Vylo]

That isn't how the curve works. It doesn't do hospitals any good to under estimate the epidemic levels. But believe what you want to believe.

It might not do them any good, but that's doesn't mean they aren't wrong about it.

 

[Vylo]

Hospitals in Italy are overwhelmed by the flu as well.

They are not overwhelmed by the flu, though people might be getting that in combination with COVID

CV is not 10 to 30 times more deadly than flu. You're calculating based on confirmed cases and flu's mortality rate is not based on confirmed cases. If it were, it would be twice as deadly as CV.

You don't base it off confirmed cases of the flu, because very few cases of the flu get tested....because it is not very deadly.

The leading infectious disease expert in the nation has outright stated COVID is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu: Coronavirus 10 times more lethal than seasonal flu, top health official says

"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization’s current estimate of 3.4%."

 

[blackribbon]

We don't qualify for testing but I believe Covid19 is going through my house right now. I have been without symptoms for over a week. My daughter still gets a fever every now and is going stir crazy since she can't leave the house. My son started feeling bad yesterday. No fever as of yet. But I didn't have a fever either. Whatever we have isn't the flu ... feels way different. Symptoms line up with a very mild case of Covid19.
I am hoping they come up with a serum test soon so I can verify if we did have it and hopefully are immune for at least the rest of this season. More for curiousity sake.

The bad cases of health care personnel who are getting very sick seem to be the ones taking care of the sicker patients with the higher viral loads. If it really is super contagious, then I don't know why more hospital personnel aren't sick. They are not being allowed to use isolation protection like it should be used. Masks are being locked up and you have to ask for them. They are being required to reuse single use masks all shift. I don't know anyone very sick though (yet).

 

[RocksInMyHead]

These are hard numbers to count. Most cases of covid19 will never be documented because they are too minor to justify being tested. Flu mortality is minimized by the annual vaccine...which means even those that get it, likely have a lighter illness. Most people never get tested for the flu, just like most will never get tested for Covid19. No reason. Diagnosis is based primarily on the symptoms. Most people don't even go to the doctor when they have the flu. And no doctors outside of the hospital are seeing patients with Covid19 symptoms.

Except in a few hard hit countries, Covid19 deaths will likely be less than flu deaths this year.

The claim that he keeps making is that the flu kills 2% of confirmed (i.e. tested) cases. I can't find a statistic for the number of positive flu tests annually though. Hence my request for a source.

I agree that there will be many mild cases of the disease that won't be counted, but I think you're vastly overestimating them. For the rates to be similar to flu estimates, that would mean that there are between 5 and 10 million people (on the low end - 50 million if you use the 5% worldwide mortality rate, 100 million if you use Italy's nearly 10% mortality rate) in the US right now with undetected cases of COVID. I think that's unlikely due to the preventative measures that people have taken and the length of time the virus has been in the US.

And yes, the flu will likely kill more people than COVID this year, but that will primarily be due to the fact that more people will contract the flu. We're already at an estimated 38 million flu cases for the 2019-2020 flu season.

 

[blackribbon]

They are not overwhelmed by the flu, though people might be getting that in combination with COVID



You don't base it off confirmed cases of the flu, because very few cases of the flu get tested....because it is not very deadly.

The leading infectious disease expert in the nation has outright stated COVID is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu: Coronavirus 10 times more lethal than seasonal flu, top health official says

"Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization’s current estimate of 3.4%."[/QUOT

The claim that he keeps making is that the flu kills 2% of confirmed (i.e. tested) cases. I can't find a statistic for the number of positive flu tests annually though. Hence my request for a source.

I agree that there will be many mild cases of the disease that won't be counted, but I think you're vastly overestimating them. For the rates to be similar to flu estimates, that would mean that there are between 5 and 10 million people (on the low end - 50 million if you use the 5% worldwide mortality rate, 100 million if you use Italy's nearly 10% mortality rate) in the US right now with undetected cases of COVID. I think that's unlikely due to the preventative measures that people have taken and the length of time the virus has been in the US.

And yes, the flu will likely kill more people than COVID this year, but that will primarily be due to the fact that more people will contract the flu. We're already at an estimated 38 million flu cases for the 2019-2020 flu season.

Well then, you must really be concerned about ebola...it has something like a 80% mortality.

The truth is the mortality rates of the flu vary from year to year depending on the strain and how many people got vaccinated. In the 2017-18 season, over 80,000 people died in the US related to the flu. Anyone remember the country being closed down that winter? I do remember that we had isolation cart in front of almost every patient room that winter and our unit took patients that we normally wouldn't take since we also took overflow postpartum and newborn couplets.

There is no set figure...and it is silly to argue over which is more deadly since we will never have a real count of most of the flu cases or the Covid19 cases. At best, we will have how many of the people sick enough for hospitalization died.

I have had both. Hospitalized for neither. Given the option, I'd take the Covid19 every time...but I got a light case and was not run down like the times I have had the flu. Honestly, December's unnamed "flu-like" virus was worse than either. I get that some people are getting very sick...but they are also getting very sick related to the flu and the "flu-like" virus. The very sick and died group is the minority for all three viruses. The luxury of living in a first world country. Fighting over death rates is definitely a "first world problem". It is more deadly and dangerous in third world cultures and will continue to be long after we don't think about Covid19 anymore.

The better fight would be what populations are most susceptible and need our help, both financially and with manpower. I hope as soon as we get our feet under us and our economy going again, that we don't forget those that won't get back to normal for a very long time...and their "normal" is nowhere near our standards of living.

I also hope that hospitals and states take having a pandemic emergency plan will finally become a priority to the point that protocols and planning becomes more than lip service.

 

[Al Touthentop]

You don't base it off confirmed cases of the flu, because very few cases of the flu get tested....because it is not very deadly.

No, you don't calculate from confirmed cases because it is inaccurate and grossly inappropriate to do so.

 

[Vylo]

No, you don't calculate from confirmed cases because it is inaccurate and grossly inappropriate to do so.

You are literally arguing against the statement from one of the top health officials in the nation. Good luck with that.

 

[Al Touthentop]

You are literally arguing against the statement from one of the top health officials in the nation. Good luck with that.

No I'm not. The CDC doesn't calculate the death rate of flu based on confirmed cases because it isn't close to being accurate. If they did, the death rate would be off by more than 20x.

And it doesn't do this because flu is less deadly. It does this because the scientists who work there want to publish accurate information. The CDC and WHO are not intentionally trying to mislead people. The media is hyping up the death rate because most of its reporters don't understand the numbers they're reporting.

This isn't a conspiracy by government to fool people, it's a conspiracy of media idiocy.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Well then, you must really be concerned about ebola...it has something like a 80% mortality.

Ebola is concerning, but has a difficult time spreading because it kills victims too quickly and can't survive any length of time out of the host. It's very, very bad if you get it, but it's hard to get.

The truth is the mortality rates of the flu vary from year to year depending on the strain and how many people got vaccinated. In the 2017-18 season, over 80,000 people died in the US related to the flu. Anyone remember the country being closed down that winter? I do remember that we had isolation cart in front of almost every patient room that winter and our unit took patients that we normally wouldn't take since we also took overflow postpartum and newborn couplets.

61,000, actually. Out of an estimated 45 million infections. That's about 0.1% mortality, which is bad, but still 10x lower than the lowball estimates for COVID. The reasons for the panic with COVID are:

1. It's new. That means we don't know exactly how it will affect people, we don't know how infectious it is, and no one has any immunity to it.

2. It appears to spread very easily via community transmission

3. It causes severe respiratory distress, and severe cases appear to be causing permanent (or at least long-term) damage to lungs in the form of fibrosis, even in recovered patients.

Comparatively, the flu is well-known. We have vaccines, we know how it spreads and the ease of transmission, we know what it does to people, and there is plenty of immunity built up in the population

I have had both. Hospitalized for neither.

You THINK you've had both. Unless something has changed since your last post a couple hours ago, you haven't been tested for COVID, so you don't know that you've had it. My brother had COVID-like symptoms, but he just got tested and it turns out he actually has pneumonia (he's waiting on the COVID results, but the doctor says he doesn't think he's got it). A friend of mine, a surgeon, also had some COVID-like symptoms, but her test came back negative.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

No I'm not. The CDC doesn't calculate the death rate of flu based on confirmed cases because it isn't close to being accurate. If they did, the death rate would be off by more than 20x.

Again - for the third time - where are you getting these numbers? I'm unable to find any statistics on the number of positive flu tests per year.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Actually it is working and we are expecting to hit the peak of the curve very soon...I have been told they are hoping for within a week in my state.

Which state is that, if I may ask?

 

[essentialsaltes]

The CDC doesn't calculate the death rate of flu based on confirmed cases because it isn't close to being accurate.

Then why are you trying to calculate it that way?

 

[Al Touthentop]

Then why are you trying to calculate it that way?

I'm not. Why do you think I am? I'm arguing that if it were calculated correctly, it would be closer to the flu death rate.

 

[essentialsaltes]

I'm not. Why do you think I am? I'm arguing that if it were calculated correctly, it would be closer to the flu death rate.

If you compare the actual way that mortality rates are calculated with flu, that is, the denominator of the equation is not confirmed cases but estimated cases, (because in many cases flu is unreported and people recover from it) then covid is actually HALF as deadly as the flu. The 5% mortality numbers are specific to certain areas, not the overall numbers, and are limited to confirmed cases. Flu's mortality rate for when compared to confirmed cases is 2%. Covid-19's is 1% overall.

This has been your source of the claim that flu is 'twice as deadly' as covid-19. Why would you use inaccurate numbers for the basis of your claim?