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Why worry about global warming?

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Greatcloud

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Yeah, that's just not true:
NASA - Is Antarctica Melting?

The most important takeaway:
416685main_20100108_Climate_1.jpg


Antarctica is not only losing ice, but it is doing so at a noticeably accelerating rate, over just seven years! That is incredibly worrying.

Yes the westren peninsula is losing ice but the Ross ice shelf on the east side which is far greater in area is growing in ice. Meanwhile we have record cold in Antarctica.

Record Cold Set At Antarctic Station « P Gosselin – NoTricksZone
 
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Greatcloud

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Revealed: Antarctic ice growing, not shrinking

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Anthony Watts

Source: Cryosphere Today

Greg Roberts | April 18, 2009


Article from: The Australian
ICE is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap.
The results of ice-core drilling and sea ice monitoring indicate there is no large-scale melting of ice over most of Antarctica, although experts are concerned at ice losses on the continent’s western coast.
Antarctica has 90 per cent of the Earth’s ice and 80 per cent of its fresh water. Extensive melting of Antarctic ice sheets would be required to raise sea levels substantially, and ice is melting in parts of west Antarctica. The destabilisation of the Wilkins ice shelf generated international headlines this month.
However, the picture is very different in east Antarctica, which includes the territory claimed by Australia.
East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week’s meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown “significant cooling in recent decades”.
Australian Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison said sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarctica.
“Sea ice conditions have remained stable in Antarctica generally,” Dr Allison said.
The melting of sea ice — fast ice and pack ice — does not cause sea levels to rise because the ice is in the water. Sea levels may rise with losses from freshwater ice sheets on the polar caps. In Antarctica, these losses are in the form of icebergs calved from ice shelves formed by glacial movements on the mainland.
Last week, federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett said experts predicted sea level rises of up to 6m from Antarctic melting by 2100, but the worst case scenario foreshadowed by the SCAR report was a 1.25m rise.
Mr Garrett insisted global warming was causing ice losses throughout Antarctica. “I don’t think there’s any doubt it is contributing to what we’ve seen both on the Wilkins shelf and more generally in Antarctica,” he said.
Dr Allison said there was not any evidence of significant change in the mass of ice shelves in east Antarctica nor any indication that its ice cap was melting. “The only significant calvings in Antarctica have been in the west,” he said. And he cautioned that calvings of the magnitude seen recently in west Antarctica might not be unusual.
“Ice shelves in general have episodic carvings and there can be large icebergs breaking off — I’m talking 100km or 200km long — every 10 or 20 or 50 years.”
Ice core drilling in the fast ice off Australia’s Davis Station in East Antarctica by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-Operative Research Centre shows that last year, the ice had a maximum thickness of 1.89m, its densest in 10 years. The average thickness of the ice at Davis since the 1950s is 1.67m.
A paper to be published soon by the British Antarctic Survey in the journal Geophysical Research Letters is expected to confirm that over the past 30 years, the area of sea ice around the continent has expanded.
 
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Gracchus

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I wonder where the data are on the increased precipitation that is causing the Antarctic ice sheet to increase in area. How much is it increasing in thickness, I wonder?

Do you suppose that it could be increasing in area because it is sliding faster and faster into the sea?

And the source, "Cryosphere Today", does show very marked decreases in ice area in the northern hemisphere. "Cryosphere Today" calls the southern hemisphere growth an "anomaly".

Hmm...

a·nom·a·ly(
schwa.gif
-n
obreve.gif
m
prime.gif
schwa.gif
-l
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)
n. pl. a·nom·a·lies 1. Deviation or departure from the normal or common order, form, or rule.
2. One that is peculiar, irregular, abnormal, or difficult to classify: "Both men are anomalies: they have . . . likable personalities but each has made his reputation as a heavy" (David Pauly).
3. Astronomy The angular deviation, as observed from the sun, of a planet from its perihelion.

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Obviously, they mean either definition one or definition two. What is sure, is that they can't explain it. But then, the Arctic is an ocean enclosed by land, and Antarctica is a continent surrounded by ocean. That probably has something to do with it. The land surrounding the Arctic Ocean is warming, releasing methane from the permafrost. The Arctic Ocean itself is releasing methane from the sea bed as it warms because of the loss of its reflective ice cover. That won't happen in Antarctica until the last inch of ice is gone, and even then, there is probably no permafrost under the icecap.

So, one would expect that the antarctic warming would be slower than in the arctic.

And yet: ScienceDaily (Aug. 15, 2009) — "The thinning of a gigantic glacier in Antarctica is accelerating, scientists report. The Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, which is around twice the size of Scotland, is losing ice four times as fast as it was a decade years ago."

Antarctic Glacier Thinning At Alarming Rate

So perhaps, all is not well in Penguinland, after all.

:wave:
 
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Gracchus

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Georgia Tech on: “the paradox of the Antarctic sea ice” | Watts Up With That?
There is no question about the growth of ice in Anarctica its growing.
Did you even read it before you posted it?
From Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry:
“Our finding raises some interesting possibilities about what we might see in the future. We may see, on a time scale of decades, a switch in the Antarctic, where the sea ice extent begins to decrease…”​
One would expect the Antarctic to warm more slowly than the Arctic. But there is no reason to worry about the poles, when you are deep in de longes' river in Africa.

:doh:
 
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Greatcloud

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Chalnoth

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Yes the westren peninsula is losing ice but the Ross ice shelf on the east side which is far greater in area is growing in ice. Meanwhile we have record cold in Antarctica.

Record Cold Set At Antarctic Station « P Gosselin – NoTricksZone
The image and link are talking about the ice over the entire continent. Repeating your falsehood won't suddenly make it true. The east side of Antarctica may not be losing ice quite as rapidly as the west side, but it is still losing ice.
 
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Chalnoth

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*sigh* You realize that is sea ice, right? That probably means that glaciers are flowing from inland out to sea. The data I quoted was regarding land ice, which is relevant for sea level rise. Overall, Antarctica is losing ice. Yes, some of it is probably going out to sea, leading to a very small increase in sea ice extent. But overall the continent is melting.
 
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Greatcloud

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*sigh* You realize that is sea ice, right? That probably means that glaciers are flowing from inland out to sea. The data I quoted was regarding land ice, which is relevant for sea level rise. Overall, Antarctica is losing ice. Yes, some of it is probably going out to sea, leading to a very small increase in sea ice extent. But overall the continent is melting.

July 30 2011,
Science magazine says that NASA scientists rechecking ice-monitoring data from eastern Antarctica say reports of a big melt from the continent have been exaggerated.

Do you know how much larger the east side is then the west side of Antacrtica ? NASA says they exaggerated, well. A satellite survey shows that between 1992 and 2003, the East Antarctic ice sheet gained about 45 billion tonnes of ice - enough to reduce the oceans' rise by 0.12 millimetres per year. The ice sheets that cover Antarctica's bedrock are several kilometres thick in places, and contain about 90% of the world's ice.
East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 1.8 centimetres per year over the time period studied, the researchers discovered. The region comprises about 75% of Antarctica's total land area - but as its ice is thicker, it carries about 85% of the total ice volume. "It is the only large terrestrial ice body that is gaining mass rather than losing it," says Davis. In January 2008, NASA announced that 190 billion tons of ice were lost in 2006, mainly sea ice in West Antarctica, a region which appears more vulnerable to heavier losses through melting, whereas the East Antarctica ice sheet appears to be thickening over the land area as well as sea ice.
 
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Chalnoth

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July 30 2011,
Science magazine says that NASA scientists rechecking ice-monitoring data from eastern Antarctica say reports of a big melt from the continent have been exaggerated.

Do you know how much larger the east side is then the west side of Antacrtica ? NASA says they exaggerated, well. A satellite survey shows that between 1992 and 2003, the East Antarctic ice sheet gained about 45 billion tonnes of ice - enough to reduce the oceans' rise by 0.12 millimetres per year. The ice sheets that cover Antarctica's bedrock are several kilometres thick in places, and contain about 90% of the world's ice.
East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 1.8 centimetres per year over the time period studied, the researchers discovered. The region comprises about 75% of Antarctica's total land area - but as its ice is thicker, it carries about 85% of the total ice volume. "It is the only large terrestrial ice body that is gaining mass rather than losing it," says Davis. In January 2008, NASA announced that 190 billion tons of ice were lost in 2006, mainly sea ice in West Antarctica, a region which appears more vulnerable to heavier losses through melting, whereas the East Antarctica ice sheet appears to be thickening over the land area as well as sea ice.
Now it is you who is using older data. Cherry pick much?

Here is the source data from the article I posted earlier:
Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements : Abstract : Nature Geoscience

The estimate is 190 billion tons lost total, with 132 billion tons coming from the west Antarctic sheet, and 57 billion tons coming from the east Antarctic sheet between 2002-2009.
 
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Greatcloud

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East Antarctic Ice Sheet getting thicker from underneath

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Anthony Watts
ant.jpg
Image: Montana.edu

From AAAS online:
Widespread Persistent Thickening of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet by Freezing from the Base
Abstract
An International Polar Year aerogeophysical investigation of the high interior of East Antarctica reveals widespread freeze-on that drives significant mass redistribution at the bottom of the ice sheet. While surface accumulation of snow remains the primary mechanism for ice sheet growth, beneath Dome A 24% of the base by area is frozen-on ice. In some places, up to half the ice thickness has been added from below.


These ice packages result from conductive cooling of water ponded near the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountain ridges and supercooling of water forced up steep valley walls. Persistent freeze-on thickens the ice column, alters basal ice rheology and fabric and upwarps the overlying ice sheet, including the oldest atmospheric climate archive, and drives flow behavior not captured in present models.
  • Received for publication 8 November 2010.
  • Accepted for publication 18 February 2011.
antarctica_refrozen_ice.jpg
acquired November 1, 2008 - January 31, 2009


Upending the idea that all ice sheets grow from the accumulation of snow at the top, researchers working in Antarctica have found evidence of large-scale ice-making at the bottom of that continent's massive ice sheets. The surprise finding could change scientists’ understanding of how glaciers rise, fall, and move horizontally across the landscape.
An international research team flew multiple Twin Otter airplane passes over East Antarctica’s Gamburtsev Mountains from November 2008 through January 2009. Equipped with ice-penetrating radar, magnetometers, laser ranging systems, and gravity meters, scientists mapped the topography of the ice surface and of the buried mountain range at the bottom of the ice sheet. The project was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and other international institutions as part of the International Polar Year.
The image above shows a radar profile of the ice as recorded on January 1, 2009, on the south side of Dome A in the Gamburtsevs. The base of the image reveals the rugged land beneath the ice, while the upper edge shows the flat, annual layering typical of ice formation from the top. In between, there is a jumbled mess unlike anything researchers had seen before.
When the science team first examined their radar profiles in real time, they thought there was a mistake, a glitch in the instrument or data. Perhaps the science team was just too tired from the long, cold flights. But further analysis confirmed what they were seeing.
“We usually think of ice sheets like cakes—one layer at a time, added from the top,” said Robin Bell, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “This is like someone injected a layer of frosting at the bottom—a really thick layer.”
Beneath Dome A, a plateau that forms the high point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, at least 24 percent of the ice formed from the bottom up. In other places, as much as half of the ice sheet is made up of this bottom-forming ice.
Researchers believe friction between the ice and land surface, as well as natural heat radiating from the solid earth, can melt significant amounts of water on the underside of an ice sheet. Several years ago, scientists found large lakes underneath the Antarctic ice that were likely formed by such processes. The liquid water is insulated from the extreme cold of the surface air by the ice sheet; the extreme pressure from the overlying ice can also make it harder for water to freeze.
The movement of the ice sheet and the natural flow of water over the landscape can then move some of that water to areas where there is less ice above—meaning less pressure and less insulation. Sometimes the water is squeezed up valley walls. Either way, the result is a quick re-freezing that makes the unusual ice formations shown above. The creation of this bottom ice can deform the shape of the entire ice sheet above.
“Water has always been known to be important to ice sheet dynamics, but mostly as a lubricant,” Bell added. “As ice sheets change, we want to predict how they will change. Our results show that models must include water beneath.”



July 30 2011,
Science magazine says that NASA scientists rechecking ice-monitoring data from eastern Antarctica say reports of a big melt from the continent have been exaggerated.
 
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Chalnoth

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Yeah, I looked at the paper. It doesn't say one single thing about the total rate of ice loss/gain. It merely talks about one specific mechanism for ice gain. It is quite interesting in and of itself, and does have a significant impact on models of future ice loss, but I would expect the authors would be horrified to discover that their work had been tarnished by inclusion in a website like Anthony Watts'.
 
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Greatcloud

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Some Antarctic Ice Is Forming from Bottom

ScienceDaily (Mar. 4, 2011) — Scientists working in the remotest part of Antarctica have discovered that liquid water locked deep under the continent's coat of ice regularly thaws and refreezes to the bottom, creating as much as half the thickness of the ice in places, and actively modifying its structure. The finding, which turns common perceptions of glacial formation upside down, could reshape scientists' understanding of how the ice sheet expands and moves, and how it might react to warming climate, they say.
See Also:

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The study appears in this week's early online edition of the journal Science; it is part of a six-nation study of the invisible Gamburtsev Mountains, which lie buried under as much as two miles of ice.
Ice sheets are well known to grow from the top as snow falls and builds up annual layers over thousands of years, but scientists until recently have known little about the processes going on far below. In 2006, researchers in the current study showed that lakes of liquid water underlie widespread parts of Antarctica. In 2008-2009, they mounted an expedition using geophysical instruments to create 3-D images of the Gamburtsevs, a range larger than the European Alps. The expedition also made detailed images of the overlying ice, and subglacial water.
"We usually think of ice sheets like cakes--one layer at a time added from the top. This is like someone injected a layer of frosting at the bottom--a really thick layer," said Robin Bell, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a project co-leader. "Water has always been known to be important to ice sheet dynamics, but mostly as a lubricant. As ice sheets change, we want to predict how they will change. Our results show that models must include water beneath." The Antarctic ice sheet holds enough fresh water to raise ocean levels 200 feet; if even a small part of it were to melt into the ocean, it could put major coastal cities under water.
The scientists found that refrozen ice makes up 24% of the ice sheet base around Dome A, a 13,800-foot-high plateau that forms the high point of the East Antarctic ice sheet, at 3.8 million square miles roughly the size of the continental United States. In places, slightly more than half the ice thickness appears to have originated from the bottom, not the top. Here, rates of refreezing are greater than surface accumulation rates. The researchers suggest that such refreezing has been going on since East Antarctica became encased in a large ice sheet some 32 million years ago. They may never know for sure: the ice is always moving from the deep interior toward the coast, so ice formed millions of years ago, and the evidence it would carry, is long gone.
Deeply buried ice may melt because overlying layers insulate the base, hemming in heat created there by friction, or radiating naturally from underlying rock. When the ice melts, refreezing may take place in multiple ways, the researchers say. If it collects along mountain ridges and heads of valleys, where the ice is thinner, low temperatures penetrating from the surface may refreeze it. In other cases, water gets squeezed up valley walls, and changes pressure rapidly. In the depths, water remains liquid even when it is below the normal freezing point, due to pressure exerted on it. But once moved up to an area of less pressure, such supercooled water can freeze almost instantly. Images produced by the researchers show that the refreezing deforms the ice sheet upward.
"When we first saw these structures in the field, we thought they looked like beehives and were worried they were an error in the data," Bell said. "As they were seen on many lines, it became clear that they were real. We did not think that water moving through ancient river valleys beneath more than one mile of ice would change the basic structure of the ice sheet."
Because the ice is in motion, understanding how it forms and deforms at the base is critical to understanding how the sheets will move, particularly in response to climate changes, researchers say. "It's an extremely important observation for us because this is potentially lifting the very oldest ice off the bed," said Jeff Severinghaus, a geologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego who was not involved in the study. He said it could either mean older ice is better preserved -- or, it could "make it harder to interpret the record, if it's shuffled like a deck of cards."
From November 2008 to January 2009, the researchers did fieldwork around a California-size part of Dome A. Using aircraft equipped with ice penetrating radars, laser ranging systems, gravity meters and magnetometers, they flew low-altitude transects back and forth over the ice to draw 3-D images of what lay beneath. The aim was to understand how the mountains arose, and to study the connections between the peaks, the ice sheet, and subglacial lakes. They were also hunting for likely spots where future coring may retrieve the oldest ice. The work took place near the Southern Pole of Inaccessibility, the point farthest away from any ocean, and much harder to reach than the South Pole itself. They lived in isolated field camps, enduring high winds and temperatures ranging down to minus 40 degrees C.
"Understanding these interactions is critical for the search for the oldest ice and also to better comprehend subglacial environments and ice sheet dynamics," said Fausto Ferraccioli, a scientist with the British Antarctic Survey who also helped lead the project. "Incorporating these processes into models will enable more accurate predictions of ice sheet response to global warming and its impact on future sea-level rise."
The researchers now will look into how the refreezing process acts along the margins of ice sheets, where the most visible change is occurring in Antarctica. Based on their data, a Chinese team also hopes to drill deep into Dome A in the next two or three years to remove cores that would trace long-ago climate shifts. They hope to find ice more than a million years old.
Other co-authors of the paper include Timothy T. Creyts, Indrani Das, Nicholas Frearson and Michael Wolovik, of Lamont-Doherty; Hugh Corr, Thomas Jordan and Kathryn Rose of the British Antarctic Survey; David Braaten of the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets at Kansas University; Detlef Damaske of Germany's Federal Institute for Geosciences and Resources; and Michael Studinger of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.
The work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and launched in conjunction with the International Polar Year, a 2007-2009 effort to study the poles by thousands of scientists from more than 60 nations. Support also came from the Natural Environment Research Council of Britain; the Australian Antarctic Division; and the Polar Research Institute of China.

The East Antarctic ice sheet is growing you have to remember July 30 2011,
Science magazine says that NASA scientists rechecking ice-monitoring data from eastern Antarctica say reports of a big melt from the continent have been exaggerated. Which means earlier graphs are meaningless.
 
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Chalnoth

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This is the same report. Why'd you repost it?

The East Antarctic ice sheet is growing you have to remember July 30 2011,
Science magazine says that NASA scientists rechecking ice-monitoring data from eastern Antarctica say reports of a big melt from the continent have been exaggerated. Which means earlier graphs are meaningless.
You never posted your source for this claim. But it sounds like it's from ground stations, which simply can't measure total ice loss well. Our best measurements come from the GRACE satellite, which show overall ice loss.
 
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Greatcloud

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HADLEY_DECADE.gif


Here is the big picture ; overall the last 10 years temperature globally is going down. GW is drawing to a slow end. I see the end of the movie now and it is that AGW is a lie. It was natural causes all along.
 
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Chalnoth

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Ten years is not the big picture, it is a small window. You are really hoping to hard.
Indeed. The noise is far too large on 10-year time scales to extract the overall trend.

This plot, for example, misses the point that 10 of the 11 hottest years are included in the span from 2001 to 2010, the hottest of those being 2010.

Here is the plot from the CRU's website:
nhshgl.gif

Source:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

At most there has been a recent pause in the increase in temperatures, but it isn't going to last.
 
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