The Dark Side of the Democratic Environmentalist

Vylo

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Perhaps it should be noted there are 2 environmental movements: conservationism and preservationism. Conservationisn follows the idea of wise use. We still have "dominion" over the earth, but that isn't a license to destroy it. Teddy started this movement, and it is the form of environmentalism I subscribe to.

Preservationism tries to paint humans as separate from nature and nature to be something to be preserved.

I am a democrat and I have been for nuclear power. But I realize nukes are a patch solution, not a permanent one.
 
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JamesD

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HouseApe said:
I find it interesting that you put your faith in Chrichton, a novelist, and not the National Academy of Sciences.

I am not a degreed climatologist, so I am honestly not qualified to discuss global warming. However, when discussing the climate, I would tend to put significantly more weight in the views of the vast majority of climatologists than some guy who wrote a few books about dinosaurs, gorillas and what not.

And suppose the 0.0126% is true. What exactly is the amount we should be concerned about? Consider this, at 32.00000001 degrees Fahrenheit, water is water. Take away .00000001, and it's ice. Is there ever a situation in which such a miniscule amount could be considered important?

No, I do not take Crichton's word for it, I take the word of the plethora of articles and peer reviewed studies he cites, many of which are directly contradictory to the predictions of global warming advocates. He shows how their predictions have failed to accurately predict the weather a year or two in the future, yet we are to believe them when they predict it centuries in advance. He also points out that while the West Antarctic Peninsula is melting, the core of the continent is actually getting colder and freezing, by about 0.7 C I believe, so much so that the continent taken as a whole is freezing. This is when many models predict that Antarctic warming should be of a greater magnitude than that of other areas. He also points out that the world has only been warming since 1970, and was cooling from 1940 to 1975, yet throughout both periods CO2 was rising. Environmentalists say that during that time particulate pollution blocked the suns rays and cooled the Earth, and that with the passage of the Clean Air Act in the 1970's and the removal of the pollution, warming started. Does it seem likely that one country was producing that much smog and that after 1970 we were producing that much less?

The most interesting point was what was called the Urban Heat Island effect. Cities are much hotter than farmland, which is hotter than pastures etc. Throughout this century, many of the temperature stations have had cities expand around them or had cities move closer to them. To account for this, a certain amount is deducted from the raw temperature data. The way that amount is calculated is based on the population of the urban area. Not size, energy use, industry, etc. In cities like Vienna, Austria which has had a roughly constant population of 2 million people throughout this century, this downward adjustment has been constant while the doubling of the cities size and the exponential growth of energy usage there have gone unaccounted for. If a proper adjustment were made, it would show much less warming, or perhaps no warming at all.

On a different note, one can read history and see this all the time. In the 1800's Thomas Malthus predicted that the industrial revolution would destroy mankind, in the 1960's new computer models predicted that we would run out of most metals and other raw materials in a few decades, in the 1970's people worried about a new ice age due to cooling. After 200 years of "doom is just around the corner predictions" I don't understand why people still fall for this stuff.
 
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chaim

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You seem to have completely ignored the fact that most of what Crichton presents in the book is either just plain wrong (such as his percentage of anthropogenic CO2 figures) or grossly missrepresented. There are plenty of climate scientists out there who have taken the time to rebut the junk the Chrichton has presented - so I am only going to address one point he made (and you quoted) as an example. The Urban heat island effect. This is a well understood bias in temperature measurements taken in urban areas which has been accounted for in the instrumental record. (See Hansen et al JGR 2001) Unlike what you claim it has been well demonstrated that these corrections work - there is good agreement between urban measurments and maritime records. Secondly by comapring windy days (when the UHIE is minimized due to advection and mixing) with corrected calm days the temperatures agree. If you have some evidence that the UHIE corrections are not working, you should publish a paper - I am sure it will make quite a stir.

JamesD said:
No, I do not take Crichton's word for it, I take the word of the plethora of articles and peer reviewed studies he cites, many of which are directly contradictory to the predictions of global warming advocates. He shows how their predictions have failed to accurately predict the weather a year or two in the future, yet we are to believe them when they predict it centuries in advance. He also points out that while the West Antarctic Peninsula is melting, the core of the continent is actually getting colder and freezing, by about 0.7 C I believe, so much so that the continent taken as a whole is freezing. This is when many models predict that Antarctic warming should be of a greater magnitude than that of other areas. He also points out that the world has only been warming since 1970, and was cooling from 1940 to 1975, yet throughout both periods CO2 was rising. Environmentalists say that during that time particulate pollution blocked the suns rays and cooled the Earth, and that with the passage of the Clean Air Act in the 1970's and the removal of the pollution, warming started. Does it seem likely that one country was producing that much smog and that after 1970 we were producing that much less?

The most interesting point was what was called the Urban Heat Island effect. Cities are much hotter than farmland, which is hotter than pastures etc. Throughout this century, many of the temperature stations have had cities expand around them or had cities move closer to them. To account for this, a certain amount is deducted from the raw temperature data. The way that amount is calculated is based on the population of the urban area. Not size, energy use, industry, etc. In cities like Vienna, Austria which has had a roughly constant population of 2 million people throughout this century, this downward adjustment has been constant while the doubling of the cities size and the exponential growth of energy usage there have gone unaccounted for. If a proper adjustment were made, it would show much less warming, or perhaps no warming at all.

On a different note, one can read history and see this all the time. In the 1800's Thomas Malthus predicted that the industrial revolution would destroy mankind, in the 1960's new computer models predicted that we would run out of most metals and other raw materials in a few decades, in the 1970's people worried about a new ice age due to cooling. After 200 years of "doom is just around the corner predictions" I don't understand why people still fall for this stuff.
 
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chaim

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PS Have you checked any of the references Chrichton gives?

JamesD said:
No, I do not take Crichton's word for it, I take the word of the plethora of articles and peer reviewed studies he cites, many of which are directly contradictory to the predictions of global warming advocates. He shows how their predictions have failed to accurately predict the weather a year or two in the future, yet we are to believe them when they predict it centuries in advance. He also points out that while the West Antarctic Peninsula is melting, the core of the continent is actually getting colder and freezing, by about 0.7 C I believe, so much so that the continent taken as a whole is freezing. This is when many models predict that Antarctic warming should be of a greater magnitude than that of other areas. He also points out that the world has only been warming since 1970, and was cooling from 1940 to 1975, yet throughout both periods CO2 was rising. Environmentalists say that during that time particulate pollution blocked the suns rays and cooled the Earth, and that with the passage of the Clean Air Act in the 1970's and the removal of the pollution, warming started. Does it seem likely that one country was producing that much smog and that after 1970 we were producing that much less?

The most interesting point was what was called the Urban Heat Island effect. Cities are much hotter than farmland, which is hotter than pastures etc. Throughout this century, many of the temperature stations have had cities expand around them or had cities move closer to them. To account for this, a certain amount is deducted from the raw temperature data. The way that amount is calculated is based on the population of the urban area. Not size, energy use, industry, etc. In cities like Vienna, Austria which has had a roughly constant population of 2 million people throughout this century, this downward adjustment has been constant while the doubling of the cities size and the exponential growth of energy usage there have gone unaccounted for. If a proper adjustment were made, it would show much less warming, or perhaps no warming at all.

On a different note, one can read history and see this all the time. In the 1800's Thomas Malthus predicted that the industrial revolution would destroy mankind, in the 1960's new computer models predicted that we would run out of most metals and other raw materials in a few decades, in the 1970's people worried about a new ice age due to cooling. After 200 years of "doom is just around the corner predictions" I don't understand why people still fall for this stuff.
 
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Vylo

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HouseApe said:
I find it interesting that you put your faith in Chrichton, a novelist, and not the National Academy of Sciences.

I am not a degreed climatologist, so I am honestly not qualified to discuss global warming. However, when discussing the climate, I would tend to put significantly more weight in the views of the vast majority of climatologists than some guy who wrote a few books about dinosaurs, gorillas and what not.

And suppose the 0.0126% is true. What exactly is the amount we should be concerned about? Consider this, at 32.00000001 degrees Fahrenheit, water is water. Take away .00000001, and it's ice. Is there ever a situation in which such a miniscule amount could be considered important?
Actually if you take away that .000001% it's still water.

You have to remove 144 btu of energy per pund of water to convert its state to ice. It takes 144 times the amount of energy to convert water to ice then it does to lower it one degree F. This is refered to as the latent heat of fusion.
 
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JamesD

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Vylo said:
Actually if you take away that .000001% it's still water.

You have to remove 144 btu of energy per pund of water to convert its state to ice. It takes 144 times the amount of energy to convert water to ice then it does to lower it one degree F. This is refered to as the latent heat of fusion.

Someone paid attention in physics class! :thumbsup:
 
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JamesD

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chaim said:
that most of what Crichton presents in the book is either just plain wrong (such as his percentage of anthropogenic CO2 figures) or grossly missrepresented

I made up those figures myself based on the numbers given in "The Inconvenient Truth".

And if you have a link to a site that refutes all this stuff, please post it here or PM it to me, I want to see it.
 
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JamesD

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chaim said:
You seem to have completely ignored the fact that most of what Crichton presents in the book is either just plain wrong (such as his percentage of anthropogenic CO2 figures) or grossly missrepresented. There are plenty of climate scientists out there who have taken the time to rebut the junk the Chrichton has presented - so I am only going to address one point he made (and you quoted) as an example. The Urban heat island effect. This is a well understood bias in temperature measurements taken in urban areas which has been accounted for in the instrumental record. (See Hansen et al JGR 2001) Unlike what you claim it has been well demonstrated that these corrections work - there is good agreement between urban measurments and maritime records. Secondly by comapring windy days (when the UHIE is minimized due to advection and mixing) with corrected calm days the temperatures agree. If you have some evidence that the UHIE corrections are not working, you should publish a paper - I am sure it will make quite a stir.

Someone already did publish such a paper saying the current way the heat island effect is calculated is not correct.

Boehm R "Urban Bias in Temperature Time Series – a Case Study for the City of Vienna, Austria"
 
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JamesD

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On a neutral note, am I the only person whose mad about how it seems like the debate about this is no longer scientific? Whenever I hear people arguing for the belief in global warming, it seems like it is always "look at these studies, and then go buy a hybrid car and vote for Democrats" and when people argue against it it seems like they merely say "this is lies hippies say, etc." I have a hard time trying to sift through all the ********, and that makes me really mad. Show me the data for and against something and let me come to my own conclusion about what it means and what I should do about it.
 
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chaim

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It is nice to have someone who is actually willing to debate this issue based on science and primary sources!

However, the paper you site below is a single case study of a single city, that the authors aknowledge is an outlier. And while it is certainly an ineteresting case, it has little to do with total global instrumental temperature record.

To put things in perspective, the difference between the temperature change in urban areas compared to rural areas over the past ~150 years in 0.05 degrees or about 7%. So the Maximum error even with no correction for the UHIE is 7% - so bringing up the UHIE and saying this disproves the observed warming is a red herring.

Secondly there have been several more recent papers showing that on a globally averaged scale the UHIE is well corrected for for example in Nature from 2004 and also in Peterson et al., in the Journal of Climate 2003.



JamesD said:
Someone already did publish such a paper saying the current way the heat island effect is calculated is not correct.

Boehm R "Urban Bias in Temperature Time Series – a Case Study for the City of Vienna, Austria"
 
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NothingButTheBlood

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Belk said:
I live in Washington which has a large dichotomy on rural/urban. Large sections of the start are rural balanced by a large number of people living in the urban centers of Tacoma and Seattle. I grew up in the rural part of the state and moved to Seattle later on. Having seen both sides I would say that environmentally both tend to be pretty active. I think they just disagree on goals and methods. Personally I think both sides would benefit if they would just stop snipping at each other long enough to see what they have in common. Course, that could be said for several diverse groups in this country. ^_^

When I went to Washington State in 1988 I still smoked. When the bus approached the state line the driver announced you couldn't smoke anymore on the bus. They are really way ahead of the rest of country environmentaly. It's also really beautiful.
 
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