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Global Warming - how much does it matter? What should be done?

eclipsenow

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And I do not have much time for these climate warriors until they accept that the quickest way to reduce CO2 emissions is to go nuclear which is totally safe as there are over 400 of the mini reactors already operating around the world.
I agree! I used to be in despair because I saw that peak oil was coming, climate change was coming, resource wars were coming, but renewables (despite all the free press they get in green media) are really NOT UP TO THE JOB!

Dr James Hansen is *the* climatologist that diagnosed our climate problem — but no one believes him on the solution! He says believing in 100% renewables is like believing in the Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy. Hansen warns not to drink sustainable energy Kool-Aid
Instead he says the world should build 115 reactors a year! Nuclear power paves the only viable path forward on climate change
Here he is with friend Michael Shellenberger at COP23.
Dr Hansen also promotes breeder reactors that eat nuclear waste, converting a 100,000 storage problem into today's energy solution. They only leave 1 golf ball of waste per person-lifetime, which is safe in just 300 years. These reactors really ARE SAFE and can be mass-produced cheap! Molten Salt Reactors *cannot* melt down because they're already a liquid salt. Thorcon have once-through molten salt reactors nearly ready to go at 7c / kwh ThorCon – Powering Up Our World They'll produce the perfect 'waste' for MCSFR's to eat. Elysium Industries
 
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KCfromNC

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Those who are over the moon about renewables do not look at the total picture. To produce a wind farm takes I don't know how much concrete and that concrete has to be produced and the production of it produces copies amounts of CO2 because of the amount of electricity used in producing it, more than the amount of energy it uses to reduce the amount of CO2 used.
To me, this would be a lot more convincing if the middle I don't know parts were replaced by actual numbers.

As it stands, it reads like
1. accuse others of not knowing what they're talking about
2. admit the post doesn't know what it is talking about
3. therefore the post is correct

Seems like the train went off the rails somewhere around step 2.
 
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loveofourlord

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Those who are over the moon about renewables do not look at the total picture. To produce a wind farm takes I don't know how much concrete and that concrete has to be produced and the production of it produces copies amounts of CO2 because of the amount of electricity used in producing it, more than the amount of energy it uses to reduce the amount of CO2 used.

yeah a one time production vs a lifetime production is SO much worse. Reminds me of those that attack wind turbines for how many birds are kiilled, ignoring how many birds are killed by power plants and such every year.
 
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eclipsenow

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yeah a one time production vs a lifetime production is SO much worse. Reminds me of those that attack wind turbines for how many birds are kiilled, ignoring how many birds are killed by power plants and such every year.
Except that it takes hundreds of thousands of wind turbines AND a whole bunch of pumped hydro dam 'batteries' to produce the same amount of power as one nuclear power park!

The nuclear power park doesn't produce global warming, doesn't pollute radioactive waste everywhere like a coal plant does, and actually traps every last scrap of waste. A breeder reactor 'eats' nuclear waste, getting 90 times the energy out of it. A whole lifetime of energy in one golf ball of waste, and it's safe in 300 years.
 
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artie annie

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I agree! I used to be in despair because I saw that peak oil was coming, climate change was coming, resource wars were coming, but renewables (despite all the free press they get in green media) are really NOT UP TO THE JOB!

Dr James Hansen is *the* climatologist that diagnosed our climate problem — but no one believes him on the solution! He says believing in 100% renewables is like believing in the Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy. Hansen warns not to drink sustainable energy Kool-Aid
Instead he says the world should build 115 reactors a year! Nuclear power paves the only viable path forward on climate change
Here he is with friend Michael Shellenberger at COP23.
Dr Hansen also promotes breeder reactors that eat nuclear waste, converting a 100,000 storage problem into today's energy solution. They only leave 1 golf ball of waste per person-lifetime, which is safe in just 300 years. These reactors really ARE SAFE and can be mass-produced cheap! Molten Salt Reactors *cannot* melt down because they're already a liquid salt. Thorcon have once-through molten salt reactors nearly ready to go at 7c / kwh ThorCon – Powering Up Our World They'll produce the perfect 'waste' for MCSFR's to eat. Elysium Industries
I know how the climate change religionists will respond to your post. My religion does not allow me to accept the facts.
 
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artie annie

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To me, this would be a lot more convincing if the middle I don't know parts were replaced by actual numbers.

As it stands, it reads like
1. accuse others of not knowing what they're talking about
2. admit the post doesn't know what it is talking about
3. therefore the post is correct

Seems like the train went off the rails somewhere around step 2.
Sorry to say I am no good at cryptic comment
 
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Francis Drake

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Placing solar panels in space and beaming the energy down in microwaves sounds dangerous, expensive and downright insane, but

what if we beam the microwaves down to a few sites in the Arctic tundra and the solar panels stay clean and efficient for a really long time and generate power around the clock?
We should also try fairy dust, that works also.
The energy any surface receives is directly proportional to its area. So if your solar panel was say 4 times the efficiency of normal sunlight hitting the earth, your orbiting panel would need to be one quarter the size of your arctic tundra just to match normal sunlight!
ie. Fairy dust makes more sense!
 
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KCfromNC

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Sorry to say I am no good at cryptic comment
It was a reference to how the post I was responding to admitted it had no ideas on the numbers but whatever they were, it still led to the predetermined conclusion. It was a bit low-effort to not even make up truthy-sounding figures to get there.
 
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MorkandMindy

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Martian warming is interesting:

What if it is mainly due to rising solar output? What if it is natural?

Does it matter if Global Warming is anthropogenic anyway?

I think the question is whether overall it is good or bad, and whether it will be in the foreseeable future.

Maybe.
Depends on solar activity.
Nothing we can do about that.

For dealing with unknowns or very difficult problems I ask 'what if it is' and 'what if it isn't', and if the answer comes out the same both ways then there is no need to wait for the unknown to be solved because it is the same either way.

Whether Global Warming it anthropogenic is irrelevant, what matters is whether it is bad, and how much is bad. Eliminate GW and the Earth becomes an ice planet, reduce the CO2 too much and everything dies, as nearly happened once back when our ancestors walked the Earth.

The other thing that matters is what can be done that is cost effective, using consistent units, such as CO2 emitted compared with CO2 prevented or captured.
 
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MorkandMindy

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A lot that can be done has negative cost, it saves money energy and stress.

I look at the Interstate and see roughly equal numbers of cars zooming one way and the other. What for? Someone going somewhere to sell someone a pointless heath insurance policy, or a medicaid supplement.

Single-payer healthcare would cost half as much as the insane system we have now, but try to get that through Congress when the Insurance Lobby is the second biggest lobby in Congress with Pharmaceuticals & Health Products as the first.
 
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MorkandMindy

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And many are traveling to huge office buildings full of government administrators there to reject applications for health care plans. If they all just got accepted or with universal healthcare would be superfluous we wouldn't have those vast armies of administrators.

And the enormously complex regulations created out of very simple initial requirements all made to create waste that fills someone's pockets. You read SSA 1905 and decide what it even means. And they don't even keep those administrators up to date on changes in regulations, I get half of them telling me one thing and half saying the opposite.

Do the administrators really want to be there, when with UBD they could be back in their home town making custom hand made coffee mugs or whatever they really actually want to do.
 
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timothyu

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the Insurance Lobby is the second biggest lobby in Congress with Pharmaceuticals & Health Products as the first.
As long as they are holding you hostage you will have less money to go out and drive around. So it is a green agenda on their part.
 
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eclipsenow

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We should also try fairy dust, that works also.
The energy any surface receives is directly proportional to its area. So if your solar panel was say 4 times the efficiency of normal sunlight hitting the earth, your orbiting panel would need to be one quarter the size of your arctic tundra just to match normal sunlight!
ie. Fairy dust makes more sense!

Moon base first
Not so fast! While my signature gives away that I'm a fan of nuclear power, and I think that's the best way to go for the next few hundred years (unless we actually crack fusion, then all bets are off as to which will be the cheapest safest and most reliable energy source), what about in 200 years or 500 years if there's a decent sized city on the moon - capable of manufacturing solar panels and firing them down a big maglev train like a giant rail gun into orbit around the earth? The moon has 1/6 the gravity and so (experts tell us) that means 1/24th the energy to launch: and all that energy would be abundant solar electricity on the moon, not fuels. Indeed, for that matter, what if it's not a city but just a village of VR operated robots from humans back here on earth? We just don't know.

Then PowerSats
Now, once those solar panels are in orbit around the earth they're in 24/7 sunshine. In space. Without an atmosphere mucking up how many photons hit the panels. The energy efficiency is much higher. Then the fact that they can now work almost 24/7 makes up for other inefficiencies in the system. Isaac Arthur (below) says every solar panel would generate about 7 times more power than here on earth.

7 times!

Basically, if Isaac Arthur says PowerSats are nearly economical now, then I'm with him! And if they're nearly economical now, then maybe they'll be ridiculously cheap if we ever build the moon base described above.
 
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eclipsenow

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As long as they are holding you hostage you will have less money to go out and drive around. So it is a green agenda on their part.
Green agenda?
Depends on the shade of green.
I'm a greenie. But I'm not 'Dark Green' with all the doom and gloom of Limits to Growth, Malthusian Collapse, Peak Oil, etc. That is, those are - sadly - potential futures if we muck this up, and becoming more likely every year we avoid serious action on climate change and other sustainability issues. Like overfishing, overhunting, overpolluting, overmining, overgrazing, overfarming, overdrilling, overcutting, overfelling, and generally over-using too many things at once in an unsustainable way. I have read quite a few books on the collapse of civilisation, and it disturbs me as a terrible possibility.

But even if we nuked ourselves back to the stone age and brought on a terrible nuclear winter (one way to solve global warming, I guess! But not recommended! :doh:), I think we'd dig through buried libraries and salvage stuff and get back to the modern world within a generation or 2. 50 years tops?

But equally, I'm also very optimistic that with nuclear power we already have the tools to make it and provide a wonderful, convenient, optimistic modern future for all 10 billion of us by 2050 if we get to work now. So I'm not 'Dark Green', but 'Bright Green' - I'm what is known as an Eco-Modernist. And the future could be very bright indeed.
 
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timothyu

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I think we'd dig through buried libraries and salvage stuff and get back to the modern world within a generation or 2. 50 years tops?
Not when the only survivors are armed wingnuts who clean out all with the presence of mind to be survivalists in a non violent way. The last place they will go is a library.
 
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eclipsenow

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Not when the only survivors are armed wingnuts who clean out all with the presence of mind to be survivalists in a non violent way. The last place they will go is a library.
David Brin made an interesting observation in his novel "The Postman". The internal narrative of the hero, a former history teacher, that was half the point of the book! The movie may have lacked all that, and because I liked the book I didn't want to watch Kevin Kostner mess up another post-apocalyptic story like he did in Waterworld.

Anyway, the observation? A fully armed, tinned-food and ammo kind of survivalist would quickly try and find out where the other fully armed survivalists are and take them out. After all, they're the main threat aren't they?

The winners are communities. We know specialisation is a thing, that certain people are wired to more efficiently do certain jobs. Communities thrive. Lone survivalists might survive - but do they thrive? They're all alone living off borrowed time. Communities are putting back into their local environment, their farms, their soil, and gradually building up a knowledge base to move forward. Eco-survivalists like those peak-oilers at Homepage - Resilience see community as key. I think sheer self-interest would see educated middle class types immediately trying to push for community, for co-operation that benefits all, over the thuggish self-interest of the moment of the lone survivalist. Planning and forethought and ideals, over selfish short term gain. The Printers of the Book of Eli verses the town mayor failing to run a civilised community. Rick from Walking Dead, as opposed to all the 'Road Warriors' he bumps off along the way.

Once they got a community going, what technical hurdles would they face? In some ways their next 'industrial revolution' would be much faster than the first industrial revolution, as we have already learned the laws of physics and chemistry and biology that make the modern world possible. The mechanics and techs from the village would wait a while before exploring radioactive bombed out cities. Once safe, the salvage crews might rig a few horses up to whatever trailer is lying around (hollowed out school bus? Truck trailer?) and take their rations, plenty of drinking water, and go spend a week or so working through the local bombed out city. They're looking for energy systems like wind turbines, solar panels, and the tools and solder and kit that make them work. They're looking for tinned food and ammo that isn't too old or expired. For excess fuel and wood, for whatever helps build their community.

Crucially, they're looking for books, for something just to read for entertainment - never forget the value of entertainment at the end of the world when everything is so quite and boring! But also for engineering manuals that have instructions for future projects. Once their village has food supply issues sorted, they've got a lot more time on their hands now that there are no new TV shows to watch. Night time hobbies around candles quickly become night time hobbies around solar battery powered lamps. Things improve as they continue to scavenge and salvage. One thing they could have ample of, lying around, that the first industrial revolution didn't have is metal. Even farm belts would have heaps of useless cars scattered around, and it could be ample for years to come.

They'd get things up and running eventually, even if the local workshop had to stop working on cloudy days because their solar panels maxed out.

Smart survivalists might have seen the war coming and downloaded and printed out this "Civilisation starter kit" to have some knowledge to trade. Machines : Index | Open Source Ecology (It's a step by step guide on how to build the top 50 industrial tools that make the modern world possible, but out of spare parts you might find in a hardware store or salvage from a factory.) But if not, other places will have their technical people dig up and study old manuals (by candlelight?) in the evenings as what else are you going to do in a barely powered Amish lifestyle wishing for better things? They'll research that next component to salvage for their next project.

Bit by bit society would build up again, but in a more walkable, human based city plan. Energy would be more valuable and prioritised for the most important survival and salvaging efforts. That is, until finally someone gets the nukes started again. Once they get breeder reactors up and running, any nuclear waste in that country becomes an incredible asset that could power the nation for centuries to come.
 
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