Coronavirus more deadly than the flu?

Al Touthentop

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This has been your source of the claim that flu is 'twice as deadly' as covid-19. Why would you use inaccurate numbers for the basis of your claim?

I was saying that when you use inaccurate numbers, you get the wrong picture. I wasn't arguing that we should start using inaccurate numbers. Cut it out.

If you compare the SAME numbers, then flu actually is more deadly than covid-19. Until we get good estimates as to how many actual cases there are, confirmed and extrapolated, the current reporting is not accurate.
 
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essentialsaltes

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I was saying that when you use inaccurate numbers, you get the wrong picture.

OK, so you agree that flu isn't twice as deadly as covid-19. Or at least, we certainly don't know that it is with any accuracy? At this point, in your view, the proper stance is to be agnostic about the death rate of covid-19?

If you compare the SAME numbers

the same inaccurate numbers? Why would anyone do that?
 
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Al Touthentop

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Vylo

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stevil

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This isn't a conspiracy by government to fool people, it's a conspiracy of media idiocy.
The media aren't shutting down borders and travel and aren't forcing countries into lockdown.

It's just unfortunate there are masses of uneducated people trying to spread rubbish on the internet and trying to contradict the experts.
 
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Al Touthentop

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OK, so you agree that flu isn't twice as deadly as covid-19. Or at least, we certainly don't know that it is with any accuracy? At this point, in your view, the proper stance is to be agnostic about the death rate of covid-19? the same inaccurate numbers? Why would anyone do that?

Why would we use calculations that we know are inappropriate for every other disease we track? Can you answer that with anything reasonable?

If you compare the actual number of deaths against confirmed cases in the US only, the "wrongly" calculated death rate is 1.4% It's not anywhere near 5% and it's less than the flu's 2%. It apparently has climbed up some since the time there were about 200 deaths. The purpose of this information (showing that we're not comparing apples to apples) is to inject a bit of sanity into the discussion. And frankly, we ought to actually think about the economic damage we're doing when we do not take such extreme action for other diseases, which are demonstrably more deadly.

The death rate number is itself an attempt to inform us of the danger of a disease. To report it as being up to 100 times more significant than it is, is to just beg people to panic. Why would we want that?
 
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blackribbon

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Your own numbers show a less than .1% mortality rate....

Why are you arguing this? Is it more about "winning" than having an intelligent discussion? Even you admitted that there is no real numbers that exist because we don't measure or test every case...you can't get numbers even though some people try.

Both kill way to many people. Percentages are dependent on parameters and are used to find useful information. This argument doesn't bring any useful info to light. It is back and forth for NO REASON at all. There is no right answer.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Your own numbers show a less than .1% mortality rate....

Are you kidding me? They're not "MY" numbers. They're compiled by the CDC. And they are not calculated using confirmed cases as the denominator. Were that the calculation, then flu mortality would be 2% not .1%. And it would still be higher than Covid-19 which has a mortality rate calculated against confirmed cases of 1.4%.
 
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Vylo

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Are you kidding me? They're not "MY" numbers. They're compiled by the CDC. And they are not calculated using confirmed cases as the denominator. Were that the calculation, then flu mortality would be 2% not .1%. And it would still be higher than Covid-19 which has a mortality rate calculated against confirmed cases of 1.4%.
We work with what numbers we have. The top infectious disease authority in our country feels pretty comfortable doing it. WHO seems comfortable doing it. I'll trust them.
 
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Al Touthentop

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The media aren't shutting down borders and travel and aren't forcing countries into lockdown.

But they are begging for it to be done and trying to convince us that it is necessary.
It's just unfortunate there are masses of uneducated people trying to spread rubbish on the internet and trying to contradict the experts.

Yeah. Tell me what you think of the masses of people who contradict experts who claim God doesn't exist? Should they just shut up?
 
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Vylo

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But they are begging for it to be done and trying to convince us that it is necessary.

Because it is. The only nations that have recuperated from this outbreak have either had extensive early testing, which is no longer an option for us, or have locked down large segments of their country to slow/stop the spread.

The only other option is to sacrifice a huge number of americans to the disease for the sake of the economy, which could backfire if enough people die. Then you would end up with not only a cratered economy, but a massive pile of dead to go along with it.
 
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Kentonio

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I have had both. Hospitalized for neither. Given the option, I'd take the Covid19 every time..

Impressive considering that just 45 minutes before posting this you’d just said you thought Covid might be going through your household at the moment but you hadn't been tested. Now you’re confidently stating that not only have you had it, but it’s not really that bad. Ok then..
 
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Kentonio

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I'm not. Why do you think I am? I'm arguing that if it were calculated correctly, it would be closer to the flu death rate.

Why do you keep making stupid unsupported claims that disagree with the top medical minds in the world? Like when you claimed that two diseases are the same because you didn’t understand what ‘clinically indistinguishable’ actually meant. Do you really think that you’ve worked something out sat on the internet that scientists and healthcare professionals around the world are just too dumb to see because obviously none of them have your amazing intellect?
 
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Vylo

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Why are you arguing this? Is it more about "winning" than having an intelligent discussion? Even you admitted that there is no real numbers that exist because we don't measure or test every case...you can't get numbers even though some people try.

Both kill way to many people. Percentages are dependent on parameters and are used to find useful information. This argument doesn't bring any useful info to light. It is back and forth for NO REASON at all. There is no right answer.
There is a right answer, and that is the one come to by experts in the field who literally have said this disease is over 10x deadly as the flu. Burying your head in the sand doesn't change that. But people are doing it to push a dangerous agenda that could kill hundreds of thousands of Americans, including members of my family.
 
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RocksInMyHead

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Have you actually looked at the links that I've already posted more than once? It takes like 2 seconds to type in CDC and flu deaths 2019 to get to them.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates
I have, and it shows 29,000-59,000 deaths. What I DON'T see is the number of confirmed cases that you're dividing the number of deaths by to get 2%. Mathematically, that number would have to be between 1.1 and 2.5 million. I don't see any number in that range on the page you linked.

Edit: found it. And you're still wrong, actually. There have been 1.1 million flu tests this flu season, but only 230,000 or so tested positive.
 
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rambot

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Well then, you must really be concerned about ebola...it has something like a 80% mortality.

The truth is the mortality rates of the flu vary from year to year depending on the strain and how many people got vaccinated. In the 2017-18 season, over 80,000 people died in the US related to the flu. Anyone remember the country being closed down that winter? I do remember that we had isolation cart in front of almost every patient room that winter and our unit took patients that we normally wouldn't take since we also took overflow postpartum and newborn couplets.

There is no set figure...and it is silly to argue over which is more deadly since we will never have a real count of most of the flu cases or the Covid19 cases. At best, we will have how many of the people sick enough for hospitalization died.

I have had both. Hospitalized for neither. Given the option, I'd take the Covid19 every time...but I got a light case and was not run down like the times I have had the flu. Honestly, December's unnamed "flu-like" virus was worse than either. I get that some people are getting very sick...but they are also getting very sick related to the flu and the "flu-like" virus. The very sick and died group is the minority for all three viruses. The luxury of living in a first world country. Fighting over death rates is definitely a "first world problem". It is more deadly and dangerous in third world cultures and will continue to be long after we don't think about Covid19 anymore.

The better fight would be what populations are most susceptible and need our help, both financially and with manpower. I hope as soon as we get our feet under us and our economy going again, that we don't forget those that won't get back to normal for a very long time...and their "normal" is nowhere near our standards of living.

I also hope that hospitals and states take having a pandemic emergency plan will finally become a priority to the point that protocols and planning becomes more than lip service.
80000? The CDC reported 34500 cases in 2018.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Why would we use calculations that we know are inappropriate for every other disease we track? Can you answer that with anything reasonable?

I didn't do that. I asked if your position is that we just don't know what the death rate for covid-19 is, since we only have 'inappropriate calculations'. If it is your position, maybe you could stick to that, instead of continuing to say that it is less than that of the flu.
 
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stevil

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But they are begging for it to be done and trying to convince us that it is necessary.
Only in USA does a president set official government policy by what he sees and hears in opinion pieces on the media.
Other governments hire experts and their prime minister, or president takes actions based on the advice of the experts.

Yeah. Tell me what you think of the masses of people who contradict experts who claim God doesn't exist? Should they just shut up?
Please stay on topic.
 
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whatbogsends

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Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

In the past 6 months:

Deaths from flu (in the US alone):

23,00-59,000

Since December COVID in the US:

586 deaths.

Doctors visits from flu in the US alone.

17 - 25 MILLION.

Hospitalizations for flu in the US alone:

370,000 to 710,000.

It's not even comparable. Covid-19, compared to flu is a puppy.

You posted this yesterday. The 586 deaths from COVID was correct at the time you posted it. 26 hours later, the number is 849. We'll be over 1000 tomorrow. Those flu numbers won't be changing. COVID's numbers will be increasing at increasing rates.

It's not even comparable. Given enough traction, COVID19 will make having the flu seem like a walk in the park.
 
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stevil

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If you compare the actual number of deaths against confirmed cases in the US only, the "wrongly" calculated death rate is 1.4% It's not anywhere near 5% and it's less than the flu's 2%.
This is how misinformation spreads.
Someone who knows nothing to very little. Thinks he is smarter than everyone else (doesn't listen to experts even though expert information is readily available) and goes around spreading his uneducated theories as an alternate to the known facts. Trump does this and someone we know on the internet is doing this also.

They keep repeating, post after post after post. Hoping someone will start to think it is fact and start spreading it onto others.


The death rate number is itself an attempt to inform us of the danger of a disease. To report it as being up to 100 times more significant than it is, is to just beg people to panic. Why would we want that?
No-one wants to panic people. The media are just stating the facts. There are also many scientists stating facts also. In Trump's daily media briefing he has a scientist there contradicting him. Listen to what the scientist says, ignore Trump.
 
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