Vicomte13
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- Jan 6, 2016
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Secularism is the most likely threat. I do not think Islam is much of a threat in the long term, as the bulk of how it is practiced will not withstand modernity.
I perceive things differently, from an essentially Darwinian position.
Since the onset of birth control - particularly the Pill in 1961 - the "white" birth rate has imploded all over the world. No white population in any country is at replacement level, all are aging, and all have children well below the replacement rate. In all "white" countries, immigrant minorities and their domestically born children, are coming into the world at higher and higher rates, and the native "white" populations are plunging everywhere - due to contraception and abortion.
There is not one "white" country where this is not true.
The replacement populations differ by region. Everywhere in Europe, the replacement populations are Muslim. (In Russia, the replacement populations are Muslim and East Asian.) In America, the replacement population is mostly Latino.)
The percentage of Catholics in the society has grown dramatically, and will continue to do so, inevitably, because Latinos are overwhelmingly Catholic. Sure, there is some conversion, but mostly Latinos come in Catholics, and stay Catholic, and have a lot more children than whites. There is nothing that can break this trend other than a rise in the white birth rate, and there is not even a faint cloud of hope of that on the horizon. Rather, as the white population ages, the fertility rate spirals downward. America's future is to be a Spanish-speaking Catholic country.
As you may expect, I have no trouble with this at all.
But Europe is a different story. The same demographic death spiral is at work there too, but the Europeans are much farther down the spiral. They are older. They have lower fertility and fewer babies. And their countries are not filling up with Catholics - they are filling up with Muslims.
Islam is not weakening in Europe, at all. It is strong, growing, and increasingly confident that, with time, Islam will prevail. There is no particular reason, looking at Islam, to have any basis for hope of any modification. Islam is becoming more aggressive and conservative, not less so.
If I were a betting man, I would say that the most likely future of the United States and Canada are to become Los Estados Unidos Norte Americanos - and for the Latino majority to adopt the birth control habits of the whites, eventually.
I would say that the likely future of Europe is Sharia 2070.
I see nothing indicating any likelihood that course will be reversed. Religiously, Christianity in Europe is shriveled and moribund, a cultural echo, not something that any more than 10% of the population really practices. There are more convicted atheists and seculars than practicing Christians. But the atheists and seculars are contracepting their future away too. The Muslims are not, and their religious sense has strengthened in the past 30 years, not weakened. They are winning, and they know it. They view the demographic death spiral of the European population as the judgment of God, as God giving them the continent. It is the manifest destiny of the Islam to incorporate Europe within its boundaries. The Muslims believe that this i the judgement of God, and they believe that with the same intensity - and for the same basic reasons - that the Americans believed that it was America's manifest destiny to sweep aside the Indians and control the continent.
The situation is dire and the hour is late, but the things required to reverse the trend are not on the cards.
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