UK: Is Truss doomed?

[mindlight]

Liz Truss is in big trouble. The markets completely rejected her economic strategy and she fired her Chancellor of the Exchequer in a damage limitation strategy that could yet cost her job.

Not having any divine guidance on her longevity I made a bet with my wife about 2-3 weeks into her time as PM that the Tories would probably keep her until the next election. I did not think she had time to implement her risky strategy to a sufficient extent to yield helpful results before then, so I expected her to then lose at the next election. My wife said she would go before that time. We bet a Mcdonalds' Big Mac Meal on this, so the stakes are high!

Who do you think will win the bet? Will Truss go at the next election, before that or after that?

 

[Dale]

Liz Truss is in big trouble. The markets completely rejected her economic strategy and she fired her Chancellor of the Exchequer in a damage limitation strategy that could yet cost her job.

Not having any divine guidance on her longevity I made a bet with my wife about 2-3 weeks into her time as PM that the Tories would probably keep her until the next election. I did not think she had time to implement her risky strategy to a sufficient extent to yield helpful results before then, so I expected her to then lose at the next election. My wife said she would go before that time. We bet a Mcdonalds' Big Mac Meal on this, so the stakes are high!

Who do you think will win the bet? Will Truss go at the next election, before that or after that?

It surprises me that the markets rejected a very conservative economic strategy, but they did.

You seem to think that her approach of tax cuts for the rich could yield positive results in the long run. Why do you think that? I don't see how it will help at all.

 

[MyOwnSockPuppet]

I think the idea of borrowing enough money to build and equip two aircraft carriers (my favourite unit of measurement - 1 Aircraft Carrier = roughly £20 billion) and using the money to finance tax cuts for the highest few thousand taxpayers in the vague hope that the savings will trickle down if they just [really, really redacted] it up the wall with sufficient force (I'm pretty sure that US Republicans in the past have referred to this as "voodoo economics") rather than something that might actually produce a return on investment or something which might be of some benefit to the country.

 

[mindlight]

It surprises me that the markets rejected a very conservative economic strategy, but they did.

You seem to think that her approach of tax cuts for the rich could yield positive results in the long run. Why do you think that? I don't see how it will help at all.

The problem in the UK for many years has been low growth and high borrowing. Liz Truss's strategy was wrong because she increased borrowing at a time when inflation was rising and interest rates with it. This was only going to lead to an increased budget deficit and a spiraling down of the public finances. By boosting inflation with tax cuts she was also adding to the cost of borrowing and the standard of living crisis for the vast majority of people. It was a very poorly timed strategy.

That said the ideological position that growth tends to come from the private sector rather than the public one is correct. Though in practice it always needs moderating to ensure that no one gets left behind. In the long run, reducing regulation and taxes should produce growth. But she only has two years before the next general election and with the war still in progress, there was never going to be any real growth right now.

The markets panicked and asked the legitimate question: How are you going to pay for this?

 

[mindlight]

I think the idea of borrowing enough money to build and equip two aircraft carriers (my favourite unit of measurement - 1 Aircraft Carrier = roughly £20 billion) and using the money to finance tax cuts for the highest few thousand taxpayers in the vague hope that the savings will trickle down if they just [really, really redacted] it up the wall with sufficient force (I'm pretty sure that US Republicans in the past have referred to this as "voodoo economics") rather than something that might actually produce a return on investment or something which might be of some benefit to the country.

Britain's two aircraft carriers together cost 7.6 billion which is a fair price for some decent kit.

Britain is in a bind because of BREXIT. Some big names have fled the country due to the loss of the EU markets. After BREXIT came the Pandemic and then War and that in a country not fully recovered from the Financial crisis of 2008. The feeling is of a no-growth, high-debt economy that needs a kick-start. None of the plans of the redistribution of wealth are going to work for Britain until those basic issues are resolved.

Liz Truss figured she could attract the world's players with low taxes and low regulation. But she is doing this against the flow of the natural order and the realities on the ground.

 

[Goonie]

Liz Truss is in big trouble. The markets completely rejected her economic strategy and she fired her Chancellor of the Exchequer in a damage limitation strategy that could yet cost her job.

Not having any divine guidance on her longevity I made a bet with my wife about 2-3 weeks into her time as PM that the Tories would probably keep her until the next election. I did not think she had time to implement her risky strategy to a sufficient extent to yield helpful results before then, so I expected her to then lose at the next election. My wife said she would go before that time. We bet a Mcdonalds' Big Mac Meal on this, so the stakes are high!

Who do you think will win the bet? Will Truss go at the next election, before that or after that?

I knew she was hopeless, but I can’t believe anyone expected the sheer incompetence that has seen her trash her reputation less than a month after being appointed leader. As to whether she will last until the next election, I can’t see it, at this point she has zero authority, zero mandate, and has u-turned on every policy that got her elected.

 

[Larniavc]

In the long run, reducing regulation and taxes should produce growth

When has that ever happened?

 

[mindlight]

I knew she was hopeless, but I can’t believe anyone expected the sheer incompetence that has seen her trash her reputation less than a month after being appointed leader. As to whether she will last until the next election, I can’t see it, at this point she has zero authority, zero mandate, and has u-turned on every policy that got her elected.

It is not the best basis for a long-lasting premiership! But I am not sure Tory party rules allow them to dismiss a new leader having just selected her. But then there was also a convention about not ditching a PM who wins a no-confidence vote and that did not stop them with Boris. Think my wife is going to win this bet.

 

[mindlight]

When has that ever happened?

Thatcher, who was probably Truss's role model here.

 

[Goonie]

It is not the best basis for a long-lasting premiership! But I am not sure Tory party rules allow them to dismiss a new leader having just selected her. But then there was also a convention about not ditching a PM who wins a no-confidence vote and that did not stop them with Boris. Think my wife is going to win this bet.

Rules can be changed, and the 1922 committee will be under considerable pressure to do so.

 

[MyOwnSockPuppet]

Britain's two aircraft carriers together cost 7.6 billion which is a fair price for some decent kit.

Britain is in a bind because of BREXIT. Some big names have fled the country due to the loss of the EU markets. After BREXIT came the Pandemic and then War and that in a country not fully recovered from the Financial crisis of 2008. The feeling is of a no-growth, high-debt economy that needs a kick-start. None of the plans of the redistribution of wealth are going to work for Britain until those basic issues are resolved.

Liz Truss figured she could attract the world's players with low taxes and low regulation. But she is doing this against the flow of the natural order and the realities on the ground.

I'm an idiot, I managed to miss out the "battle group" in the measurement description (so you're adding 2 destroyers, 2 frigates, probably an SSN, at least one tanker and an air wing of 35 F-35Bs and probably a dozen assorted helicopters, overall it all adds up to about the right number.

Absolutely agree with you about Brexit too.

 

[Dale]

Thatcher, who was probably Truss's role model here.

I watched CBS Evening news for October 15.

They said "the knives are out" for PM Liz Truss.

 

[mindlight]

I watched CBS Evening news for October 15.

They said "the knives are out" for PM Liz Truss.

I watched her BBC interview today also. She is in an impossible situation and it is hard to see how she gets out of this. The only argument I can think of in her favor is that since the Tories are unlikely to win the next election on present performance then whoever becomes PM now receives a poisoned chalice. Maybe Sivac could have pulled this round, maybe Hunt still can. As always time will tell.

 

[Goonie]

With the home secretary resigning, the whips 'non-resigning', she is toast.

 

[mindlight]

With the home secretary resigning, the whips 'non-resigning', she is toast.

I heard an interesting comment on the BBC about this from the political editor. He was talking about how this was one version of the BREXIT ideology that motivated leaving Europe. The idea was that we become a sort of offshore Singapore version of a European economy, more efficient and more dynamic. If this vision is now toast then why did we leave the EU in the first place?

Also, I note that the Tory Party membership wanted Truss and the MPs wanted the more economically savvy Sivac. If there is a new election I guess this reality gap will persist in the selection of a possible new leader.

 

[Goonie]

 

[Goonie]

She got that right.

 

[mindlight]

Wow, that was quick. My wife wins the bet. I should have waited until Trussonomics was spelled out in her budget until I made it.

 

[Goonie]

Wow, that was quick. My wife wins the bet. I should have waited until Trussonomics was spelled out in her budget until I made it.

And the new pm will be elected by end of month, with the help of the members….
Badenoch, and Braverman have already indicated they are standing, oh dear, the Tories are still digging their grave.

 

[Goonie]

Wow, that was quick. My wife wins the bet. I should have waited until Trussonomics was spelled out in her budget until I made it.

Well with Brady confirming party members will choose the pm, and boris Johnson running to be pm again, according to polls if he’s one of the two he wins easily.