Trump's behavior indicates that he believes the polls show him behind. Do you believe he is behind?

[Hans Blaster]

Past experience.

For example the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th Sep 2014. There was an ICM Poll on 11 Sep which had 'Yes' 7% ahead which led to a frantic cascade of new promises and measures encouraging people to vote 'no'.

From every election you could probably find similar examples.

In your election polling they seem to throw the kitchen sink at Trump but so far he has been victorious. God Bless

This is one of the reasons people pay for polling. They want to understand the electorate and their current thinking. If it's bad for them (and it was for the "no" people in your example) they can change their tactics and expand their efforts. If they had done nothing additional, perhaps the result would have been more like the original poll. (In this case, knowing that the "YES" vote was relatively popular and had a current majority, may have convinced people who didn't want independence that they should make the effort to vote or encourage "soft yes" voters they know to change their minds.)

Whether you think "NO" or "YES" was the better choice in this case, the polling was clearly informed people about the positions of their fellow Scots and thus allowed them to make more informed decisions.

 

[Hans Blaster]

....but this time, he actually wants to win....now that he has knows he can exploit the US Government for his benefit.

Mostly to avoid prosecution for his massive criminal exposure. Plus, the skim isn't bad either.

 

[wing2000]

Mostly to avoid prosecution for his massive criminal exposure. Plus, the skim isn't bad either.

...yea, avoiding retirement behind bars is strong incentive as well.

 

[lismore]

This is one of the reasons people pay for polling. They want to understand the electorate and their current thinking. If it's bad for them (and it was for the "no" people in your example) they can change their tactics and expand their efforts.

Yes. That's why I said polls are more designed to influence opinion than reflect it. God Bless

 

[SimplyMe]

I think it's safe to say, it's not as bad as it looks for Trump, and I think I'll stick with "safe" for now.

It would seem many Republican Senators disagree with you. Several Republican Senators have actually started to criticize Trump in their campaign speeches, rather than wanting to appear with the President.

 

[Sparagmos]

Past experience.

For example the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th Sep 2014. There was an ICM Poll on 11 Sep which had 'Yes' 7% ahead which led to a frantic cascade of new promises and measures encouraging people to vote 'no'.

From every election you could probably find similar examples.

In your election polling they seem to throw the kitchen sink at Trump but so far he has been victorious. God Bless

Except polls are generally correct within the stated margin of error. If a polling company is consistently wrong in their predictions, no one would hire them.

 

[lismore]

Except polls are generally correct within the stated margin of error. If a polling company is consistently wrong in their predictions, no one would hire them.

But that is often shown not to be the case. IN an American context there's a famous picture of Harry S Truman holding up a newspaper saying 'Dewey wins election' and laughing! That headline was based on the rubbish pollsters churned out.
Epic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure

 

[Bobber]

One would have thought the Egyptians were going to beat Israel at the Red Sea too. Didn't happen. There was a surprise. Could be wrong but just something all about this I feel Trump is going to win.

 

[Sparagmos]

But that is often shown not to be the case. IN an American context there's a famous picture of Harry S Truman holding up a newspaper saying 'Dewey wins election' and laughing! That headline was based on the rubbish pollsters churned out.
Epic miscalls and landslides unforeseen: The exceptional catalog of polling failure

I don’t think 70 year old polling is relevant. Most polling in recent years has been accurate. In other words, it’s more likely to be accurate than not. And they get more and more sophisticated, and pollsters learn from past mistakes.

 

[Triumvirate]

Said polling ahead in popular, but personally am not convinced on electoral college yet.

But that's more to do with GOP/loaded SCOTUS cheating and refusing to count postal votes in certain states after polling day, combined with postal service shenanigans.

(Seriously why don't y'all just have one single date for that nationally locked down )

 

[lismore]

I don’t think 70 year old polling is relevant.

Well the 2016 election is referenced in the article provided

 

[lismore]

Here's a poll puts Trump ahead

i24NEWS

 

[Sparagmos]

Well the 2016 election is referenced in the article provided

The polls were mostly correct in the 2016 election. It was a very close and Trump won be a small margin and lost the popular vote. Yet again, that is one time. To say that most polls are incorrect doesn’t hold up.

 

[rambot]

Nationally poll numbers are bad but those swing states have to swing.

Can't deny numbers but that doesn't ensure victory. The message of "we campaign like we're behind" has been a Biden fixture for a few weeks

 

[wing2000]

One would have thought the Egyptians were going to beat Israel at the Red Sea too. Didn't happen. There was a surprise. Could be wrong but just something all about this I feel Trump is going to win.

Oh, the red sea is receding....

 

[FireDragon76]

Maybe now the greater concern is losing the senate.

If the Senate is lost by Republicans, I expect Trump to be removed if he is re-elected. Democrats and Independents aren't going to put up with 4 more years of this nonsene if we don't have to.

 

[Fantine]

I don't know how well the polls are reflecting how voting is up among millenials, blacks, Hispanics, etc. I think Biden actually be performing better than the polls.
I heard Florida waa rejecting .8% of Democratic mail in ballots and .3% of Republicans. That's not terrible. We still have mail sabotage to contend with.
I think when people saw how the mails were sabotaged they decided to vote early. We did.
But I think the most motivated voters are blacks and younger voters.
Blacks because of BLM and what they perceive (correctly, I think) as Trump racism.
Youth because they are overwhelmingly progressive. My 3 adult children think I'm conservative (in comparison to them.) They wanted Bernie. They think AOC will be president someday. Medicare for all.
They know the courts can veto every piece of progressive legislation passed for years and think we need to expand the courts. I agree.
His disregard for publuc health and safety disgusts them. COVID afflicts black and Hispanics disproportionately.
As i said, we need to knock off a few points to counteract DeJoy, armed poll intimidates, and other factors.
Wisconsin and Michigan both had Republican governors in 2016. They Don't anymore. Voter suppression will be less active.
High turnout favors Biden.

 

[The Ant]

One would have thought the Egyptians were going to beat Israel at the Red Sea too. Didn't happen. There was a surprise. Could be wrong but just something all about this I feel Trump is going to win.

Sorry, but you’re going to be terribly disappointed.

 

[Bobber]

Sorry, but you’re going to be terribly disappointed.

Nope I won't. Even if Trump loses I don't let anything from the natural realm steal my joy. Neh 8:10 I'm committed to rejoice in the Lord always and to put on the garment of praise Is 61:3 for anything that could make me feel down. My Lord said for me not to let my heart be troubled knowing all of this present world is temporal. Jn 14:1 // 2 Cor 4:18

 

[Bobber]

If the Senate is lost by Republicans, I expect Trump to be removed if he is re-elected. Democrats and Independents aren't going to put up with 4 more years of this nonsene if we don't have to.

You're so sure Independents are committed to the Dems?