Trump's behavior indicates that he believes the polls show him behind. Do you believe he is behind?

Do you believe...

  • Trump is behind in the national popular vote & behind in the electoral vote

    Votes: 35 77.8%
  • Trump is behind in the national popular vote & ahead in the electoral vote

    Votes: 5 11.1%
  • Trump is ahead in the national popular vote & ahead in the electoral vote

    Votes: 5 11.1%
  • Trump is ahead in the national popular vote & behind in the electoral vote

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    45

CitizenD

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Trump is sulky, angrier than usual, and doesn't appear to even be trying to reach out to voters at his latest rallies. Sure he's still going through the motions of his continuous denial of his unpopularity, but it has become clear that the man truly believes that he is behind in the election. Read the man's behavior not his words (obviously, since he lies constantly).

What about you? Do you believe Trump is behind?

Edit: A list of Trump's behavior

1. He is campaigning hard in places like Arizona, which need to be solidly in his column to win. Eg: he is on the defense.
2. Trump stopped running advertising in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa. These are must win states for him, just like AZ. But he gave up there. Oh well!
3. Trump is criticizing the electoral machinery itself. Not to fix it, but to cast doubt on the absentee ballots that are likely to send Biden over the top.
 
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Yttrium

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Well, I look at:

- His base, which notably includes Christian social conservatives and a depressingly large number of fans of whacky conspiracy theories. They're still with him.

- Mainstream Republicans not in the first group. He's been losing a portion of this group due to his behavior. Some have left the party, some have been pushed out for not being blindly loyal to Trump.

- Gullible people not in the other groups. Trump is a great con man, and fooled a lot of people. He's lost much of this group, as he didn't live up to their expectations.

- People who hate Hillary Clinton not in the other groups. He lost this group, since Hillary isn't running this time.

Trump isn't even trying to appeal beyond his base these days, so considering he lost the popular vote last time, this time he's pretty much doomed.
 
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Kentonio

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Trump is sulky, angrier than usual, and doesn't appear to even be trying to reach out to voters at his latest rallies. Sure he's still going through the motions of his continuous denial of his unpopularity, but it has become clear that the man truly believes that he is behind in the election. Read the man's behavior not his words (obviously, since he lies constantly).

What about you? Do you believe Trump is behind?

The polling is absolutely savage for him. I keep reading opinion pieces saying 'Biden is well ahead in national polling BUT it's much closer in the vital swing states!'. Except, no it isn't particularly. Even if all the other dominos fall into place for him, Trump needs Pennsylvania because he certainly isn't winning WI or MI this time. And Biden is also leading in Penn, outside the margin of error. Meanwhile Trump is neck and neck in Florida, behind in Georgia and even having a scare in Texas.

Trump is scared because Trump can see his path to victory is closing to the point of being non-existent. Yes, there could be some last second shock event that still swings it his way, but right now he's lined up to lose badly, and that's not a nice feeling for anyone, let alone someone with his narcissistic personality.
 
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CitizenD

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The polling is absolutely savage for him. I keep reading opinion pieces saying 'Biden is well ahead in national polling BUT it's much closer in the vital swing states!'. Except, no it isn't particularly. Even if all the other dominos fall into place for him, Trump needs Pennsylvania because he certainly isn't winning WI or MI this time. And Biden is also leading in Penn, outside the margin of error. Meanwhile he's neck and neck in Florida, behind in Georgia and even having a scare in Texas.

Trump is scared because Trump can see his path to victory is closing to the point of being non-existent. Yes, there could be some last second shock event that still swings it his way, but right now he's lined up to lose badly, and that's not a nice feeling for anyone, let alone someone with his narcissistic personality.

The raw polling is not that close in swing states, but the amount of absentee ballot disqualifying that the right-wing is going to pull off in those states is going to be epic and it will move the vote 1-3 ppt in Trump's favor.
 
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Kentonio

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The raw polling is not that close in swing states, but the amount of absentee ballot disqualifying that the right-wing is going to pull off in those states is going to be epic and it will move the vote 1-3 ppt in Trump's favor.

Realistically though Trump needs the margin of error to be completely in his favour PLUS those 1-3 ppts. Sure it's possible, but we're certainly deep into him needing practically a miracle to pull it off. Well either that or some REALLY dirty tactics when it comes to trying to stop mail votes being counted.
 
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Hans Blaster

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Polls I think are designed more to influence public opinion than to reflect it.

That's literally the opposite reason why they are conducted. The people who pay for polls and conduction *want to know* who is favored, or not. The use of the polls by non-professionals (that would probably be nearly everyone on this site, including me) *can* be less informative than influential because people fail to understand what opinion surveys are and how they work.

Pre-election polls are not votes and don't set the vote, but they can indicate (when done well) how the electorate might vote. The closer to the election date the more likely good polls are to reflect the actual vote. Earlier polls are useful to campaigns to measure how they are doing and where they should and shouldn't put effort.

Exit polls are also not votes, but by sampling voters we can do a social-science-type analysis to understand who voted for each candidate and why. What issues mattered, which socio-economic groups favored each candidate, etc.
 
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dqhall

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Trump is sulky, angrier than usual, and doesn't appear to even be trying to reach out to voters at his latest rallies. Sure he's still going through the motions of his continuous denial of his unpopularity, but it has become clear that the man truly believes that he is behind in the election. Read the man's behavior not his words (obviously, since he lies constantly).

What about you? Do you believe Trump is behind?
Trump is behind in Pennsylvania the 5th most populous state.
Trump is sulky, angrier than usual, and doesn't appear to even be trying to reach out to voters at his latest rallies. Sure he's still going through the motions of his continuous denial of his unpopularity, but it has become clear that the man truly believes that he is behind in the election. Read the man's behavior not his words (obviously, since he lies constantly).

What about you? Do you believe Trump is behind?

Edit: A list of Trump's behavior

1. He is campaigning hard in places like Arizona, which need to be solidly in his column to win. Eg: he is on the defense.
2. Trump stopped running advertising in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa. These are must win states for him, just like AZ. But he gave up there. Oh well!
3. Trump is criticizing the electoral machinery itself. Not to fix it, but to cast doubt on the absentee ballots that are likely to send Biden over the top.
Los Angeles County has 10 million people. It is nearly 49% Hispanic, 26% White, 15% Asian and 9% Black. They vote Democrat.

Montana has 1 million people. LA has ten times the number of votes.
 
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lismore

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Why do you think that?

Past experience.

For example the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum on 18th Sep 2014. There was an ICM Poll on 11 Sep which had 'Yes' 7% ahead which led to a frantic cascade of new promises and measures encouraging people to vote 'no'.

From every election you could probably find similar examples.

In your election polling they seem to throw the kitchen sink at Trump but so far he has been victorious. God Bless :)
 
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wing2000

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He's been behind from the beginning according to the dems.
He's in az to day on his campaign.

...not a good sign when one has to defend a red state 6 days before the election. And guess where he is? Bullhead City (near the Nevada border -- as red as it gets).
 
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CitizenD

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Trump didn’t think he was going to win last time, either.
That's true. He seemed honestly surprised on election night. Melania expressed downright disgust for months. And his kids seemed confused as to what they were going to do until the nepotism king employed them all.
 
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wing2000

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Trump didn’t think he was going to win last time, either.

....but this time, he actually wants to win....now that he has knows he can exploit the US Government for his benefit.
 
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