Weather isn't climate. The predicted effects of global warming involve greater extremes of weather; e.g. warmer oceans mean stronger storms and heavier rainfall, the slowing and increased meandering of the jet stream mean larger temperate areas having longer periods north or south of its flow, which generally means colder or hotter weather respectively. This is what we're now seeing.
In the mid '90s I pessimistically thought we might be approaching the tipping point for runaway climate change, i.e. reducing albedo, increasing radiation absorption, increasing temperatures releasing methane from clathrates round continental shelves and the permafrost of Siberia, and so-on - but even then I didn't expect the effects to be noticeable until around mid-century.
However, I've been surprised by how rapidly the climate is changing and how the effects on the weather are already obvious in many parts of the world. Every update to climate models produces more severe projections, and the observed warming and weather are on the pessimistic end of the predictions of 15-20 years ago.
