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Ken Cuccinelli cites 22 million illegal immigrants, nearly twice previous tally

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by NightHawkeye, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Ana the Ist

    Ana the Ist Aggressively serene!

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    Actually I've never seen any group right or left that didn't admit it's difficult to accurately estimate the number of illegals for that exact reason. They make an effort to avoid detection.
     
  2. Ana the Ist

    Ana the Ist Aggressively serene!

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    Well they give roughly 500k-1 million illegals legal status every year.

    I too wondered why it stays perpetually at 11 million.
     
  3. Ana the Ist

    Ana the Ist Aggressively serene!

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    For anyone interested in the methodology of that "11 million" number....here you go...

    Unauthorized immigrant population trends for states, birth countries and regions

    As you can see....even Pew only has a 90% confidence in their number....which means they wouldn't be surprised by a number roughly 1 million higher than their estimates.

    The funny thing is of course, how highly this relies on census data....which we all know doesn't ask citizenship. As a result, this backwards and somewhat ridiculous guesswork has to be done to get a number. Guesswork about death rates, entry rates, childbirth rates, school attendance, etc.
     
  4. Arcangl86

    Arcangl86 Newbie

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    The American Community Survey, which is the primary source used to calculate this, does ask for citizenship.
     
  5. Ana the Ist

    Ana the Ist Aggressively serene!

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    The ACS...at most....gets a sample of like 3.5 million people a year, and as far as I know, there's no requirement for anyone to answer.

    Random sampling can be useful, but I don't know how useful it would be for this particular issue.
     
  6. JohnAshton

    JohnAshton Well-Known Member

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    So, with all the discussion, the figure may be as high as 12 million, which is unlikely.
     
  7. Tom Farebrother

    Tom Farebrother Optimistic sceptic Supporter

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    This is a riot. Since the first immigrant arrived in the US some of them have been trying to stop all the other people who want to immigrate there.
     
  8. JohnAshton

    JohnAshton Well-Known Member

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    Ensuring the empirical accuracy is the nexus of conclusion, and the report fails.
     
  9. NightHawkeye

    NightHawkeye Work-in-progress Supporter

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    Because the outdated reports which the media constantly recite, and which low-ball the estimate, are accurate?
     
  10. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Nothing said so far here would keep it that low.

    The mid-20s figure, by the way, is based upon the findings of a number of organizations and Yale University and M. I. T., neither of which is accused of having a "far right" orientation. LOL
     
  11. JohnAshton

    JohnAshton Well-Known Member

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    The reports itself says it is uncertain of its values,

    Other numbers are immaterial to the value of the report.
     
  12. JohnAshton

    JohnAshton Well-Known Member

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    Nothing is said here that would lead a reasonable person to think it was that high.

    All that needs to be said is the report debunks itself.
     
  13. Arcangl86

    Arcangl86 Newbie

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    Actually from what I've read the residual method which they use was shown to match up pretty well with reality beck when there was that mass amnesty. The amount of people who applied for it was around the estimated number of undocumented people at the time.
     
  14. BeholdenGlory

    BeholdenGlory Member

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    One method of getting a decent estimate would be to compare population totals over the last several decades and through process of elimination identifing the different groups of people we can account for, we can get a rough estimate of current and past population sizes of illegal aliens from the difference between the total number of people in country and the folks whom we have records and papertrails on.
     
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