Ken Cuccinelli cites 22 million illegal immigrants, nearly twice previous tally

[NightHawkeye]

Ken Cuccinelli cites 22 million illegal immigrants, nearly twice previous tally

President Trump’s top immigration spokesman on Wednesday said that there are potentially 22 million illegal immigrants inside the United States, nearly twice the estimate regularly cited.

Ken Cuccinelli, the acting director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which handles the legal immigration process, said the number comes from a study done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.​

 

[Halbhh]

What a blessing from God it would be to have so many hard working humble and wonderful freedom loving people from other nations immigrating here to help grow our economy over the years, as they clearly have aided, and as throughout the history of our blessed nation. Whatever the number is, clearly things have been going fine for the U.S.

 

[JohnAshton]

Immigration is our life blood. I wished it were that number, but it is probably less than ten million.

 

[BeholdenGlory]

Actually, I think that's a Harvard or Yale study from last year that puts the number between 22 & 30 million illegals.

Also, the 11 million estimate is what they were using 11 years ago. That data is a little out of date.

 

[BeholdenGlory]

Halbhh;

4 myths about how immigrants affect the U.S. economy

First-generation immigrants cost the government more than native-born Americans, according to the report — about $1,600 per person annually. But second generation immigrants are “among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S.,” the report found. They contribute about $1,700 per person per year. All other native-born Americans, including third generation immigrants, contribute $1,300 per year on average.

So yes, eventually it pays off. But until then, it's a net cost. Most LEGAL immigrants are a net burden until their CHILDREN begin to pay off that cost. Why would illegals be less of a burden than legal migrants?

 

[Arcangl86]

That study came out last year and was almost instantly criticized as being inaccurate by people on different sides of the issue. No other projection comes even close to what the MIT-Yale study did, yet that's the study that is being treated as the gold standard by the administration. What If There Were Millions More Illegal Immigrants?

 

[BeholdenGlory]

You say, citing a thinktank thats known to employ dubious methodology in their cherry picked research.

Thing is, it's kinda hard to know who all came in when we have no idea who all came in, or even how many of them have come in.

When 10 million is your margin of error, you're guessing, and that's it.

 

[JohnAshton]

Actually, I think that's a Harvard or Yale study from last year that puts the number between 22 & 30 million illegals. Also, the 11 million estimate is what they were using 11 years ago. That data is a little out of date.

The estimate was before the GR that drove millions back to their home countries. The study was vry, very poor.

 

[NightHawkeye]

For the Record: Yale, MIT study: 22 million, not 11 million, undocumented immigrants in US

According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.

“We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Edward Kaplan, a co-author of the report, told Yale Insights. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”​

Here's the actual study: The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

 

[JohnAshton]

The study is greatly flawed, as all know.

The actual number is under 10 million, which is credit to Trump, really.

 

[NightHawkeye]

The study is greatly flawed, as all know.

The actual number is under 10 million, which is credit to Trump, really.

Because that's the number the last administration used?

Not sure that offers a great deal of credibility.

 

[JohnAshton]

The number is real, and if you are talking about credibility, the Trump administration is in last place.

 

[NightHawkeye]

The number is real, and if you are talking about credibility, the Trump administration is in last place.

Feel free to believe Obama's number ... and ignore actual recent data.

 

[DaisyDay]

For the Record: Yale, MIT study: 22 million, not 11 million, undocumented immigrants in US

According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.

“We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Edward Kaplan, a co-author of the report, told Yale Insights. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”​

Here's the actual study: The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

From the report:

These rates are uncertain, especially in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, which is when—both based on our modeling and the very different survey data approach—the number of undocumented immigrants increases most significantly. Our results, while based on a number of assumptions and uncertainties, could help frame debates about policies whose consequences depend on the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States.​

The actual data only goes up to 2016 - anything beyond is projection, speculation. What assumption are the authors making concerning the effectiveness of Donald's present immigration and ICE policies?

 

[DaisyDay]

Feel free to believe Obama's number ... and ignore actual recent data.

What actual recent data?

 

[NightHawkeye]

From the report:

These rates are uncertain ...​

​

Of course. Everyone's data is uncertain. Exact counts of illegals, people who try desperately not to be counted, are always estimates.

 

[grasping the after wind]

What a blessing from God it would be to have so many hard working humble and wonderful freedom loving people from other nations immigrating here to help grow our economy over the years, as they clearly have aided, and as throughout the history of our blessed nation. Whatever the number is, clearly things have been going fine for the U.S.

It would be a great blessing if only everyone that came here legally was hard working, humble and freedom loving. I would assume that the vast majority of that group that do come here legally are indeed that way. Additionally, they respect the laws of the country so they can be trusted to remain law abiding. I would be skeptical of how much of a benefit they would be to their new country if they did not have respect for those laws right from the start but as they have proven to be trustworthy in the first instance they are called upon to show their trustworthiness, I feel more confident in assuming they will remain trustworthy going forward.

 

[Arcangl86]

You say, citing a thinktank thats known to employ dubious methodology in their cherry picked research.

Thing is, it's kinda hard to know who all came in when we have no idea who all came in, or even how many of them have come in.

When 10 million is your margin of error, you're guessing, and that's it.

If you actually read that article you would see that they cited several articles that refuted the study, including one from the Center for Immigration Studies. The CIS, which is an anti immigration group, even said that the results of the MIT-Yale study were incredibly improbable to be true and that they agreed with the Migration Policy INstitute, which they never agree on anything with.

 

[JohnAshton]

Feel free to believe Obama's number ... and ignore actual recent data.

The actual, proven record data is 11 million, the 22 million number is flawed mightily.

Those who understand empirical data ignore that latter number.

 

[DaisyDay]

​

Of course. Everyone's data is uncertain. Exact counts of illegals, people who try desperately not to be counted, are always estimates.

That's not true that "everyone's data [are] uncertain". The authors, however, are explicitly stating that their data are uncertain.