Ken Cuccinelli cites 22 million illegal immigrants, nearly twice previous tally

Ana the Ist

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That's not true that "everyone's data [are] uncertain". The authors, however, are explicitly stating that their data are uncertain.

Actually I've never seen any group right or left that didn't admit it's difficult to accurately estimate the number of illegals for that exact reason. They make an effort to avoid detection.
 
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Ana the Ist

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The actual count is a little higher than Cuccinelli's 22 million. Credit him with not inflating anything. But there shouldn't be any doubt about it not being the proverbial 11 million that is always cited and has been cited for as long as I can remember.

Obviously, when over 1 million have crossed the border in only the last 9 months, the total is not going to be 11 mill forever!

Well they give roughly 500k-1 million illegals legal status every year.

I too wondered why it stays perpetually at 11 million.
 
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Ana the Ist

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For anyone interested in the methodology of that "11 million" number....here you go...

Unauthorized immigrant population trends for states, birth countries and regions

As you can see....even Pew only has a 90% confidence in their number....which means they wouldn't be surprised by a number roughly 1 million higher than their estimates.

The funny thing is of course, how highly this relies on census data....which we all know doesn't ask citizenship. As a result, this backwards and somewhat ridiculous guesswork has to be done to get a number. Guesswork about death rates, entry rates, childbirth rates, school attendance, etc.
 
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Arcangl86

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For anyone interested in the methodology of that "11 million" number....here you go...

Unauthorized immigrant population trends for states, birth countries and regions

As you can see....even Pew only has a 90% confidence in their number....which means they wouldn't be surprised by a number roughly 1 million higher than their estimates.

The funny thing is of course, how highly this relies on census data....which we all know doesn't ask citizenship. As a result, this backwards and somewhat ridiculous guesswork has to be done to get a number. Guesswork about death rates, entry rates, childbirth rates, school attendance, etc.
The American Community Survey, which is the primary source used to calculate this, does ask for citizenship.
 
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Ana the Ist

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The American Community Survey, which is the primary source used to calculate this, does ask for citizenship.

The ACS...at most....gets a sample of like 3.5 million people a year, and as far as I know, there's no requirement for anyone to answer.

Random sampling can be useful, but I don't know how useful it would be for this particular issue.
 
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Tom 1

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Ken Cuccinelli cites 22 million illegal immigrants, nearly twice previous tally

President Trump’s top immigration spokesman on Wednesday said that there are potentially 22 million illegal immigrants inside the United States, nearly twice the estimate regularly cited.

Ken Cuccinelli, the acting director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which handles the legal immigration process, said the number comes from a study done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
.​

This is a riot. Since the first immigrant arrived in the US some of them have been trying to stop all the other people who want to immigrate there.
 
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Albion

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So, with all the discussion, the figure may be as high as 12 million, which is unlikely.
Nothing said so far here would keep it that low.

The mid-20s figure, by the way, is based upon the findings of a number of organizations and Yale University and M. I. T., neither of which is accused of having a "far right" orientation. LOL
 
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JohnAshton

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Nothing said so far here would keep it that low.

The mid-20s figure, by the way, is based upon the findings of a number of organizations and Yale University and M. I. T., neither of which is known to have a "far right" orientation. LOL
Nothing is said here that would lead a reasonable person to think it was that high.

All that needs to be said is the report debunks itself.
 
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Arcangl86

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Because the outdated reports which the media constantly recite, and which low-ball the estimate, are accurate?
Actually from what I've read the residual method which they use was shown to match up pretty well with reality beck when there was that mass amnesty. The amount of people who applied for it was around the estimated number of undocumented people at the time.
 
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BeholdenGlory

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One method of getting a decent estimate would be to compare population totals over the last several decades and through process of elimination identifing the different groups of people we can account for, we can get a rough estimate of current and past population sizes of illegal aliens from the difference between the total number of people in country and the folks whom we have records and papertrails on.
 
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