Donald Trump Holds Big Lead Over Joe Biden in Swing States, Polls Show

[essentialsaltes]

Looks disproportionate already.
Which counties?
Gotta link?

Oh, is my face red. That was the poll in your OP. How did you determine it was fresh and not disproportionate? Especially now that it looks disproportionate to you once you've investigated it more.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Considering you already rejected the scientific poll because you never heard of them, I struggle to find any common denominator on which polls you accept, apart from the polls delivering the replies you are hoping for.

Is it the polls that show Trump leading, perhaps?

 

[HARK!]

Oh, is my face red. That was the poll in your OP. How did you determine it was fresh and not disproportionate? Especially now that it looks disproportionate to you once you've investigated it more.

I said nothing of freshness, whatever that is supposed to mean. You came up with that all on your own. Do you know what proportionate means. If so, you might try applying that word to the numbers that you presented, that I responded to.

However with the information that you excluded from your post, those numbers begin to make sense.

 

[HARK!]

How did you limit the responses to American members?

I don't understand the question.

 

[Gene2memE]

View attachment 333620

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HHP_July2023_KeyResults.pdf

That's interesting. And, if true, probably not great for Republicans.

CPI inflation has been trending down for 12 months. It's gone from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.0% in June 2023. Expectations are that it will continue to come down (although more slowly), reaching the targeted 2% (+/- 1%) level around the middle to end of 2024.

Core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) is still somewhat higher. It was 4.8% in June. The expectation is that core inflation will continue to come down to about 3.0-3.5% by the end of the year and to about 2.5% by mid 2024.

The Republican strategy of banging on the inflation drum during the mid-terms may get turned around on them during the presidential elections.

It's hard to say though, as actively selling low inflation as a political talking point is really difficult. It's not easy to bring up organically (waaay to stats based) and will probably get rolled into a 'sound economic management' talking point.

The only place (politically speaking) where it's really worthwhile is as a defensive measure/counter narrative. If inflation gets brought up frequently during the presidential election period, I can see Democrat strategists hammering the 'Inflation Reduction Act' and similar achievements as a 'victory' for them.

 

[Gene2memE]

Were you unaware of the Trump Recession? That followed the Great Recession from Bush, which was after the previous Bush Recession, which followed his Dad's recession. Are we sensing a pattern here?

It wasn't a Trump Recession. It was a COVID recession.

I'm not a fan of Trump, but the Republican administration did a workman-like job in pandemic period economic management. There's lots to criticize at the margins (particularly relating to knock on effects from public health management, and the CARES act), but overall it was about a solid B-.

Blaming Trump for the 2020 recession makes very little sense. It was an exogenous global crisis. You may as well blame a roller-coaster for going down the hill.

 

[Belk]

I don't understand the question.

If you did not limit those who answer the question in your poll then you are measuring the responses of everyone on this forum, which includes those who are not US citizens. You then go on to say this proves this forum is not the same spread as across the US. If you did not limit the question why would it be the same as the US when you are measuring non US responses?

 

[HARK!]

If you did not limit those who answer the question in your poll then you are measuring the responses of everyone on this forum, which includes those who are not US citizens. You then go on to say this proves this forum is not the same spread as across the US. If you did not limit the question why would it be the same as the US when you are measuring non US responses?

U.S. election laws limit who can vote in U.S. elections. If a foreign citizen illegally votes in U.S. elections; I have no control over that. If a foreign citizen lies, and says that he will vote in U.S. elections; and then he doesn't; I have no control over that either.

However, how each member voted in my poll is displayed publicly; so with a little digging, at least other members can see who claims not to reside in the U.S..

 

[Belk]

U.S. election laws limit who can vote in U.S. elections. If a foreign citizen illegally votes in U.S. elections; I have no control over that. If a foreign citizen lies, and says that he will vote in U.S. elections; and then he doesn't; I have no control over that either.

OK, but not really relevant.

However, how each member voted in my poll is displayed publicly; so with a little digging, at least other members can see who claims not to reside in the U.S..

That is my point. You are saying your poll shows that this forum does not line up with the US. Since the forum is not limited to those in the US how is this significant?

 

[HARK!]

You are saying your poll shows that this forum does not line up with the US.

That's not really what I said; is it?

 

[HARK!]

OK, but not really relevant.

Completely relevant.

 

[Belk]

That's not really what I said; is it?

It certainly looked that way to me but feel free to elaborate.

What this shows us (and I did this intentionally) is that the political views of the members of this sub-forum are disproportionate with Americans in general.

I thank all who participated in this test, which demonstrates the evidence to support my hypothesis.

I was hoping to get more votes before I let the cat out of the bag; but I would call this test a success.

View attachment 333779

 

[Belk]

Completely relevant.

How is this relevant to my point that the board has non US members?

 

[HARK!]

How is this relevant to my point that the board has non US members?

Can you show me the relevance of your point in relationship to who voted in my poll?

No names please.

 

[HARK!]

It certainly looked that way to me but feel free to elaborate.

Republicans and Democrats are about a 50/50 split in the U.S. Clearly my poll does not reflect that ratio.

 

[Belk]

Can you show me the relevance of your point in relationship to who voted in my poll?

No names please.

How will that demonstrate the relevance of your response?

 

[HARK!]

How will that demonstrate the relevance of your response?

I don't have a crystal ball.

 

[Belk]

Republicans and Democrats are about a 50/50 split in the U.S. Clearly my poll does not reflect that ratio.

OK, but not really relevant.


That is my point. You are saying your poll shows that this forum does not line up with the US. Since the forum is not limited to those in the US how is this significant?

That's not really what I said; is it?

Again, it sure looks like I'm paraphrasing your statement. Not sure where the difference is.

 

[Belk]

I don't have a crystal ball.

You are apparently also unable to answer my queries. Good night Hark!

 

[HARK!]

Again, it sure looks like I'm paraphrasing your statement. Not sure where the difference is.

Maybe next time you'll just quote me.