Introduction
Bostock v. Clayton County is chock-full of terrible reasoning up and down the opinion, but I want to venture an argument that accepts all of Gorsuch's flawed premises and still opposes his conclusion. That is, I want to offer an argument for the invalidity of his reasoning. (This thread is meant for those who are already familiar with the case. If you aren't I will probably lose you along the way.)
The Court determined in a 6-3 decision that discriminating against an individual on the basis of their homosexuality or transgenderism is discriminating against that individual on the basis of their sex, and therefore such discrimination is prohibited under Title VII of the Civil Rights Acts of 1964. To quote Gorsuch, who authored the majority opinion, "...it is impossible to discriminate against a person for being homosexual or transgender without discriminating against that individual based on sex" (9).
But-For Causation
At the heart of Gorsuch's reasoning is what he calls, "but-for causation." As I understand it, a but-for cause is a necessary condition of the effect. So if an employer says, "I would have hired you but-for the fact that you are a woman," then but-for causation on the basis of sex has occurred, and this means that discrimination is present in the hiring process. If the necessary condition of female-sex-applicant were not present, the effect of not-hiring would not have obtained. Further, although identifying but-for causes can be difficult Gorsuch assures us that it is do-able if we only change one variable at a time. "In other words, a but-for test directs us to change one thing at a time and see if the outcome changes. If it does, we have found a but-for cause" (5). Gorsuch clearly thinks that but-for reasoning supports his conclusion, "An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex" (2).
Competing But-For Analyses
But does but-for reasoning support his conclusion? I don't think so. I think Gorsuch is changing two variables, not one. First consider a (biologically male) transwoman who is fired because of her transgenderism. Is sex a but-for cause in this case? Consider two possibilities, Gorsuch's analysis and a competing analysis:
Which is the right analysis? Which analysis changed only one variable? Consider the parallel homosexual case:
First note that there is no possible way to change only one variable. When the variable of sex is changed, other variables related to sex change, and at that point what is at stake is different theories of how the sex-variable relates to those other variables. Clearly the question here is whether we should hold the sex-identification variable constant or whether we should hold the transgender-identification variable constant, because when you change the variable of sex you can't hold both of these other variables constant. In the homosexual case the question is whether we should hold the sex-attraction variable constant or whether we should hold the sexual orientation variable constant, because when you change the variable of sex you can't hold both of those other variables constant.
Conclusion
Well, which of the two variables has precedence? Presumably the plaintiffs favor A1 & B1 while the defendants favor A2 & B2. I would argue that A2 & B2 offer the proper analysis, not A1 & B1. This is because the intent of the defendants is focused on sexual orientation and transgenderism, not on sexual attraction and gender identification. For example, they are interested in firing people because they are homosexual, not because they are attracted to men. Thus in our but-for analysis we should hold the homosexual variable constant, not the attracted-to-men variable. Intent of the acting party guides us in accepting one of the variables among the mutually exclusive pair of variables. A1 & B1 assume that the defendants were more interested in mere gender identification and mere sexual attraction rather than transgenderism and homosexuality, which is absurd. Gorsuch not only fails to limit himself to changing one variable at a time, but the second variable that he changes is the precise thing the defendant claimed was the initial problem! Even on Gorsuch's own reasoning, sex is not a but-for cause of discrimination.
As an addendum, even if A2 & B2 are not thought to have clear precedence, if A1 & B1 cannot be shown to have precedence then the analysis is indeterminate and we cannot claim with any certainty that sex is a but-for cause in this case. What we have here are competing theories of how sex relates to sexual orientation and gender identification, and the courts are simply not competent to enshrine particular gender theories into law.
TL;DR
Bostock v. Clayton County is chock-full of terrible reasoning up and down the opinion, but I want to venture an argument that accepts all of Gorsuch's flawed premises and still opposes his conclusion. That is, I want to offer an argument for the invalidity of his reasoning. (This thread is meant for those who are already familiar with the case. If you aren't I will probably lose you along the way.)
The Court determined in a 6-3 decision that discriminating against an individual on the basis of their homosexuality or transgenderism is discriminating against that individual on the basis of their sex, and therefore such discrimination is prohibited under Title VII of the Civil Rights Acts of 1964. To quote Gorsuch, who authored the majority opinion, "...it is impossible to discriminate against a person for being homosexual or transgender without discriminating against that individual based on sex" (9).
But-For Causation
At the heart of Gorsuch's reasoning is what he calls, "but-for causation." As I understand it, a but-for cause is a necessary condition of the effect. So if an employer says, "I would have hired you but-for the fact that you are a woman," then but-for causation on the basis of sex has occurred, and this means that discrimination is present in the hiring process. If the necessary condition of female-sex-applicant were not present, the effect of not-hiring would not have obtained. Further, although identifying but-for causes can be difficult Gorsuch assures us that it is do-able if we only change one variable at a time. "In other words, a but-for test directs us to change one thing at a time and see if the outcome changes. If it does, we have found a but-for cause" (5). Gorsuch clearly thinks that but-for reasoning supports his conclusion, "An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex" (2).
Competing But-For Analyses
But does but-for reasoning support his conclusion? I don't think so. I think Gorsuch is changing two variables, not one. First consider a (biologically male) transwoman who is fired because of her transgenderism. Is sex a but-for cause in this case? Consider two possibilities, Gorsuch's analysis and a competing analysis:
A1. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a biological male who calls themselves a woman to a biological female who calls herself a woman. Since the change results in a different employment outcome sex is a but-for cause.
A2. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a transgendered male to a transgendered female. Since the change does not result in a different employment outcome sex is not a but-for cause.
A2. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a transgendered male to a transgendered female. Since the change does not result in a different employment outcome sex is not a but-for cause.
Which is the right analysis? Which analysis changed only one variable? Consider the parallel homosexual case:
B1. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a male who is attracted to men to a female who is attracted to men. Since the change results in a different employment outcome sex is a but-for cause.
B2. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a male who is homosexual to a female who is homosexual. Since the change does not result in a different employment outcome sex is not a but-for cause.
B2. By changing the one variable of sex we move from a male who is homosexual to a female who is homosexual. Since the change does not result in a different employment outcome sex is not a but-for cause.
First note that there is no possible way to change only one variable. When the variable of sex is changed, other variables related to sex change, and at that point what is at stake is different theories of how the sex-variable relates to those other variables. Clearly the question here is whether we should hold the sex-identification variable constant or whether we should hold the transgender-identification variable constant, because when you change the variable of sex you can't hold both of these other variables constant. In the homosexual case the question is whether we should hold the sex-attraction variable constant or whether we should hold the sexual orientation variable constant, because when you change the variable of sex you can't hold both of those other variables constant.
Conclusion
Well, which of the two variables has precedence? Presumably the plaintiffs favor A1 & B1 while the defendants favor A2 & B2. I would argue that A2 & B2 offer the proper analysis, not A1 & B1. This is because the intent of the defendants is focused on sexual orientation and transgenderism, not on sexual attraction and gender identification. For example, they are interested in firing people because they are homosexual, not because they are attracted to men. Thus in our but-for analysis we should hold the homosexual variable constant, not the attracted-to-men variable. Intent of the acting party guides us in accepting one of the variables among the mutually exclusive pair of variables. A1 & B1 assume that the defendants were more interested in mere gender identification and mere sexual attraction rather than transgenderism and homosexuality, which is absurd. Gorsuch not only fails to limit himself to changing one variable at a time, but the second variable that he changes is the precise thing the defendant claimed was the initial problem! Even on Gorsuch's own reasoning, sex is not a but-for cause of discrimination.
As an addendum, even if A2 & B2 are not thought to have clear precedence, if A1 & B1 cannot be shown to have precedence then the analysis is indeterminate and we cannot claim with any certainty that sex is a but-for cause in this case. What we have here are competing theories of how sex relates to sexual orientation and gender identification, and the courts are simply not competent to enshrine particular gender theories into law.
TL;DR
Gorsuch: You know you can't fire people based on their sex according to Title VII.
Defendant: We didn't fire him because he's a man, we fired him because he's homosexual.
Gorsuch: If he were a heterosexual woman you clearly wouldn't have fired him, so it's obvious to me that you fired him because he's a man.
Defendant: ..Are you being serious..?
Gorsuch: You know you can't fire people based on their sex according to Title VII.
Defendant: We didn't fire her because she's a female, we fired her because she thinks she's a man.
Gorsuch: If she were a cisgender male you clearly wouldn't have fired her, so it's obvious to me that you fired her because she's a woman.
Defendant: I don't have any problem with her sex, I have a problem with her gender. She's the one who has a problem with her sex.
Defendant: We didn't fire him because he's a man, we fired him because he's homosexual.
Gorsuch: If he were a heterosexual woman you clearly wouldn't have fired him, so it's obvious to me that you fired him because he's a man.
Defendant: ..Are you being serious..?
Gorsuch: You know you can't fire people based on their sex according to Title VII.
Defendant: We didn't fire her because she's a female, we fired her because she thinks she's a man.
Gorsuch: If she were a cisgender male you clearly wouldn't have fired her, so it's obvious to me that you fired her because she's a woman.
Defendant: I don't have any problem with her sex, I have a problem with her gender. She's the one who has a problem with her sex.
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