12 Covid infected. All 12 vaccinated, and most had boosters.

[KCfromNC]

Beg your pardon? What claim have I made about natural immunity?

The one in post 15 :

And to be fair, we're not really talking about "vaxed" vs "unvaxed" here, but rather vaccine vs natural immunity efficacies.​

Like you said, there's no numbers in this thread to support any claims about that given the lack of data about reinfections.

 

[Rachel20]

I'm pretty sure that no actual state has anywhere close to the population needed for the math here to make a single bit of sense.

Math lies? lol OK You do realize we're only comparing the rates, nothing more.

 

[FireDragon76]

The virus changes but the vaccine to prevent it does not, so it becomes less effective, and more irrelevant over time.

You may delude yourself, but you have no right to mislead others. The vaccine has saved lives.

 

[KCfromNC]

Math lies? lol OK

No, the math is just the math. It just happens to a terrible model for what's actually happening here in reality.

See post #3 for an example of math which is a much much better fit to the reality of the situation.

 

[Rachel20]

The one in post 15 :

And to be fair, we're not really talking about "vaxed" vs "unvaxed" here, but rather vaccine vs natural immunity efficacies.​

Like you said, there's no numbers in this thread to support any claims about that given the lack of data about reinfections.

That's why it's called an "assumption". And a reasonable one at that.

 

[KCfromNC]

This is the STRANGEST take on this data I could possibly imagine.

I don't know, if I have a penny in my pocket and find another one on the ground, it seems perfectly reasonable to assume my net worth will double every day indefinitely, right?

 

[Rachel20]

See post #3 for an example of math which is a much much better fit to the reality of the situation.

Post #3 is where I obtained the numbers. I knew you weren't paying attention.

 

[KCfromNC]

That's why it's called an "assumption". And a reasonable one at that.

I guess readers can decide for themselves if an assumption which predicts over 1 million deaths a month in a single state among vaccinated people is reasonable or not.

 

[KCfromNC]

Post #3 is where I obtained the numbers. I knew you weren't paying attention.

Speaking of paying attention, readers will notice the post quoted has nothing to do with the raw data but instead pointed out a much more informed analysis of that data.

 

[Rachel20]

I guess readers can decide for themselves if an assumption which predicts over 1 million deaths a month in a single state among vaccinated people is reasonable or not.

lol see my post #14. It "predicts" no such thing. That number of deaths wouldn't be reached until 2024 and it would be for a 7-mo period and then, only *IF* the rates held, which I have made no claims about.

Please don't put words in my mouth or make erroneous conclusions about what my calculations show. I have not done this to you.

 

[KCfromNC]

lol see my post #14. It "predicts" no such thing. That number of deaths wouldn't be reached until 2024 and it would be for a 7-mo period and then, only *IF* the rates held, which I have made no claims about.

That's not true :

That's why it's called an "assumption". And a reasonable one at that.

Here you insist that the assumption is reasonable.

 

[Rachel20]

Here you insist that the assumption is reasonable.

The assumption we are talking about here is that the "vaxed" group in post #3 would most likely include some that were infected at some point in 2020 (or early 2021) before the vaccines were available. And yes, I do think that's a reasonable assumption !

 

[KCfromNC]

The assumption we are talking about here is that the "vaxed" group in post #3 would most likely include some that were infected at some point in 2020 (or early 2021) before the vaccines were available. And yes, I do think that's a reasonable assumption !

Hard to keep all of the assumptions straight, I guess. Does this mean we can ignore post 14 from here on out, since you don't seem to think it is based on valid assumptions anymore?

And can you explain the relevance of what happened prior to May 2021 to calculating the rate of change in the numbers from May to December 2021? Seems like a distraction from the math in post #3 showing how badly things were going for the unvaccinated.

 

[Rachel20]

Hard to keep all of the assumptions straight, I guess. Does this mean we can ignore post 14 from here on out, since you don't seem to think it is based on valid assumptions anymore?

Post #14 is just showing what the numbers in post #3 indicate, in terms of rates. Nothing more.

And can you explain the relevance of what happened prior to May to calculating the rate of change in the data from May to December?

So Post #3 looks only at "vaxed" vs "unvaxed". Neither of these categories tell us anything about prior infections (symptomatic or not) in those groups. This is important because any prior infection would indicate some innate immunity priming had occurred (in both groups) before 5/1 (a reasonable assumption because the virus was around more than 1 year before vaccines were available). This means that the vaccine may not be the only thing at play in the "vaxed" numbers! Those with immunity priming have 2 benefits: vax-induced Abs and natural immunity Abs. So if the "vaxed" numbers are better (at the moment), which group of Abs do we attribute that to? Or in what ratio? Since we can't answer this question, we can't interpret the better numbers for the "vaxed" group as being strictly due to the vaccines. For that, you would need a cohort of vaccinees with no prior infection.

 

[Aldebaran]

You may delude yourself, but you have no right to mislead others. The vaccine has saved lives.

Now you're making an unsubstantiated claim. The data proves otherwise.

 

[FireDragon76]

Now you're making an unsubstantiated claim. The data proves otherwise.

It's not unsubstantiated except to the uninformed.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

MILWAUKEE —
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak after a wedding that took place on Nov. 27 in Milwaukee County.

The state says 12 wedding attendees from California have since tested positive for COVID-19.
.....
Wisconsin DHS said all 12 people were vaccinated and most had received boosters.

This is an excellent example of cherry-picking. It should be used as the descriptive example of cherry-picking in the Wikipedia article on the meaning of the term.

The reason this example is so spot on is that it cites an extremely small sample - people in the wedding party who came from California to Wisconsin. It is likely that people in the party from California hung out together during the visit and spread covid within their subgroup, rather than catch it from others at the wedding. So how many unvaccinated people were there in that California group? It is possible they were all vaccinated? If so, it would be impossible for anyone testing positive to be unvaccinated. This statistic says more about the high rates of vaccination in this subgroup than it does about the relative benefits of being vaccinated. As it says in the fine print on ads, "your results may vary."

 

[Tanj]

Yes, and worse, if Geert Vanden Bossche is right about vaccinal Abs outcompeting innate Abs for binding to the virus because of higher affinity for it, weakening innate immunity in vaccinees.

What?? How the heck does the adaptive immune system weaken innate immunity? Connect the dots on that one for me. Is it the antigen presenting cells get expliramused by this magic effect, the invariant gamma-delta Tcells, NKs?

 

[RestoreTheJoy]

As more places require vaccination status before entering a public place, or attending events, it's starting to look more and more irrelevant whether or not someone had gotten injected with....whatever it is they're labeling as Covid vaccines.

MILWAUKEE —
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak after a wedding that took place on Nov. 27 in Milwaukee County.

The state says 12 wedding attendees from California have since tested positive for COVID-19.

One of the 12 attended the wedding after returning from traveling overseas.

Five of the 12 have tested positive for the omicron variant.

Genetic sequencing data is not yet available for the other seven cases.

Wisconsin DHS said all 12 people were vaccinated and most had received boosters.

Their ages range from 18-49.
DHS investigates COVID-19 outbreak after Milwaukee County wedding

Today:

The fully vaccinated man who attended an anime convention in Manhattan from Nov. 19 to Nov. 21 told New York health officials that of 30 friends with whom he attended the event, 15 tested positive for coronavirus, the New York Times reported Saturday. It’s unclear if the cohort who tested positive contracted the Omicron variant of the virus, according to the paper.

The Hennepin County resident, who experienced mild COVID-19 symptoms, had received a booster dose weeks before the three-day Javits Center convention, the paper reported.

(One had to be vaccinated and wear a mask to attend.)

Friends of Minnesota man with Omicron also test positive

 

[High Fidelity]

They don't stop infection, but they considerably reduce the risk of serious illness or hospitalisation.

Locally around 70% of hospitalised under-50s with Covid are unvaccinated, for example.