12 Covid infected. All 12 vaccinated, and most had boosters.

[Aldebaran]

As more places require vaccination status before entering a public place, or attending events, it's starting to look more and more irrelevant whether or not someone had gotten injected with....whatever it is they're labeling as Covid vaccines.

MILWAUKEE —
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak after a wedding that took place on Nov. 27 in Milwaukee County.

The state says 12 wedding attendees from California have since tested positive for COVID-19.

One of the 12 attended the wedding after returning from traveling overseas.

Five of the 12 have tested positive for the omicron variant.

Genetic sequencing data is not yet available for the other seven cases.

Wisconsin DHS said all 12 people were vaccinated and most had received boosters.

Their ages range from 18-49.
DHS investigates COVID-19 outbreak after Milwaukee County wedding

 

[Guojing]

This picture is good illustration of what you should be thinking about

For example, say at the moment, 85 per cent of the local population have completed the full vaccination regimen. That means that for every 100 people, about 85 are vaccinated and 15 are not.

For illustrative purposes, imagine the four people in red experience bad outcomes: Two vaccinated and two unvaccinated.

So, if we only think about the absolute numbers in the top part of figure, we could fairly wonder if vaccination is such a great idea.

But from the entire picture, we see the true story: Vaccinated people with bad outcomes come from a big pool of people while unvaccinated people with bad outcomes from a small pool.

With the full picture, it becomes clear that vaccinated people are at much lower risk than unvaccinated people.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

View attachment 309117

With the full picture, it becomes clear that vaccinated people are at much lower risk than unvaccinated people.

Correct, nobody ever said these things may someone bullet proof. In fact, early on, the original goal was just something that reduced deaths and hospitalizations, any level of transmission prevention over 40% was considered "a bonus".

I think people lost sight of what the original goals were when the vaccines "outkicked their coverage" against the original strain and alpha variant...then when reality set it, some people panicked.

The vaccines were never presented as "this will make sure you never have the sniffles or low grade fever ever again", they were presented as "this will will drastically reduce your chances of landing the in the hospitals or in a grave", and they have lived up to that.

In my home state, we're a great case study, we're still at a roughly 50/50 split in terms of vaccination. Vaccination basically stagnated in May, so we have 6-7 months worth of time where our population was basically a half and half split between vaxxed and unvaxxed.

To put the numbers in context (we obviously have to omit January-April, since a lot of people couldn't even get vaccinated in those months, so it'd be inaccurate to include those months in the calculation)

Stats as of 5/1 (when vaccination level hit 50%)

Stats as of 12/1 (with 58% vaccinated, still not far off from an even split)

So, from 5/1 until present day:
Increase in covid hospitalizations among unvaccinated half: 17,564
Increase in covid hospitalizations among vaccinated half: 1,637

Increase in covid death among unvaccinated half: 5,059
Increase in covid death among vaccinated half: 507

The numbers speak for themselves. You're 10-11x more likely to be hospitalized or die from covid if you're unvaccinated.

 

[Rachel20]

The numbers speak for themselves.

Very troubling for the vaccinated group since their rates of increase are far greater. For example, 7313 unvaccinated deaths move to 12372. Not even a doubling. But among the vaccinated group over same time perioed, it increased at a far greater rate - from 87 to 594 (more than 6x)

 

[Aldebaran]

Very troubling for the vaccinated group since their rates of increase are far greater. For example, 7313 unvaccinated deaths move to 12372. Not even a doubling. But among the vaccinated group over same time perioed, it increased at a far greater rate - from 87 to 594 (more than 6x)

The virus changes but the vaccine to prevent it does not, so it becomes less effective, and more irrelevant over time.

 

[Rachel20]

The virus changes but the vaccine to prevent it does not, so it becomes less effective, and more irrelevant over time.

Yes, and worse, if Geert Vanden Bossche is right about vaccinal Abs outcompeting innate Abs for binding to the virus because of higher affinity for it, weakening innate immunity in vaccinees.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Very troubling for the vaccinated group since their rates of increase are far greater. For example, 7313 unvaccinated deaths move to 12372. Not even a doubling. But among the vaccinated group over same time perioed, it increased at a far greater rate - from 87 to 594 (more than 6x)

So you understand why that's a statistically invalid way to look at that data, yes?

What the numbers already were at the starting point are irrelevant for this data exercise. May 1st is selected because that's when we established a 50/50 split between the two groups.

I'll present it a different way to clear up the confusion. As of May 1st in Ohio, we had 5.5 million people who were unvaccinated (Group A), and 5.5 million who were vaccinated (Group B).

In the 6 months following that starting point....

5,000 people from Group A died from it
Only 500 people from Group B died from it

If both groups' numbers continue to climb at that rate (5,000 per 5.5 million and 500 per 5.5 million, respectively. The vaccinated group will never have as many deaths as the unvaccinated group.

 

[Rachel20]

So you understand why that's a statistically invalid way to look at that data, yes?

What the numbers already were at the starting point are irrelevant for this data exercise. May 1st is selected because that's when we established a 50/50 split between the two groups.

I'll present it a different way to clear up the confusion. As of May 1st in Ohio, we had 5.5 million people who were unvaccinated (Group A), and 5.5 million who were vaccinated (Group B).

In the 6 months following that starting point....

5,000 people from Group A died from it
Only 500 people from Group B died from it

If both groups' numbers continue to climb at that rate (5,000 per 5.5 million and 500 per 5.5 million, respectively. The vaccinated group will never have as many deaths as the unvaccinated group.

You were using the starting numbers yourself to show the increase. I just looked at the same data in terms of rate of increase, which I don't think is "statistically invalid". If you plot those lines on a graph, it's obvious the vaccinated deaths will overtake the unvaccinated at some point. But which of us is correct won't be apparent in a single snapshot, we need more time for the real picture to emerge.

 

[mala]

You were using the starting numbers yourself to show the increase. I just looked at the same data in terms of rate of increase, which I don't think is "statistically invalid". If you plot those lines on a graph, it's obvious the vaccinated deaths will overtake the unvaccinated at some point. But which of us is correct won't be apparent in a single snapshot, we need more time for the real picture to emerge.

there is an ever growing concern that basic math skills are just not being taught these days.

 

[Rachel20]

there is an ever growing concern that basic math skills are just not being taught these days.

yes, among those that think 2 + 2 is 5

 

[KCfromNC]

there is an ever growing concern that basic math skills are just not being taught these days.

It's weird that getting vaccinated seems to fix that problem ... or maybe I'm getting cause and effect backwards.

 

[dqhall]

As more places require vaccination status before entering a public place, or attending events, it's starting to look more and more irrelevant whether or not someone had gotten injected with....whatever it is they're labeling as Covid vaccines.

MILWAUKEE —
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is investigating a COVID-19 outbreak after a wedding that took place on Nov. 27 in Milwaukee County.

The state says 12 wedding attendees from California have since tested positive for COVID-19.

One of the 12 attended the wedding after returning from traveling overseas.

Five of the 12 have tested positive for the omicron variant.

Genetic sequencing data is not yet available for the other seven cases.

Wisconsin DHS said all 12 people were vaccinated and most had received boosters.

Their ages range from 18-49.
DHS investigates COVID-19 outbreak after Milwaukee County wedding

Most of the people who died of COVID were not vaccinated. Even the best vaccines are only 95% effective after full vaccination of two shots. Lesser vaccines are much less effective. Both types reduce incidence of severe disease. The vaccines may wear off in six months. So far the omicron virus is described as mild.

 

[rambot]

Very troubling for the vaccinated group since their rates of increase are far greater. For example, 7313 unvaccinated deaths move to 12372. Not even a doubling. But among the vaccinated group over same time perioed, it increased at a far greater rate - from 87 to 594 (more than 6x)

This is the STRANGEST take on this data I could possibly imagine.

 

[Rachel20]

This is the STRANGEST take on this data I could possibly imagine.

Why? The poster said "the numbers speak for themselves". So I looked at those numbers. Anyone's free to check my math:

Rate of increase for unvaxed in 7-mo period 5/1/21 - 12/1/21:
7313x = 12373
x = 12372/7313 = ~1.7

Rate of increase for vaxed in 7-mo period 5/1/21 - 12/1/21:
87x = 594
x = 594/87 = ~6.8

Assuming those rates hold constant over same time intervals going forward, you can see the vaxed deaths overtake the unvaxed between 9/1/23 and 4/1/24.

5/1/21 12/1/21 7/1/22 2/1/23 9/1/23 4/1/24 11/1/24

7313 12372 21032 35754 60781 103327 175655 (1.7x)
87 594 4039 27465 186762 1269981 8635870 (6.8x)

 

[Rachel20]

And to be fair, we're not really talking about "vaxed" vs "unvaxed" here, but rather vaccine vs natural immunity efficacies. And the "vaxed" group will include those with some innate immunity priming during the prior year when there were no vaccines.

 

[KCfromNC]

And to be fair, we're not really talking about "vaxed" vs "unvaxed" here, but rather vaccine vs natural immunity efficacies.

I didn't see anything in the data about the number of people reinfected after having covid.

 

[Rachel20]

I didn't see anything in the data about the number of people reinfected after having covid.

Right, I'm not sure the poster even has access to that kind of breakdown with these numbers.

 

[KCfromNC]

Right, I'm not sure the poster even has access to that kind of breakdown with these numbers.

The poster wasn't making the unsupported claim about natural immunity, you were.

 

[KCfromNC]

Assuming those rates hold constant over same time intervals going forward, you can see the vaxed deaths overtake the unvaxed between 9/1/23 and 4/1/24.

5/1/21 12/1/21 7/1/22 2/1/23 9/1/23 4/1/24 11/1/24

7313 12372 21032 35754 60781 103327 175655 (1.7x)
87 594 4039 27465 186762 1269981 8635870 (6.8x)

The assumption requires 1 million covid deaths per month among vaccinated people sustained for more than half a year in a single US state. I'm pretty sure that no actual state has anywhere close to the population needed for the math here to make a single bit of sense.

 

[Rachel20]

The poster wasn't making the unsupported claim about natural immunity, you were.

Beg your pardon? What claim have I made about natural immunity? That the "vaxed" group as of 5/1/21 would include some who were infected prior to vaccine availability since the virus was around for all of 2020? You don't think that's a reasonable assumption?