WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS

[Vylo]

Wuhan COVID-19 death toll may be in tens of thousands, data on cremations and shipments of urns suggest

Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.

By subtracting the expected deaths of roughly 16,000 in Wuhan, based on China's annual death rate over two and a half months, they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths. It is currently unclear, however, how many of the urns have been used.

 

[Lost4words]

I think its highly likely its a lot more than that!

 

[createdtoworship]

Wuhan COVID-19 death toll may be in tens of thousands, data on cremations and shipments of urns suggest

 

[ReesePiece23]

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I'm pleased most people take the initiative to quote the abstracts - I never actually get to read the opening sentence of these blasted articles. Even if you disable the blocker, the pop ups slow everything down to dial up level.

 

[GreatLakes4Ever]

View attachment 273903

That math is wrong. 2/10 of 1% is .2%. I don’t need to read the rest of it. When they are incorrect on the things I know, why should I trust them to be correct on things I don’t know.

 

[createdtoworship]

That math is wrong. 2/10 of 1% is .2%. I don’t need to read the rest of it. When they are incorrect on the things I know, why should I trust them to be correct on things I don’t know.

well mathmatically a percent in decimal form is .01

1 is 100 percent, sorry for the confusion

 

[SeventyOne]

Wuhan COVID-19 death toll may be in tens of thousands, data on cremations and shipments of urns suggest

Found this interesting, and I still think the numbers are too low. Wuhan residents thinking at least 42k died in that city alone, about 13x more than what we are told died throughout the entire country. Their numbers are garbage. They knew it, and it spread with help of their secrecy.

Locals in Wuhan believe 42,000 people may have died from coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

 

[High Fidelity]

And the rest.

Latest projections as of today at work were 15,000 - 25,000 in the UK if we're lucky.

The U.S. figures are looking to be at least ten times that.

Troubling times indeed.

 

[wing2000]

...I expect the Chinese death numbers are much higher than officially report. That also has implications for the US, where the severity of this virus was also downplayed for the better part of 6 weeks.

I expect such behavior from the Chinese government.

 

[Vylo]

...I expect the Chinese death numbers are much higher than officially report. That also has implications for the US, where the severity of this virus was also downplayed for the better part of 6 weeks.

I expect such behavior from the Chinese government.

It should be noted that even in the US, the swine flue epidemic only had ~3,400 official deaths, but due to misclassification, multiple causes of death, etc., the estimated real deaths were around 12,000. Much of the time it isn't malicious or intentionally misleading, it is just hard to get so much data and catch everything. Totals after this has passed will probably be considerably higher than the confirmed official totals.

 

[createdtoworship]

hey guys only 1/10th of a percent are dead so far, at worst 2/10ths to 2.5/10th's of a percent. That means that if for example the virus in places like wuhan or italy got between four and ten times worse, it would still only be 1 in 100 dead. (many times that for those sick, I am only talking dead right now). Now don't get me wrong, we are doing the right thing with social distancing. And numbers and rates of contagioun can exponentially increase easily. So it's important to have quarantines. But we don't need to live in fear every day. I think the media is worried people will violate quarantine and are presenting a worst case scenario to bring fear. And I must say it's working quite well. The only thing is nowhere in scripture are we commanded to live in fear.

sources:
WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS

@GreatLakes4Ever

 

[Tanj]

View attachment 273903

You don't base mortality rate on the people that live somewhere, you base it on how many were infected. But even if these meaningless numbers had meaning, 26k dead in 11M. The US has 330M people, so according to your "basic math" that's 780 000 dead.

On topic, I find the idea of estimating a mortality rate based on some rando's comments about urn purchases to be...yeah, there are no words. China secretly hid 23000 deaths but accidentally used local funeral services and forgot they'd need urns because reasons.

 

[createdtoworship]

You don't base mortality rate on the people that live somewhere, you base it on how many were infected. But even if these meaningless numbers had meaning, 26k dead in 11M. The US has 330M people, so according to your "basic math" that's 780 000 dead.

On topic, I find the idea of estimating a mortality rate based on some rando's comments about urn purchases to be...yeah, there are no words.

The worst case scenario is wuhan and it is as of yesterday .0023, or a little over 2/10ths of a percent. So for america that would be 759,000 dead. That would be like a large city dead out of thousands of cities. Or out of 500 people in a room, 1.15 people died. Now don't get me wrong, I realize the power of compounding. I only mention this because we are already on quarantine in many states, if the CDC was not on top of it, things could compound quickly. And instead of 3/4ths of a million worst case, your looking at 20% of the US. But I don't think they would let it get that way, I think you would see cops stopping roads etc before that.

But I am not talking about mortality rates I am just presenting the overall picture, in the absolute worst case scenario, we are looking at 1% dead.

Right now the death rate of america is .00078 which is 7 hundreths of a percent.

And if elderly people realized that if they contract this illness if they just sipped warm water mixed with lemon juice (with a straw), it can increase mortality exponentially by giving them vitamin C and breaking up mucus in the throat. Most deaths are from suffocation of mucus blocking the throat. You can also use apple vinegar heated up.

 

[Tanj]

The worst case scenario is wuhan and it is as of yesterday .0023, or a little over 2/10ths of a percent. So for america that would be 759,000 dead. That would be like a large city dead out of thousands of cities. Or out of 500 people in a room, 1.15 people died.

If you have no problem with 760 000 of your countrymen dead based on the worst math I have ever seen, who am I to argue? Let's get back onto the important stuff, those nefarious urns.

 

[Allandavid]

If you have no problem with 760 000 of your countrymen dead based on the worst math I have ever seen, who am I to argue? Let's get back onto the important stuff, those nefarious urns.

I made mention in another thread of an ‘interesting’ shift in the deaths:infections ratio. At the moment (assuming the numbers are reliable), almost exactly 2% of those infected are dying. Four days ago, it was 1.5% and a week ago it was 1.3%.

So, it would seem (from a very short-term observation) that the chances of a US person infected with the virus dying, is increasing.

What say you Tanj...?

 

[Tanj]

I made mention in another thread of an ‘interesting’ shift in the deaths:infections ratio. At the moment (assuming the numbers are reliable), almost exactly 2% of those infected are dying. Four days ago, it was 1.5% and a week ago it was 1.3%.

So, it would seem (from a very short-term observation) that the chances of a US person infected with the virus dying, is increasing.

What say you Tanj...?

In the early days of any outbreak most of the people got infected recently and haven't had a chance to get ill or even die, so it will "even out" over time. More importantly it's not a meaningful number to measure in the US where the virus is still growing exponentially, and we don't really know how many are infected.

 

[Allandavid]

In the early days of any outbreak most of the people got infected recently and haven't had a chance to get ill or even die, so it will "even out" over time. More importantly it's not a meaningful number to measure in the US where the virus is still growing exponentially, and we don't really know how many are infected.

I guess a week is too short of a time span to make meaningful observations as well...yes? The numbers are likely to jump around a bit in the coming weeks...

 

[Tanj]

I guess a week is too short of a time span to make meaningful observations as well...yes? The numbers are likely to jump around a bit in the coming weeks...

Australia is a better measure of unstressed health system "pure COVID19" mortality. We are testing at a rate high enough to be confident of capturing all cases, and the current very heartening flattening of the curve suggests we will continue to do so.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Latest coronavirus death lifts national tally to 19

 

[Allandavid]

Australia is a better measure of unstressed health system "pure COVID19" mortality. We are testing at a rate high enough to be confident of capturing all cases, and the current very heartening flattening of the curve suggests we will continue to do so.

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Latest coronavirus death lifts national tally to 19

Yep. The inadequate testing is what has let the US down (amongst other structural problems). The restrictions will probably drag on for a while here (a flat curve probably also means a wider one), but I know where I’d rather be to wait it out.

 

[Tanj]

Yep. The inadequate testing is what has let the US down (amongst other structural problems). The restrictions will probably drag on for a while here (a flat curve probably also means a wider one), but I know where I’d rather be to wait it out.

I think ScoMo stepped up. I'm lucky enough to be in safe employment, but the measures he's put in place for the average Australian look good to me, both health and economy wise. The only real unknown is whether there's clusters of community based transmissions we don't know about, at the moment that seems unlikely but should know by the weekend.

A true "Western country mortality rate" should be derivable from our data in a few weeks.