WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS

[Allandavid]

I think ScoMo stepped up. I'm lucky enough to be in safe employment, but the measures he's put in place for the average Australian look good to me, both health and economy wise. The only real unknown is whether there's clusters of community based transmissions we don't know about, at the moment that seems unlikely but should know by the weekend.

A true "Western country mortality rate" should be derivable from our data in a few weeks.

Yes, our US friends would horrified at the level of ‘rampant socialism’ being practised by the conservative government down here.... I agree though. He’s not normally my cup of tea and he’s probably learnt a few brutal political lessons over the bushfire issues, but handling this exceptionally well IMHO...

 

[createdtoworship]

If you have no problem with 760 000 of your countrymen dead based on the worst math I have ever seen, who am I to argue? Let's get back onto the important stuff, those nefarious urns.

sir I don't understand how you can miss the arithmetic. You take the smaller number, the amount dead, and you divide by the overall population. Say for example you have 1 in 4 dead....divide 1 by 4, and you get .25, or 25%. This is pretty basic stuff here.

 

[Tanj]

sir I don't understand how you can miss the arithmetic.

You take the smaller number, the amount dead

Right....

and you divide by the overall population.

bzzzt. Thanks for playing! Better luck next time. What you actually divide by is the number of infected.

Dividing by the population is meaningless. And lets not forget your "smaller number" is an extrapolation based on some rando talking about urn sales.

Me: How do we work out how many Americans died?
creaatedtoworship: Easy! We count the number of funeral wreaths owned by interflora.

 

[createdtoworship]

Right....



bzzzt. Thanks for playing! Better luck next time. What you actually divide by is the number of infected.

Dividing by the population is meaningless. And lets not forget your "smaller number" is an extrapolation based on some rando talking about urn sales.

Me: How do we work out how many Americans died?
creaatedtoworship: Easy! We count the number of funeral wreaths owned by interflora.

sir you are calculating what is called a media mortality rate, I was NEVER doing that. I am calculating overall real mortality rate. The reason why media is focussing on mortality rates over the real rates, is because the stats are higher. It's like 6 or 7%, and sounds scarier. So my original post is accurate that the News is afraid people will not honor the stay at home, or social distancing and are trying to make this thing scarier. But in america right now we are .00078 death rate. That means that we are 7 hundredths of a percent death rate of overall population.

here it defines the real mortality rate as the amount of deaths divided by overall population:
Basic Statistics: About Incidence, Prevalence, Morbidity, and Mortality - Statistics Teaching Tools - New York State Department of Health

 

[Tanj]

sir you are calculating what is called a media mortality rate

That's not what it is called.

I was NEVER doing that. I am calculating overall real mortality rate.

No, You are calculating a meaningless number by dividing urn sales by the population of Wuhan.

The reason why media is focussing on mortality rates over the real rates

I couldn't care less what the media is doing. Is this the bit where I once again mention I have a PhD in viral epidemiology and 30 years experience in biomedical research? I guess it is.

is because the stats are higher. It's like 6 or 7%, and sounds scarier.

The media is currently going with 100 000 to 200 000 US dead. You are going with 760 000. And you think it's the media that's being scary.

here it defines the real mortality rate as the amount of deaths divided by overall population:
Basic Statistics: About Incidence, Prevalence, Morbidity, and Mortality - Statistics Teaching Tools - New York State Department of Health

Crude death rates are unhelpful for any infectious disease especially absent prevalence and incidence. Death-to-case ratio is what matters.

 

[createdtoworship]

The media is currently going with 100 000 to 200 000 US dead. You are going with 760 000. And you think it's the media that's being scary.

sir I don't think anything you have said in this post is actually accurate. But I don't feel the need to fight with you. The latest count which was a few days ago was only 3000 dead in america. Check this link:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

 

[Allandavid]

This is tentatively encouraging...

That curve is taking on a concave-down shape, which suggests a maximum or peak is approaching...

 

[Allandavid]

sir I don't think anything you have said in this post is actually accurate. But I don't feel the need to fight with you. The latest count which was a few days ago was only 3000 dead in america. Check this link:
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

Oh dear...

That 3000 is a point on an exponential growth curve...!

It would suggest that, by next weekend, there will be 4000 dead....and 8000 by the weekend after that.

 

[createdtoworship]

Oh dear...

That 3000 is a point on an exponential growth curve...!

It would suggest that, by next weekend, there will be 4000 dead....and 8000 by the weekend after that.

I don't think the math is there yet, for death to double in a week your talking compouds of 10,s on the new cases. If the death rate in general populus is on average 1/10th of a percent, do the math.....how many cases would that be? I think they are saying 6 or 7% die of those who have contracted it. So contractions will be much much higher.

 

[createdtoworship]

 

[Allandavid]

View attachment 273953

How many of those are growing EXPONENTIALLY..!?

 

[Allandavid]

I don't think the math is there yet, for death to double in a week your talking compouds of 10,s on the new cases. If the death rate in general populus is on average 1/10th of a percent, do the math.....how many cases would that be? I think they are saying 6 or 7% die of those who have contracted it. So contractions will be much much higher.

In the US, the deaths have been doubling in less than a week, for the last month...!

 

[Vylo]

This is tentatively encouraging...
View attachment 273952
That curve is taking on a concave-down shape, which suggests a maximum or peak is approaching...

Not enough tests is a large factor, and/or people not getting tested. I'm in the #2 infected state and only know 1 person who has been tested so far.

 

[Allandavid]

Not enough tests is a large factor, and/or people not getting tested. I'm in the #2 infected state and only know 1 person who has been tested so far.

Sure, and that’s why I said “tentative”. It’s certainly more encouraging, though, than continuing to see that exponential growth shape.

You’re right, it’s still too early. The biggest problem is that the data is soooo incomplete, due to the paucity of testing...

 

[createdtoworship]

How many of those are growing EXPONENTIALLY..!?

your own post showed the curve was flattening here:
WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS

 

[Allandavid]

Ouch...!

Only took one day to erase my optimism.

Nearly 1,000 dead in 24 hours...

Consider....from 500 to 1,000: 3 days....from 1,000 to 2,000: 3 days...from 2,000 to 4,000: 3 days...from 4,000 to 8,000: ??

 

[createdtoworship]

In the US, the deaths have been doubling in less than a week, for the last month...!

no so, I was watching it all last week, it was like between 10-25% a day increase in cases.

 

[Allandavid]

no so, I was watching it all last week, it was like between 10-25% a day increase in cases.

Then you need help with your sight...

Look at my post above. During this week they have been doubling every 3 days...!

 

[createdtoworship]

Then you need help with your sight...

Look at my post above. During this week they have been doubling every 3 days...!

I didn't see it do you have a link?

but if new cases are flattening out, then deaths will flatten out. So your giving sort of conflicting data. Again even Trump is saying hundreds of thousands will get sick and that may be. But not dead. Again for 300 million people hundreds of thousands are not even 1 percent of the population, above I share how flu deaths year to date are way greater than corona at 121,000 (year to date), corona is only a little over 40,000. So four times as much for the same time period. Abortions for the same period= 10.6 MILLION. Again I think we are doing the right things, quarantine, social distancing, I even think the government should make masks mandatory for going out in public. But I don't feel we should live in fear. I also verified the last three days doubling idea. For the world that is not the case.

again see corona stats here for the world:
I checked the 30th and the 31st, which was the latest recorded stats on the world, and deaths only increased by a little over 10% in a day.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 862,495 Cases and 42,510 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[Tanj]

Again even Trump is saying hundreds of thousands will get sick

No, Trump said hundreds of thousands will die.

But not dead.

Yes, dead.

White House projects 100K to 240K coronavirus deaths as Trump tells US to prepare for ‘very painful two weeks’