Why worry about global warming?

[Mikecpking]

You know I am not saying this to be smart or insulting - but for the life of me I cannot see how some people can believe some of the lies that are put out there. All the lies that are presented to suck money out of our economy is beyond belief. I have lived 76 years and the weather has been the same. Look at what all the lies have created in our country - I am sitting here looking at brown grass and 31 days over 100 degrees - but that is the same weather in Texas that has been for hundreds of years. Our country is going down the tubes because we cannot drill for oil and gas because they say it is ruining our enviornment. If only we had leaders that we could believe we would all get behind whatever movement we needed to help.

This may keep it in perspective. Icde is disappearing at a very fast rate in the arctic and is way below the mean.

IJIS Web Site

 

[Mikecpking]

Irrelevant! Your point is that in our earth area, our laws do stuff. Of course they do. Let's take it far far away now! Again, what reason is there to assume that only our earth laws and forces apply there...not here?
Irrelevant! No one asked if our laws work here, one would assume they do. Now stick your clock or gps in far far stars, and see what happens!

The fact is the same laws have been observed.

Now, please substantiate your rebuttals, or put up and shut up!

 

[Chalnoth]

You know I am not saying this to be smart or insulting - but for the life of me I cannot see how some people can believe some of the lies that are put out there. All the lies that are presented to suck money out of our economy is beyond belief. I have lived 76 years and the weather has been the same.

Sharon, this is simply not true. First of all, the changes are slow and relatively small, so it's pretty obvious that you wouldn't necessarily notice the changes in your daily weather.

The warming we've experienced so far, for example, is only about one degree Fahrenheit. The day-to-day temperatures tend to change by more than that! So of course you aren't going to notice the temperature in the day-to-day weather.

So to see global climate change, at least at the levels that have occurred so far, you have to look pretty carefully. And when you do look carefully, the effects are abundant. For example, growing seasons have lengthened all over the globe. Glaciers are retreating nearly everywhere. Ice is covering less and less of the Arctic sea every year, and the ice that is covering the sea is getting thinner and thinner. Greenland is melting at a record pace. More and more rainfall is falling in strong storms. Extreme events, such as floods and droughts are getting more common.

There really isn't any disputing this. The effects of global warming are out there for everybody to see, if only they take the time to look into it carefully. Sure, they're not always blatantly obvious in your daily life, but they are definitively there.

Our country is going down the tubes because we cannot drill for oil and gas because they say it is ruining our enviornment. If only we had leaders that we could believe we would all get behind whatever movement we needed to help.

Um, that is also false. First of all, there simply is not enough oil in the ground in the United States to make a dent. The US was the first nation to actively drill for oil, and we've already used up essentially all of our easy-to-reach reserves. The ones that remain are very expensive to reach, and even if we did reach them wouldn't produce enough oil to make a difference. The only thing that drilling more would do is make a few oil barons rich. And that won't help you or me or anybody else.

Instead, the current problem with the economy is completely different, and it's mostly an issue about the details of how finance works than anything fundamental about resources. Basically, we're in a situation right now where people all over the US are trying to pay down their debts. But to pay down your debt, you need to spend less money. The difficulty there is that when you drop your spending, well, your spending is another person's income, so when you try to pay down your debt, somebody else's income falls. So when everybody tries to pay down their debts, everybody's income falls, and people just end up out of work and in worse shape.

That is the problem we are facing, and the only response that is going to work is the response that nobody in politics is talking about: we need another New Deal. We need the government to get out there and buy a lot of things that will help grow our economy into the future. We need to invest in alternative energy. We need to improve our electrical grid. We need to shore up our roads. We need to improve our passenger trains. In short, we need the government to step in and invest in the future, at a time when the government can borrow at record-low rates, so that people can pay down our debts.

So yes, we absolutely can fight global warming at the same time that we recover our economy. In fact, fighting global warming will help our economy to recover.

 

[dad]

The fact is the same laws have been observed.

Now, please substantiate your rebuttals, or put up and shut up!

Observed where? Focus.


Hey what is the scoop on this?

"The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted,..."

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism - James Taylor - Endpoint Analysis - Forbes

?

 

[USincognito]

New Study of NASA Data May Debunk Global Warming Predictions

Oh goodie. A "news" piece by a deiner about something not related to the science from Glenn Beck's The Blaze. Must be true...

Debunks all the lies about global warming. All that money that went into it - the billions Al Gore sucked out of the economy, light bulbs that we don't want, toy cars we don't like, millions and millions spent to protect our environment - polar bears drowning (that arn't) - I heard today that Al Gore was being stripped of his science license, I wonder if they give back the Nobel Prize money -

Source: The Blaze - article on line now.

Hmmm, let's see. Sharon thinks this "news" story debunks global warming but...

Money - has nothing to do with climate science.
Al Gore - has nothing to do with climate science.
CFLs - btw, you're an idiot if you don't switch over like I did years ago for cost savings, forget the continuing price drop in LEDs, but nothing to do with climate science.
Controlling pollution or direct environmental damage - nothing to do with climate science.
Polar bears - this smacks of denier mythology. I'd love to see some serious studies. The simple fact is the artic ice is melting and not returning year after year.
Al Gore - again has nothing to do with climate science, and where did you get this bizarre assertion that he'd been "stripped of his science license"?

You know I am not saying this to be smart or insulting - but for the life of me I cannot see how some people can believe some of the lies that are put out there. All the lies that are presented to suck money out of our economy is beyond belief.

If you're going to talk about lies, it's best to have actual evidence showing the claims you don't like are lies instead of just calling them such.

I have lived 76 years and the weather has been the same.

I was going to say no it has not, but your use of "weather" rather than climate gives you some wiggle room. But not enough. You're just old enough to remember the Dust Bowl, but have you actually studied the climate patterns and temperature averages since then? I'm in Dallas and the legendarily hottest year was 1980 (well before I moved here). That single year though doesn't change the fact that we had a severe post Dust Bowl heat wave in the mid-50s which has been largely superceeded by the heat since 1997. The loudest alarm bell is the average heat in a year as opposed to a cold winter and a hot summer. 2011 has been crazy hot for the summer, but the average temp this year, despite the snow and ice storms in February - note, not in November or January, but February - is the highest average yet.

Look at what all the lies have created in our country - I am sitting here looking at brown grass and 31 days over 100 degrees - but that is the same weather in Texas that has been for hundreds of years.

Again, you conflate weather with climate, while at the same time acting like record heat waves have occured with regularity in the past. They have not. The heat waves in the last 13 years make the heat waves in the past pale by comparison when looked at in the long term.

Our country is going down the tubes because we cannot drill for oil and gas because they say it is ruining our enviornment. If only we had leaders that we could believe we would all get behind whatever movement we needed to help.

And here we are back to the economic arguments that have nothing to do with the science of climate change. Also I'd note that you must not live next to a coal mine, oil well or natural gas fracking station because the coal, oil and natural gas we extract from the earth has a bit more of an environmental impact than just digging a water well.

 

[Chalnoth]

And here we are back to the economic arguments that have nothing to do with the science of climate change. Also I'd note that you must not live next to a coal mine, oil well or natural gas fracking station because the coal, oil and natural gas we extract from the earth has a bit more of an environmental impact than just digging a water well.

Indeed. Here's what you get in Pennsylvania near fracking:
‪CAN YOU DO THIS WITH YOUR TAP WATER?‬‏ - YouTube

 

[Tim the Plumber]

Irrelevant! Your point is that in our earth area, our laws do stuff. Of course they do. Let's take it far far away now! Again, what reason is there to assume that only our earth laws and forces apply there...not here?
Irrelevant! No one asked if our laws work here, one would assume they do. Now stick your clock or gps in far far stars, and see what happens!

The same gravitational lensing has been seen, lots, of far away galaxies causing the light of even further away galaxies to be bent around them.

Far distant galaxies rotate the same as this one does. The rate of rotation can only be understood with the same theories that work here. Stars in distant galaxies can go nova like they can in our galaxy.

There is overwhelming evidence that the laws of physics have been the same for the last 13.7(or whatever the number is) billion years.

You are denying that the sky is blue.

 

[Tim the Plumber]

Chalnoth,

I would use the quote option but I does not work when it contains a link.

From the climate congress link. Page 9.

The total melt rate of Greenland is shown as 600Gt (600 cubic kilometers) over 5 years. At that rate this, if it does not reach a new stability point as the effects of altitude stop it melting more ice (100m altitude increase results in 1 degree c temp loss), will result in an icrease in sea level of 3.5 cm by 2100.

The thermal expansion of the oceans will depend on the temperature of the air above them. If the temperature increased by 1 degree today then after 100 years the ocean will have expanded by 14 cm. I can find the report for you if you need it but It might take a while.

The temperature graph in the climate congress link shows an increase of 0.6 degrees over 40 years with the last 10-15 years showing either stability or a drop in temperature. That's the bit that does not fit with the models.

“It took me years, but letting go of religion has been the most profound wake up of my life. I feel I now look at the world not as a child, but as an adult. I see what's bad and it's really bad. But I also see what is beautiful, what is wonderful. And I feel so deeply appreciative that I am alive. How dare the religious use the term 'born again.' That truly describes freethinkers who've thrown off the shackles of religion so much better!” - Julia Sweeney

Are you sure that you have not replaced one religion with another? I start my argument by acepting the IPCC's predictions. It's those I use to ilustrate why there is no need to panic about the slight problem that is supposed to be coming to us. The fact that the same people who shout the alarm and tell us all to panic causes me to also suspect that their theories are questionable. That and the lack of their theories to corectly predict the present temperature. Predicting the past is easy after all.

 

[Tim the Plumber]

Predicting the past is easy after all.

Unless you are "dad"

 

[dad]

The same gravitational lensing has been seen, lots, of far away galaxies causing the light of even further away galaxies to be bent around them.

As I said, of course there is bending. Now, how do you establish that gravity is all that does it far far away? Seems you merely look at near earth laws and forces and assume they are all that is at work anywhere. I need evidence, and prefer to remain open minded until there is some. Not that I care much either way.

Far distant galaxies rotate the same as this one does. The rate of rotation can only be understood with the same theories that work here. Stars in distant galaxies can go nova like they can in our galaxy.

Nope, without the distance, that means we do not know the size. As you know, little things also orbit, and gravity isn't a big player! So whay believe that only gravity makes stuff revolve far away. when distance is not really even known, or size, composition, etc etc? Better to know a bit about what you claim.

 

[dad]

Indeed. Here's what you get in Pennsylvania near fracking:
‪CAN YOU DO THIS WITH YOUR TAP WATER?‬‏ - YouTube

In this imperfect world, this sin filled world, tapping the resources of earth comes with a price tag. Now, would we rather buy this guy all the clean water from somewhere else he wants, or a new place, etc...and have the energy for all, or would we rather starve hordes of people using the corn for gas?

If you never fly, or drive, or shop at a store that had food delivered by a truck, etc...then you can cast the first eco hypocrite stone. Until then, no purveyor of real morals are you.

 

[Delphiki]

You guys have to understand people like dad, here. Even if we hopped on a spaceship and approached a distant planetary system, and thoroughly examined and recorded everything we could about it, dad would just simply deny that we even went there in the first place. It won't matter how much evidence you bring. I wouldn't be surprised if he subscribed to the moon-landing-was-faked conspiracy theory. Or is that within the magical confines of the same-state-physics dad-bubble?

 

[dad]

You guys have to understand people like dad, here. Even if we hopped on a spaceship and approached a distant planetary system, and thoroughly examined and recorded everything we could about it, dad would just simply deny that we even went there in the first place. It won't matter how much evidence you bring. I wouldn't be surprised if he subscribed to the moon-landing-was-faked conspiracy theory. Or is that within the magical confines of the same-state-physics dad-bubble?

Silliness. The moon is near earth. No one has questioned laws there. Your attempted point of 'if we really actually did go somewhere far away, and actually know something, yecs would deny it...' is nonsense. If you knew something we would not be having this little chat.

 

[Jazer]

the changes are slow and relatively small,

Time does keep on ticking. It use to be that when they built a building they intended for it to last 100 years. Now it is more like 25 years. But for city planning they still have to take into consideration what the water level maybe 100 years from now and that it will most likely be higher then what it is now. It is just not a good idea to invest in real estate that is on a flood plane or a potential flood plan. It is going to be difficult to get insurance because insurance companys have maps and they know what is going to be at a higher risk. If people do not believe then they should sell flood insurance. If there is no flooding, then they will make lots of money.

 

[Jazer]

tapping the resources of earth comes with a price tag.

Soon we will enter into the 1000 year reign of Christ. I would imagine that all the resources will be renewable. Perhaps we will have hydrogen power or something like that.

 

[dad]

Soon we will enter into the 1000 year reign of Christ. I would imagine that all the resources will be renewable. Perhaps we will have hydrogen power or something like that.

"We"?? I thought that we would be in New Jerusalem? The folks on earth will have new laws in place it seems, like it was pre flood. Long lives, fast plant growth, etc. I doubt they will be allowed to really pollute, but likely be more agrarian in nature...?

 

[Chalnoth]

Chalnoth,

I would use the quote option but I does not work when it contains a link.

From the climate congress link. Page 9.

The total melt rate of Greenland is shown as 600Gt (600 cubic kilometers) over 5 years. At that rate this, if it does not reach a new stability point as the effects of altitude stop it melting more ice (100m altitude increase results in 1 degree c temp loss), will result in an icrease in sea level of 3.5 cm by 2100.

The thermal expansion of the oceans will depend on the temperature of the air above them. If the temperature increased by 1 degree today then after 100 years the ocean will have expanded by 14 cm. I can find the report for you if you need it but It might take a while.

Yeah, um, pretty sure you should back that up. Because I've already shown you research that suggests that 1m of sea level rise by 2100 is quite likely.

The temperature graph in the climate congress link shows an increase of 0.6 degrees over 40 years with the last 10-15 years showing either stability or a drop in temperature. That's the bit that does not fit with the models.

The last 10-15 years absolutely do not show either stability or a drop in temperatures. This is most clearly illustrated by looking at the 5-year running average (red line):

It appears you are doing the usual denialist thing of measuring from 1998 (an unusually warm year), and thinking it means a drop over the subsequent years. This is wrong. The fact that it was flanked by unusually cool years makes it so that 1998 doesn't even produce a blip in the trend (unusually cool compared to the average trend: these years were still warmer than anything prior to 1985 or so).

Are you sure that you have not replaced one religion with another?

Completely.

I start my argument by acepting the IPCC's predictions. It's those I use to ilustrate why there is no need to panic about the slight problem that is supposed to be coming to us. The fact that the same people who shout the alarm and tell us all to panic causes me to also suspect that their theories are questionable. That and the lack of their theories to corectly predict the present temperature. Predicting the past is easy after all.

And I have shown you why the IPCC predictions are underestimating the problem (by around a factor of two!) compared to the best-available science in the case of sea rise. That you have ignored it is your problem, not mine.

 

[Chalnoth]

As I suspected, there would be a good response to the Spencer and Braswell paper in relatively short order:
RealClimate: “Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedback”

It looks like the main takeaways are:
1. Spencer and Braswell didn't even bother to estimate the errors, so they simply cannot support the statement that climate models don't match the data. In order to say that, you have to know how much scatter there is in the model in the first place. And as they show at the RealClimate link, all of the climate models are reasonably-consistent with the data.
2. Spencer and Braswell simply do not support the statement that climate models are overestimating the forcing. In fact, the models that fit the data more strongly are models which have higher forcings.
3. Spencer and Braswell apparently have some basic misunderstandings of climate (e.g. the nature of clouds as they relate to climate change).

 

[[serious]]

Irrelevant! Your point is that in our earth area, our laws do stuff. Of course they do. Let's take it far far away now! Again, what reason is there to assume that only our earth laws and forces apply there...not here?
Irrelevant! No one asked if our laws work here, one would assume they do. Now stick your clock or gps in far far stars, and see what happens!

We see the same lensing around distant massive objects:
Einstein Cross - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[dad]

We see the same lensing around distant massive objects:
Einstein Cross - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Excellent. So what proves that the lensing here is caused by gravity?? That info needs to be part of any link you toss out.