Trump, Biden win New Hampshire. Exit poll finds 27% Of Nikki Haley’s Voters Are Republicans

[Ana the Ist]

...CNN exit poll. The question was, "Do you think Biden legitimately won in 2020?"

AMONG TRUMP VOTERS
Yes: 17%
No: 80%

AMONG HALEY VOTERS
Yes: 83%
No: 15%

80% of Republican NH primary voters believe the Big Lie.

Legitimately is a rather ambiguous question. A lot of people believe that spreading misinformation online or through conventional media is a dirty tactic that delegitimizes election results.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Doesn't seem likely. After all, let's not forget, Trump has never won the popular vote. He managed to secure enough electoral votes in 2016, but more people voted for Hilary than for Trump.

-- A2SG, and the fact that he won in some swing states could be attributed more to Anti-Hilary votes than Pro-Trump...he won't get that this time around...

The main problem with assessing Trump's popular support is the constant demonization of his supporters.

If you say "these people are scum" and then shove a mic in their face asking if they're one of those people....many are but won't admit it.

 

[A2SG]

The main problem with assessing Trump's popular support is the constant demonization of his supporters.

If you say "these people are scum" and then shove a mic in their face asking if they're one of those people....many are but won't admit it.

Um...okay.

Not sure what that has to do with anything I said, but...um, you said it.

-- A2SG, good for you, dude...

 

[Ana the Ist]

This is a funny and strange troupe being touted by the extreme MAGA faithful.

These people will believe anything.

You have no idea how primaries work, huh?

 

[Ana the Ist]

Um...okay.

Not sure what that has to do with anything I said, but...um, you said it.

-- A2SG, good for you, dude...

You said it didn't seem likely Trump had enough support to win in November.

 

[JSRG]

-- A2SG, and the fact that he won in some swing states could be attributed more to Anti-Hilary votes than Pro-Trump...he won't get that this time around...

While technically speaking he wouldn't get anti-Hillary votes, he could easily get Anti-Biden votes. Actually, he could get more, because Biden seems less popular than Hillary, at least in terms of approval polling.

If we try to compare Hillary's approval ratings at the same time in the election cycle in 2016 as right now, in January of 2016, Hillary's approval polling was around 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable. At the time of the election itself, it had gotten slightly worse, as she held a 42% favorable, 54% unfavorable (Source) Biden right now is at 39% favorable, 56% unfavorable. (Source) These numbers indicate there is actually stronger Anti-Biden sentiment right now than there was Anti-Hillary at the same time in the election cycle!

For comparison, Trump was at 42% favorable, 49% unfavorable in late January 2016 (source), and is now at 43% favorable, 52% unfavorable (source).

So, sure, he won't get Anti-Hillary votes. But that doesn't mean that much, because his opponent is (presumably) Biden, and people right now like Biden even less than they liked Hillary during the 2016 election, at least based on the polling.

 

[A2SG]

You said it didn't seem likely Trump had enough support to win in November.

Yup. Based on the fact that he's never won the popular vote.

I never said a word about anything Trump supporters were asked on camera, or whether they'd admit to supporting Trump on camera.

-- A2SG, though, granted, there are plenty of videos out there of Trump supporters saying the most profoundly silly things while professing their support for Trump...and many (though, not all) never even realize they're being made fun of....

 

[Ana the Ist]

Yup. Based on the fact that he's never won the popular vote.

Right...but I shouldn't have to tell you that doesn't actually matter.

I never said a word about anything Trump supporters were asked on camera, or whether they'd admit to supporting Trump on camera.

Right...its a statement about how support is harder to assess.

 

[Ana the Ist]

While technically speaking he wouldn't get anti-Hillary votes, he could easily get Anti-Biden votes. Actually, he could get more, because Biden seems less popular than Hillary, at least in terms of approval polling.

If we try to compare Hillary's approval ratings at the same time in the election cycle in 2016 as right now, in January of 2016, Hillary's approval polling was around 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable. At the time of the election itself, it had gotten slightly worse, as she held a 42% favorable, 54% unfavorable (Source) Biden right now is at 39% favorable, 56% unfavorable. (Source) These numbers indicate there is actually stronger Anti-Biden sentiment right now than there was Anti-Hillary at the same time in the election cycle!

For comparison, Trump was at 42% favorable, 49% unfavorable in late January 2016 (source), and is now at 43% favorable, 52% unfavorable (source).

So, sure, he won't get Anti-Hillary votes. But that doesn't mean that much, because his opponent is (presumably) Biden, and people right now like Biden even less than they liked Hillary during the 2016 election, at least based on the polling.

Yeah...and let's not forget, Biden’s selling points were...

1. I'm not Trump.

2. A return to "normalcy".

1. only succeeds if you're actually a better president. Somehow, that didn't happen.

2. Never even came close to happening....unless "normalcy" just means "more war".

 

[A2SG]

While technically speaking he wouldn't get anti-Hillary votes, he could easily get Anti-Biden votes. Actually, he could get more, because Biden seems less popular than Hillary, at least in terms of approval polling.

If we try to compare Hillary's approval ratings at the same time in the election cycle in 2016 as right now, in January of 2016, Hillary's approval polling was around 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable. At the time of the election itself, it had gotten slightly worse, as she held a 42% favorable, 54% unfavorable (Source) Biden right now is at 39% favorable, 56% unfavorable. (Source) These numbers indicate there is actually stronger Anti-Biden sentiment right now than there was Anti-Hillary at the same time in the election cycle!

For comparison, Trump was at 42% favorable, 49% unfavorable in late January 2016 (source), and is now at 43% favorable, 52% unfavorable (source).

So, sure, he won't get Anti-Hillary votes. But that doesn't mean that much, because his opponent is (presumably) Biden, and people right now like Biden even less than they liked Hillary during the 2016 election, at least based on the polling.

Not sure about that, really. Back in 2016, no one knew how Trump would fare as President, so if you didn't like Hilary, a vote for Trump was just an anti-Hilary vote. Now, given not only how badly many feel Trump fared as President, and how he's acted since losing the last election (to say nothing of his guilty verdicts and the 90+ criminal indictments still pending), I'd say there are a lot more anti-Trump voters out there than there were in 2016. And those anti-Trump voters will vote for President Biden, whether they approve of him or not.

This, countered with the fact that Trump, even as an unknown quantity, has never won the popular vote, doesn't seem to predict a MAGA win come November.

But, you're provided figures, so let's see how the math works out: using your figures, that gives Biden 39% (favorable Biden) + 49% (unfavorable Trump), add a chunk of his own unfavorable votes, to add up to over 88% of the vote.

Trump, by comparison, can count on 43% (favorable Trump), but he can't count on all of Biden's unfavorable votes, because some might go to Haley, RFK Jr. or elsewhere. So, he might possibly get better that 50%...but given that, even at his most popular, he's never won the popular vote, that's questionable, at best.

Granted, this is all speculation of course...but I don't see how this looks good for MAGA.

-- A2SG, not that reality matters much to a large segment of Trump supporters....

 

[A2SG]

Right...but I shouldn't have to tell you that doesn't actually matter.

Why not? Given Trump's actions as President, his behavior after losing the last election, and his multiple guilty verdicts (plus over 90 criminal indictments to come), do you think he's gained MORE supporters, somehow?

Right...its a statement about how support is harder to assess.

I didn't count support, I counted actual votes. More actual voters voted for Hilary Clinton as president in 2016 than voted for Trump.

In 2020, more actual voters voted for Joe Biden than voted for Trump.

-- A2SG, that's just math....

 

[Ana the Ist]

Why not?

Because twice in just 16 years a president has won without the popular vote.

I didn't count support, I counted actual votes. More actual voters voted for Hilary Clinton as president in 2016 than voted for Trump.

Right...and Trump won. That's why the popular vote doesn't matter the way you seem to think it does.

 

[A2SG]

Because twice in just 16 years a president has won without the popular vote.

True enough. But in 2000, the vote came down to a SCOTUS decision, so that's something of an outlier.

Right...and Trump won. That's why the popular vote doesn't matter the way you seem to think it does.

Yup, he did gain enough of a majority in certain swing states to gain the electoral votes necessary. But that was before his term of office, his actions after losing the last election, and his multiple guilty verdicts and 90+ pending criminal indictments....so I'd say his support has wavered a bit.

But...if your only point is that we don't know for sure what will happen, I'll grant that.

-- A2SG, not sure what other point you're trying to make, if any, though....

 

[Valletta]

True enough. But in 2000, the vote came down to a SCOTUS decision, so that's something of an outlier.

I think it will come down to who people think will best handle the economy, border, crime, and foreign policy.

 

[A2SG]

If people could be convinced that Trump actually did something seriously criminal.

Fraud (for hundreds of millions of dollars), sexual assault and defamation aren't serious? Granted, he's been found guilty in civil court rather than criminal, but he still did those things, no?

But that would take a prosecutor who had not campaigned on getting Trump and a jury from a not heavily Democrat fanatical area. And real evidence.

There are over 90 indictments pending, all of which have evidence. I guess we'll have to see how all of those turn out.

J6 committee type kangaroo courts are not going to do it.

Which court that Trump will be tried in isn't a legitimate court, exactly?

Each time they go after conservative Catholics or evangelical Christians or judge moms who speak before school boards as domestic terrorists they lose credibility.

Well, some courts may lose credibility among those aggrieved groups, but that hardly affects the outcome of any specific case, does it?

-- A2SG, courts render verdicts based on evidence, not the feelings or credibility of any specific group....

 

[A2SG]

I think it will come down to who people think will best handle the economy, border, crime, and foreign policy.

Let's hope people vote for the better candidate, regardless of what issues they prefer.

-- A2SG, cuz Trump ain't it....

 

[RDKirk]

2. Never even came close to happening....unless "normalcy" just means "more war".

For the US, it historically rather does.

 

[mark46]

I think it will come down to who people think will best handle the economy, border, crime, and foreign policy.

WOW!
No, the election is about whether the people want Trump elected. His party has no platform. The election is all about Trump.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

True enough. But in 2000, the vote came down to a SCOTUS decision, so that's something of an outlier.

And it should be pointed out that prior to 2000, the last time the winning presidential candidate lost the popular vote was 1888.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

1988, si.

Nope, I didn't typo. Benjamin Harrison in 1888 was the last US president to not win the popular vote prior to Bush in 2000. There have been a fair number of cases of presidents not winning the majority of the popular vote, but 1988 wasn't one of those either (Bush Sr. won with 53% of the popular vote that year).

List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org