An alternative hypothesis: Trump's politics skills (such as they are) don't exist in a vacuum: context is everything. The American electorate, worn down by decades of neoliberal technical managerialism, lost faith in major social institutions after the 2008 financial crisis, which made them vulnerable to demagogues.
I agree with all your points.
Conservative media, including Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck, has significantly influenced American right-wing political ideology.
W. Bush's failures, especially the Iraq war and financial crises, led many conservatives to abandon traditional conservatism in favor of populist ideas. These views often lack merit but remain popular; for instance, supporting high tariffs on Canadian goods without understanding their economic impact is a widespread but misguided patriotic sentiment.
For twenty-five years, conservative media have portrayed immigrants, particularly those from South America, in a negative light. As a result, when then-candidate Trump gave his first speech descending the escalator—criticizing immigrants—it sounded dark, divisive, and un-American to many who do not follow outlets like Fox News or Rush Limbaugh. However, for conservative viewers, it felt as though a politician was finally speaking what they perceived as the truth.
Of course, President Trump capitalized on the prevailing ideology and mentality within the current conservative movement. However, the question remains: why was no one else able to appeal to these voters as effectively as President Trump?
While some may not agree with President Trump or may perceive his supporters as overly simplistic, it is important to acknowledge President Trump’s ability to consistently retain the loyalty of approximately 40% of American voters. Such steadfast support can only be maintained by a highly skilled politician.
Democrats have lost two out of three times to President Trump because they consistently underestimated his political abilities since he announced his candidacy in 2015. Even today they are underestimating him.