Shutdown Poll

[rambot]

"What actually happened" as in what I actually said, I only asked a question, nothing more.

Seriously it isn't worth all this lol.

Ok. I did answer your question. I guess you were waiting for someone else to do so....

 

[LostMarbels]

How long do you think the shutdown will last?

Unknown, indefinite.

Why?

That's what everyone is focused on. Gotta control that news cycle.

 

[usexpat97]

Impeachment is going to be used as a bargaining chip. Trump will shut down anything he can to stall impeachment. This is going to be a long one.

 

[Fantine]

If it lasts for years, as Trump says it could, I think he would be hard pressed to get a vote from his own children in 2020. All those tax refunds that wouldn't get paid out---and all those blue-collar white workers who receive earned income tax credits and get tax refunds worth thousands of dollars having all that time to bemoan the biggest mistake they ever made in their lives....

 

[usexpat97]

All those tax refunds that wouldn't get paid out

Somehow, I don't think Trump minds putting IRS auditors on furlough.

 

[Vicomte13]

Why would Trump put the American people through an unnecessary government shutdown if he doesn’t need Congress to build the wall?

Because it is a test of wills. The Question can be put exactly the other way too: why would the Democrats put the American people over an unnecessary government shutdown over $5 billion!?

If Trump proceeds with Congress, the Democrats will rush to a favorable Democrat judge to stop Trump during the long aapeals process, which leaves the Democrat House free to pursue investigations of Trump without any political pain.

By doing it this way, Trump inflicts the maximum pain on the portions of government that mostly employ Democrats or regulate Republican businesses. The government shutdown is only partial. The poor, the military and law enforcement are all open and funded. It’s the regulatory agencies, full of Democrats and enforcing policies that skew Democrat that are shut down. In this way, Trump effectively deregulates, by simply shutting down the regulators and cancelling all monitoring of Democrat-imposed policies.

So, a bunch of mostly Democrat government officials sit home with no paycheck, business and manufacturing gets a regulatory holiday, Democrats in Congress get half the blame (because its only $5 billion he’s asked for), and Trump’s own base gets shored up, strengthened and more and more solidly mobilized the longer the shutdown goes on.

If Trump tries to build the Wall without the shutdown, and without capitulation by Congress, the Democrats stop him with one friendly Democrat judge, and they move forward with their agenda. The pain is maximized for Trumpand the Republicans.

But if Trump keeps the government closed until the Democrat House capitulates, he gets stronger, and they get weaker.

That’s why Trump will not back down. If the government stays partially shut down for two years, until the 2020 elections, Trump’s chances of winning re-election and the Republicans’ chances of recapturing the House are very much enhanced. Trump knows this, so he has no incentive to compromise at all. And given the degree of crap he’s been put through, he’s not inclined to give the Democrats an inch on anything.

So, the Democrats will have to cave and give him $4 billion or sum for “Border security”, including Trump’s Wall. The quicker they realize that they are caught in a fight they cannot win, accept defeat, give him his pennies and move on, the better for them. Trump is going to win this one either way. The Democrats have to decide if they want to take the loss quick and get it over with, or stretch it out into a disaster of much greater magnitude for themselves and their side.

Trump has them on this one.

 

[Vicomte13]

Somehow, I don't think Trump minds putting IRS auditors on furlough.

Or SEC examiners

 

[Vicomte13]

We are in day 13

And now it’s day 14. A year from today we may be on day 379.

 

[evoeth]

This is the 21st day of the shutdown. At 6 AM tomorrow we'll be on day 22.

 

[evoeth]

Today is day 28. Tomorrow at 6 am will be day 29.

 

[Paulos23]

I cast my vote of 36+ as a joke, but now I am wishing it will not come to pass.

 

[evoeth]

I cast my vote of 36+ as a joke, but now I am wishing it will not come to pass.

Yeah. I had 29-35. We'll know more Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday is the drop dead date for government payroll the following Friday. That's when federal workers will definitely NOT have money in time for rent.

 

[evoeth]

Trump says he will make a 'major' announcement on Saturday about border and shutdown


COME ON 29-35!

 

[Ringo84]

A """major announcement""" in the middle of the afternoon. On a Saturday.

What a desperate loser.
Ringo

 

[evoeth]

A """major announcement""" in the middle of the afternoon. On a Saturday.

What a desperate loser.
Ringo

During a 3 day weekend! But MLK is not a real holiday for the white nationalists.

 

[Vicomte13]

Day 31. Woo hoo! For small-government types, this is an unexpected way to achieve their goal. Government’s been shut down a month, and hardly anybody notices.

Democrats don’t accept Trump’s proposal, and so the shutdown will continue. There is no urgency on either side.

After a certain point, the Trump Administration will roll out the regulations allowing for the RIFing (Reductions In Force) of superfluous government personnel. In this way Trump will be able to cut the federal workforce on a permanent basis.

Looks to be a long Cold War.

 

[cow451]

Sad. Trump’s base would buy anything he did at this point to end the shutdown because he can blame Dems and claim a win. But he’s such a poor negotiator he can’t figure it out.

 

[Vicomte13]

Sad. Trump’s base would buy anything he did at this point to end the shutdown because he can blame Dems and claim a win. But he’s such a poor negotiator he can’t figure it out.

Trump's base is fine if the government stays shutdown forever. They're small government types. They notice that the government's been shutdown for a month with no effect on anything they care about, so they are of the mind "Let's make it PERMANENT!" Trump's not under any real pressure at all to get the government reopen. There are benefits to its closure for him and much of his base.

So if the Left is waiting for Trump to cave, they have fundamentally misread the situation. Trump isn't suffering. He is benefiting from the shutdown, and his base is happy. The longer it goes, the happier they will be.

 

[grasping the after wind]

I don't see how Trump is "breaking the government." What I see is a proud American tradition of Congress refusing to pass bills funding the Executive.

Coupled with the proud American tradition of the Executive refusing to sign bills that doesn't fund what the executive wants. There are no heroes or villains here just politicians that want what they want and refuse to give in. And as you point out the government is hardly broken by this. Not even slightly scratched.

 

[Ringo84]

I'm not sure that's true. Trump is suffering in the sense that his poll numbers have been sinking like a rock since the shutdown began, and a majority of Americans blame him and his party for it. To someone as addicted to attention and love as him, that has to make him miserable

For polling numbers to be that bad, he has to be losing people in his own base. Not good for a president nearing the end of his unfortunate first term.

Plus, a lot of Trump's base are poor people from the south and the midwest. If SNAP benefits start to be endangered because he's too proud and stubborn to take an 'L' and reopen the government, his base will turn on him.
Ringo