Presidential Election Polls

[Jack of Spades]

One hopes, but with recent polls giving trump +4 in Florida

Doesn't look consistently that way, or am I reading this wrong?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html#polls

 

[Goonie]

Doesn't look consistently that way, or am I reading this wrong?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html#polls

Remember the presidency is based on a collegiate vote, you can win the national vote but lose, remember Gore in 2000. It comes down to battleground states such as Florida, nc, Ohio, etc. And Trump is gaining in those.

 

[Jack of Spades]

Remember the presidency is based on a collegiate vote, you can win the national vote but lose, remember Gore in 2000. It comes down to battleground states such as Florida, nc, Ohio, etc. And Trump is gaining in those.

I thought I linked latest Florida polls?

Let's try with Gyazo:

Spoiler: Florida polls

 

[Goonie]

I thought I linked latest Florida polls?

Let's try with Gyazo:

Spoiler: Florida polls

True, I tend to be glass half empty.

 

[Jack of Spades]

True, I tend to be glass half empty.

Well, it's a toss-up really with those polls in Florida.

Here is the current projection from that website based on averages:

Spoiler: Electoral map projection

It can go either way, but it still looks better for Clinton.

 

[Goonie]

Well, it's a toss-up really with those polls in Florida.

Here is the current projection from that website based on averages:

Spoiler: Electoral map projection

It can go either way, but it still looks better for Clinton.

Yep, but if the early voting is correct and Hillary is not getting the young, or African American votes in an election where turnout is higher than last time, it is looking good for Trump. I suspect that Trump will take both Florida and New Hampshire.

 

[Goonie]

I would not be surprised to see Pennsylvania go to Trump as well. Clinton is only polling there within the margin of error, and given the FBIs decision to back Trump I suspect that swing it for him.

 

[Vylo]

One hopes, but with recent polls giving trump +4 in Florida, +7 in n Carolina, last five polls New Hampshire being tied or +5 trump. And early voting saying young and African American voters are staying away. It is all but over for Clinton.

they will vote nov 8.

Trump is toast. 3 days out and hes trailing 5+% combine with the new FBI hooplah backlash, he doesnt stand a chance. He mistimed his october surprise, and even that wouldnt have been enough

 

[Goonie]

they will vote nov 8.

Trump is toast. 3 days out and hes trailing 5+% combine with the new FBI hooplah backlash, he doesnt stand a chance. He mistimed his october surprise, and even that wouldnt have been enough

Not according to realclearpolitics, or 538, Hillary is only ahead by a margin of error 2% and in the battleground states the polls are all over the place.

I do hope Clinton wins, but the polling does not look good.

 

[Jack of Spades]

Not according to realclearpolitics, or 538, Hillary is only ahead by a margin of error 2% and in the battleground states the polls are all over the place.

I do hope Clinton wins, but the polling does not look good.

Yeah the polls are pretty random, but I think the big picture looks certainly better for Clinton than for Trump if there are no more surprises.

Florida early voting seems to favor Clinton narrowly:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

Registered democrats lead early vote count by 7 280 compared to Republicans. That is, out of 5,7 million votes total, and one million of them have been independents... Pretty useless stats there to say anything one way or another, lol.

 

[dogs4thewin]

One hopes, but with recent polls giving trump +4 in Florida, +7 in n Carolina, last five polls New Hampshire being tied or +5 trump. And early voting saying young and African American voters are staying away. It is all but over for Clinton.

Actually Clinton had trouble winning over younger voters this time, and I do know or know of a few blacks who do not support her, either.

 

[dogs4thewin]

True, I tend to be glass half empty.

For me that is half full

 

[Goonie]

For me that is half full

I'd be careful, I did not say what was in the glass

 

[Cearbhall]

Really the only difference now is that she has to win a swing state, whereas before she didn't have to win any.

He mistimed his october surprise, and even that wouldnt have been enough

Access Hollywood made the same mistake. If the tape had come out two weeks later, he would be toast.

 

[Jack of Spades]

Access Hollywood made the same mistake. If the tape had come out two weeks later, he would be toast.

I think they used the tape to tune down the Wikileaks stuff, that was released that very same day the tape came out. I believe they were planning to sit on it longer, had that not happened.

 

[mark46]

Actually Clinton had trouble winning over younger voters this time, and I do know or know of a few blacks who do not support her, either.

You are correct. ONLY 96% of African Americans support Clinton.

 

[Vylo]

I think they used the tape to tune down the Wikileaks stuff, that was released that very same day the tape came out. I believe they were planning to sit on it longer, had that not happened.

yeah it was strategic. I also think they had some doubts about how much impact it would have.

 

[Goonie]

You are correct. ONLY 96% of African Americans support Clinton.

Unfortunately whilst turnout in early voting is up, African American and young voter turnout is down on 2012.

 

[Jack of Spades]

Unfortunately whilst turnout in early voting is up, African American and young voter turnout is down on 2012.

I think I saw a poll that said that Republicans are more likely to vote for Clinton or just vote down ballot, than Dems are likely to do similar. It would make perfect sense if it was that way. So, the early voting stats might look better for R than they should.

Also, I'm counting on women. That's the second biggest demographic group after "citizens"...

 

[Jack of Spades]

Latest Florida poll, CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker poll Florida 45 - 45 tie.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mwbtap4dgs/FL_Prelim_20161106.pdf