Presidential Election Polls

[mark46]

Latest Florida poll, CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker poll Florida 45 - 45 tie.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mwbtap4dgs/FL_Prelim_20161106.pdf

The Dems will win FL. The Hispanic turnout is really amazing. More have ALREADY voted than did in 2012.

 

[Vylo]

Clinton leads by 5.2% nationally, and 317 EVs as of this post, 41 hours before the first polls close.

 

[dogs4thewin]

The Dems will win FL. The Hispanic turnout is really amazing. More have ALREADY voted than did in 2012.

How do we know which party they are casting the ballot for. I know many Hispanics like some of Trump's ideas on illegals.

 

[mark46]

How do we know which party they are casting the ballot for. I know many Hispanics like some of Trump's ideas on illegals.

You can choose to not believe polls. Latest polling shows Clinton with a 45% lead among Hispanics. Older Cubans are the only subgroup where that is not the case.

 

[Vylo]

the second to last EV polling has Clinton still at 317 EVs

 

[mark46]

The final FOX poll just came out. Hillary by 4% nationwide. The move has independents moving from the Johnson and Stein to Clinton. Everyone knew that the 3rd party votes would all but disappear. The question was where they would break. We have found out.

Polls have said for months that Trump's ceiling was 43-45%. And so it will be.

 

[Goonie]

The most recent state polls have Trump leading in Florida, pennsylvania and Michigan.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Admittedly one poll, but the most recent before the election.

 

[Jack of Spades]

The most recent state polls have Trump leading in Florida, pennsylvania and Michigan.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Admittedly one poll, but the most recent before the election.

If you look at the past Florida results, the same poll has had Trump higher than average before. Not saying that poll is wrong, but appears to be more of a consistent Trump-up poll, than a sign of a voter shift.

In other words, either Trump has been ahead all along, or he isn't. But he just didn't jump up.

 

[Vylo]

Final huffpost prediction based on aggregate of polls is 323 EV for Clinton, 98.2% chance of victory.

Will have electoral-votes prediction when I get home from voting in the morning.

 

[mark46]

Final huffpost prediction based on aggregate of polls is 323 EV for Clinton, 98.2% chance of victory.

Will have electoral-votes prediction when I get home from voting in the morning.

I have 322 on my map. I guess that they have Clinton winning one of the Nebraska congressional districts.

 

[Vylo]

I have 322 on my map. I guess that they have Clinton winning one of the Nebraska congressional districts.

Yeah, should be interesting to see what EV comes up with, since they said they would include internet polls, which The_Donald has been brigading.

 

[Vylo]

electoral vote is predicting Clinton to win with 323 EVs, with 288 in the bag, Florida and nevada are close, but she shouldnt even need them. Now we await the results

 

[Goonie]

I hate being right.

 

[Jack of Spades]

I hate being right.

I concede, I questioned your pessimism earlier. I shouldn't have done that.

 

[Goonie]

I concede, I questioned your pessimism earlier. I shouldn't have done that.

The annoying thing is I was right over the last election and EU referendum.

 

[Vylo]

all our predictions can be found here:

 

[cow451]

The annoying thing is I was right over the last election and EU referendum.

When I am wrong I freely admit it. I whiffed.

 

[Jeffwhosoever]

I entered the WSJ contest for electoral votes and specific states and while I didn't get the states all correct (Wisconsin was not on my list for Trump), I did come up with 305 electoral votes for Trump. Looks to me that I will wind up off by 1 electoral vote and Trump will get 306 once the counting is done.

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Final huffpost prediction based on aggregate of polls is 323 EV for Clinton, 98.2% chance of victory.

The polls --
that was interesting watching that 98.2% chance of victory fall.
M-Bob

 

[FredVB]

There is the problem that we don't really have elections by popular vote here in America. This is why polling can't really reliably show how the election would turn out. Why do we have to have the electorate vote instead? It is not more democratic, and with it, it is just not true that every vote counts, we can know they don't all count. Isn't it time to do away with the electorate system? Can't we call for that?

Donald Trump is now going to be the president here. We can accept that in this country, for our unity continuing, but he has wild ideas and some things that would come about from him that are harmful to the world here, we don't have to just accept all of that and can work against those things in legal and justified ways.