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Presidential Election Polls

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by Sojourner1, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. cow451

    cow451 Shaken, Not Stirred Supporter

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    The EV system has been good to the GOP as evidenced by 2001 and 2016. I'm not ready to advocate for abolishment, however.
     
  2. dogs4thewin

    dogs4thewin dog lover Supporter CF Ambassadors

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    I wish they would instead do it like NE and ME already do have two statewide votes and then each district assign a vote.
     
  3. FredVB

    FredVB Regular Member

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    That may be good enough for you, but it isn't fair democracy (really, when it benefits just one political party and not based on its merits!), and so should be abandoned in favor of real democracy, for democracy's sake, with every vote counting, and that must come then.
     
  4. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    Why do you believe that national polling is more accurate that state polling? Polling error had to do with turnout numbers in WI, MI and PA. Rural whites turned out in higher numbers than expected. Blacks turned out in lower numbers. An additional error was in the estimate of the education of the voters. More non-college educated voted than was forecast.

    But, yes, popular vote would have elected Clinton. MILLIONS more would have voted in NY, MA and on the West Coast, more than would have voted in the Republican cities.
     
  5. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    I would note that this is a state choice. There is a federal issue only if the states discriminate in their determination of congressional districts, which of course they do, and have been successfully challenged very infrequently.

    Of course, this choice would indeed increase participation. The contest between getting folks out to vote in NY vs CA would be impressive.
     
  6. Radrook

    Radrook Well-Known Member

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    Which goes to show that unlike the AA community which pulls as one when politics is concerned, the Hispanic community for all its vaunted growing numbers, is totally fragmented, doesn't have one common mind about issues-doesn't really know who or what its real friends and enemies are and is therefore not one monolithic political threat to any particular party. In short, it drastically waters down its own potential influence via disagreements and lack of a clear political focus.
     
  7. cow451

    cow451 Shaken, Not Stirred Supporter

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    IOW, they don't all look alike.
     
  8. Radrook

    Radrook Well-Known Member

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    They don't have to look alike to have similar opinions about Latinos.
     
  9. lee-johnson

    lee-johnson New Member

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    I wonder how much mis-belief went into the campaign? Would you agree that false campaigning constitutes (both) a sin (and a crime).

    Sent from my SM-N910C using Tapatalk
     
  10. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    What is false campaigning?

    The answers are no and no.
     
  11. lee-johnson

    lee-johnson New Member

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    Towing the political line might constitute falsity, esp. if your beliefs are different from the Senate. Also, there's the false belief held by others that policy proposed and endorsed shall be delivered quite as they were made to believe it e.g. contextual media. Does a campaign have a legal duty to ensure that differing beliefs amongst constituants are well understood or is towing the lie acceptable?

    Sent from my SM-N910C using Tapatalk
     
  12. JohnHarthover

    JohnHarthover Active Member

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  13. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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  14. FredVB

    FredVB Regular Member

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    This is definite for what is current.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    Here it shows how low Donald Trump's approval as president really is now.

    55.8% Disapprove, 38.3% Approve.
     
  15. RDKirk

    RDKirk Alien, Pilgrim, and Sojourner Supporter

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    No. Political parties can be what they want to be, decide who they want to run however the want to decide it. They can choose a candidate by a cage match fight if they want to.
     
  16. RDKirk

    RDKirk Alien, Pilgrim, and Sojourner Supporter

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    I've seen some interviews with Latinos who voted for Trump but have been hit by unexpected negative consequences in his immigration policies. These Latinos always say, "We're good people. We work hard. We pay taxes. We didn't think it would include us."

    The difference there is that we black people of any economic level do presume that "we all look alike" to people like Donald Trump. We have an old cynical joke we keep in mind: "You may be a black doctor, you may be a black lawyer, you may be the first black mayor of the city, but when the cop says, 'All you n----- get out of the car!' he does mean you."

    In fact, black people interpret this entire Mexican immigration issue in terms of racial attitudes that are only directed towards Mexicans at the moment. If someone says, "I only mean Mexicans," we say, "Yeah...at the moment, but tomorrow you'll mean us."
     
  17. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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  18. tulc

    tulc loves "SO'S YER MOM!! posts!

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  19. Rion

    Rion "Trigger Warning" is one of my triggers Supporter

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    Which polls got the election more or less correct? Those would be the ones to pay attention to, if you're going to pay attention to any at all.
     
  20. tulc

    tulc loves "SO'S YER MOM!! posts!

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    I guess it would depend on your definition of "correct" wouldn't it? I personally think polls aren't worth anything because one minute later, one question asked differently and a whole host of other things and the poll results are totally different. :wave:
    tulc(so "polls being correct" is sort of subjective) ;)
     
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