Presidential Election Polls

[Cearbhall]

Alaska is getting interesting.

 

[mark46]

Polls averaging +7.8% in favor of Clinton. Trump is going to have to win oct 19 in a blowout to have even a remote chance at this.

Debates rarely have any effect.

Having a chance is all about turnout. There are 3 components.

1) Trump has doubled down in order to get a large percentage of his deplorables (a phrase that will last for decades) to the polls.

2) Non-Trump Republicans must choose to vote for Trump in large numbers in an effort to keep Clinton out of the White House.

3) The most important key to an unlikely Trump victory is for Democrats and Independents (especially the young) to be so turned off by the process that they stay home or vote third party.

 

[wing2000]

...Trump could very well loose the state that many believe "inspired" his immigration polices. btw, Arpaio is loosing too.


Democrat Hillary Clinton now holds a five-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race in Arizona, though more than 20 percent of the state’s likely voters say they are undecided, according to the latest Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News Poll.

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-clinton-leads-trump-election/

 

[mark46]

...Trump could very well loose the state that many believe "inspired" his immigration polices. btw, Arpaio is loosing too.


Democrat Hillary Clinton now holds a five-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race in Arizona, though more than 20 percent of the state’s likely voters say they are undecided, according to the latest Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News Poll.

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-clinton-leads-trump-election/

Arizona could certainly go Democratic, even in a close election. In that area, Nevada was thought to be solidly Democratic; it is now a toss-up. Arizona is more likely to go Democratic than Nevada.

Clinton's campaign has lots of money. There will be a considerable emphasis on Arizona. This may cost McCain his Senate seat.

 

[Cearbhall]

The newest Emerson College poll shows McMullin ahead of Trump in Utah. I hope he gets it.

 

[mark46]

The newest Emerson College poll shows McMullin ahead of Trump in Utah. I hope he gets it.

Yes, I hope so also.

However, in the end, straight party voting tends to greatly reduce 3rd party candidates votes compared to polling results.

 

[cow451]

Here's my Electoral Prediction:
Clinton: 311
Trump: 227
McMullin loses out to last minute GOP voters "coming home". And Johnson's chances went up in smoke *wink* a good while back.

 

[Vylo]

Clinton's national lead has been shaved to 5.5%, likely due to the FBI thing, though it is unlikely to have much impact on election day.

EV has her sitting on 317. Florida is critical. If Trump loses it, he loses the election, barring an act of congress that would have riots in the streets.

 

[Goonie]

Clinton's national lead has been shaved to 5.5%, likely due to the FBI thing, though it is unlikely to have much impact on election day.

EV has her sitting on 317. Florida is critical. If Trump loses it, he loses the election, barring an act of congress that would have riots in the streets.

Interesting realclearpolitics has her just 1.7 POints ahead. With her support falling badly in battleground states, one poll in New Hampshire has trump +5 for example.

 

[cow451]

Interesting realclearpolitics has her just 1.7 POints ahead. With her support falling badly in battleground states, one poll in New Hampshire has trump +5 for example.

If Trump wins NC and New Hampshire along with Florida, it will be a long night. Might be anyway if the battlegrounds are close. If Clinton wins NC, it's bedtime.

That said, historically, the various media tend to overhype the closeness just before election day. I remember that Carter and Reagan were supposed to be tight, but the networks were calling it for Reagan by 7:30 p.m.

 

[Goonie]

If Trump wins NC and New Hampshire along with Florida, it will be a long night. Might be anyway if the battlegrounds are close. If Clinton wins NC, it's bedtime.

That said, historically, the various media tend to overhype the closeness just before election day. I remember that Carter and Reagan were supposed to be tight, but the networks were calling it for Reagan by 7:30 p.m.

Well it's a tie in North Carolina, Florida is leaning Trump, with the the FBI leaking in support of Trump, a Trump presidency is looking inevitable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump

 

[Vylo]

There are some good articles on the elasticity of the polls this round. Every time bad news comes out about one of the candidates, their polls dip, but then return to a norm. This normal is Trump in the low 40s and Clinton in the high 40s. If this holds true through election day, Clinton will win a clear majority of the popular vote, and win with a sizable 300-330 EVs. Basically Trump has to hope for a miracle in Florida, since the hurricane failed. There is a possibility that a transit strike in philly could give him Pennsi, but I doubt the DNC will stand by and let that happen.

 

[cow451]

Well it's a tie in North Carolina, Florida is leaning Trump, with the the FBI leaking in support of Trump, a Trump presidency is looking inevitable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump

That assumes Trump runs the Battleground table.

 

[Goonie]

That assumes Trump runs the Battleground table.

True, but early voting of which 33 million have already been cast is showing low turnout amongst the young and African-Americans, with republican votes surpassing 2012.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ald-trump-hillary-clinton-battleground-states

The writing is on the wall.

 

[cow451]

True, but early voting of which 33 million have already been cast is showing low turnout amongst the young and African-Americans, with republican votes surpassing 2012.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ald-trump-hillary-clinton-battleground-states

The writing is on the wall.

And Mexico is going to pay for it. Sorry. Could not resist.

 

[Vylo]

True, but early voting of which 33 million have already been cast is showing low turnout amongst the young and African-Americans, with republican votes surpassing 2012.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ald-trump-hillary-clinton-battleground-states

The writing is on the wall.

Demographics are very difficult for Trump to overcome. Clinton needs to pick up florida, and florida alone to tie the EVs along with the blue wall. if any other state goes to her after that, its over. Trump needs to pick up all but 2-3 swing states to pull off a victory. That's a very very tall order.

 

[mark46]

Well it's a tie in North Carolina, Florida is leaning Trump, with the the FBI leaking in support of Trump, a Trump presidency is looking inevitable.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump

It is NOT inevitable that Trump will take all the toss up states: FL, NC, OH, NV and NH. Even this gives him a tie, winning by winning one electoral vote in Maine. Ohio is probably NOT a tossup state at this point.

BTW, in this map, Clinton wins in CO, PA, and WI.

 

[Vylo]

actually, I rememberes the number wrong, the blue wall is 242 EVs not 240, so florida alone would give Clinton the election, not a tie.

 

[Vylo]

The polls, both 2 and 3 way, keep arriving at 5.5% Clinton recently. I'm starting to think this is what we will see on election day, minus 1-2% from Johnson.

 

[Goonie]

The polls, both 2 and 3 way, keep arriving at 5.5% Clinton recently. I'm starting to think this is what we will see on election day, minus 1-2% from Johnson.

One hopes, but with recent polls giving trump +4 in Florida, +7 in n Carolina, last five polls New Hampshire being tied or +5 trump. And early voting saying young and African American voters are staying away. It is all but over for Clinton.