Presidential Election Polls

[Cearbhall]

Almost all of them have the race in single digits and the NBC poll is among only a handful that had it out of that range.

Agreed. Popular vote projection is 49% to 43%, though that means little in our system. Poll-based electoral college is 270 to 161 with 107 too close to call. Electoral college projection is 334 to 204. Trump's odds of winning: 17%.

This election: priceless.

 

[cow451]

Agreed. Popular vote projection is 49% to 43%, though that means little in our system. Poll-based electoral college is 270 to 161 with 107 too close to call. Electoral college projection is 334 to 204. Trump's odds of winning: 17%.

This election: priceless.

The undecided crowd seems to be moving away from Trump. But Hillary is great at blowing a lead, so she could always have a seizure or sudden outbreak of eczema at the final debate or be felled by swarming flies or something. No lead is ever safe with Hillary.

 

[cow451]

Here's an eye-opener for Utah (six electoral votes). Third party conservative McMullin within striking distance:

 

[mark46]

The "Utah strategy" was to end up with a tie in the electoral college, with Utah to a 3rd party, and throw the election into the House.

Here's an eye-opener for Utah (six electoral votes). Third party conservative McMullin within striking distance:

 

[cow451]

The "Utah strategy" was to end up with a tie in the electoral college, with Utah to a 3rd party, and throw the election into the House.

Given Trump's popularity among Republican Congress members, that strategy is more iffy than ever.

 

[Albion]

The "Utah strategy" was to end up with a tie in the electoral college, with Utah to a 3rd party, and throw the election into the House.

Hi, Mark!

 

[mark46]

Hi, Mark!

and hi to you!

 

[mark46]

Trump's numbers should come down as more and more beauty pageant contestants make their statements with regard to Trump's comments and his walking into their dressing rooms. Such activity at Teen America pageants won't play well in Utah. When seeing children in his various states of undress, Trump said that he'd seen it all before, so they shouldn't be bothered with his presence.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-b...ed-into-pageant-dressing-rooms-160035885.html

Here's an eye-opener for Utah (six electoral votes). Third party conservative McMullin within striking distance:

 

[Albion]

Trump's numbers should come down as more and more beauty pageant contestants make their statements with regard to Trump's comments and his walking into their dressing rooms. Such activity at Teen America pageants won't play well in Utah. When seeing children in his various states of undress, Trump said that he'd seen it all before, so they shouldn't be bothered with his presence.

I tend to agree that the Clinton staff must have compiled a number of "revelations" that will be released, one after another, to the eager news outlets that take their orders from the campaign. It will be amazing if they used up all their ammo with that one thing that the Bush family had been holding onto since Jeb! was humiliated by Trump in the early primaries.

On the other hand, I also think Trump is doing the right thing by not waiting for such releases but is fighting back daily now by speaking of the many instances of corruption that apply to Hillary and Bill.

Whether it will work, I don't know, but I have a hunch that, in the end, the voters will just mentally throw up their hands on the "Who's the most immoral?" issue and instead make their decision on some other basis.

 

[cow451]

I tend to agree that the Clinton staff must have compiled a number of "revelations" that will be released, one after another, to the eager news outlets that take their orders from the campaign. It will be amazing if they used up all their ammo with that one thing that the Bush family had been holding onto since Jeb! was humiliated by Trump in the early primaries.

On the other hand, I also think Trump is doing the right thing by not waiting for such releases but is fighting back daily now by speaking of the many instances of corruption that apply to Hillary and Bill.

Whether it will work, I don't know, but I have a hunch that, in the end, the voters will just mentally throw up their hands on the "Who's the most immoral?" issue and instead make their decision on some other basis.

The historically reliable Fivethirtyeight sees Trump virtually dead in the water. However, races can get close at the end, but Trump would have to have another Clinton debacle and Wikileaks doesn't have enough to overcome Trump's implosion.

Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically unprecedented.

 

[mark46]

I have seen many corrupt politicians elected over the decades.

I cannot imagine Trump being elected after the tapes of this weekend. Trump was proud that he (as a star) was able to kiss and touch the genitals of women, although he never did such, just that he bragged about being able to do so. The Howard Stern tape showed him as being proud of going backstage at beauty pageants and gawking at the naked women, and teens. As Miss Arizona indicated, the women were asked to fawn over the boss.

The press has had the statements of women (including the two of today) for many months (since May). One of the women agreed to speak after Trump's denial in the second debate. There will be many more, being released by the campaigns and the press.

I tend to agree that the Clinton staff must have compiled a number of "revelations" that will be released, one after another, to the eager news outlets that take their orders from the campaign. It will be amazing if they used up all their ammo with that one thing that the Bush family had been holding onto since Jeb! was humiliated by Trump in the early primaries.

On the other hand, I also think Trump is doing the right thing by not waiting for such releases but is fighting back daily now by speaking of the many instances of corruption that apply to Hillary and Bill.

Whether it will work, I don't know, but I have a hunch that, in the end, the voters will just mentally throw up their hands on the "Who's the most immoral?" issue and instead make their decision on some other basis.

 

[Albion]

I have seen many corrupt politicians elected over the decades.

I cannot imagine Trump being elected after the tapes of this weekend. Trump was proud that he (as a star) was able to kiss and touch the genitals of women, although he never did such, just that he bragged about being able to do so. The Howard Stern tape showed him as being proud of going backstage at beauty pageants and gawking at the naked women, and teens. As Miss Arizona indicated, the women were asked to fawn over the boss.

I know. I know. And I think Clinton will probably win, because of demographics if nothing else. But on the other hand, the Democrats worked their strategy very well last time around and I'm sure it will work this time, and that we'll see it again in 2020, no matter who the Republican candidate is.

I am referring to the twin setups: claim the candidate didn't pay taxes and then trot out some women to claim to have been "inappropriately" something-or-other sexual. After the election is over, the party leaders can even admit to having made it all up, but no one will remember four years afterwards. And you notice that the three woman from Chicago who miraculously all appeared at once to accuse Herman Cain of something heinous all disappeared the day he dropped his candidacy and were never heard from again and never pressed any charges.

So, sure. I'm watching it play out again, right on schedule, and I figure the voters will fall for it again.

 

[cow451]

I know. I know. And I think Clinton will probably win, because of demographics if nothing else. But on the other hand, the Democrats worked their strategy very well last time around and I'm sure it will work this time, and that we'll see it again in 2020, no matter who the Republican candidate is.

I am referring to the twin setups: claim the candidate didn't pay taxes and then trot out some women to claim to have been "inappropriately" something-or-other sexual. After the election is over, the party leaders can even admit to having made it all up, but no one will remember four years afterwards. And you notice that the three woman from Chicago who miraculously all appeared at once to accuse Herman Cain of something heinous all disappeared the day he dropped his candidacy and were never heard from again and never pressed any charges.

So, sure. I'm watching it play out again, right on schedule, and I figure the voters will fall for it again.

This begs the question as to why the GOP base continues to be so stupid. I think the demise of the GOP is greatly exaggerated. They may take a licking this year, but they can turn it around. Look at what the losing side did after 1964, 1972, 1976 and other election cycles. Assuming Clinton wins, it may be the best thing that could happen to the GOP in the long run.

 

[Albion]

The historically reliable Fivethirtyeight sees Trump virtually dead in the water.

On the other hand, the most reliable of polling organizations reports today that Trump has regained the lead and that Hillary, after an uptick a few days back, lost ground yesterday and also the day before.

 

[cow451]

On the other hand, the most reliable of polling organizations reports today that Trump has regained the lead and that Hillary, after an uptick a few days back, lost ground yesterday and also the day before.

And the "most reliable" is.........? If you say Rassmussen, you will lose all credibility.

 

[Vylo]

Polls averaging +7.8% in favor of Clinton. Trump is going to have to win oct 19 in a blowout to have even a remote chance at this.

 

[Vylo]

Polls now average 8.4% Clinton. Looks like those tapes combined with the allegations have sunk Trump's presidential bid.

 

[cow451]

Polls now average 8.4% Clinton. Looks like those tapes combined with the allegations have sunk Trump's presidential bid.

And the moron keeps putting oxygen into the topic. I truly think he knows he's toast and is trying to do as much damage as possible on the way down.

 

[Vylo]

And the moron keeps putting oxygen into the topic. I truly think he knows he's toast and is trying to do as much damage as possible on the way down.

Trump is pretty vindictive. I bet he makes his own network and goes on a revenge spree.

 

[cow451]

Trump is pretty vindictive. I bet he makes his own network and goes on a revenge spree.