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Presidential Election Polls

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by Sojourner1, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    You really should post sources when you argue with published numbers. See the attached for the latest polls by 8 sources. the average is under 40%; the highest is 45%. None are high as the 46% you posted.

    RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Trump Job Approval
     
  2. RDKirk

    RDKirk Alien, Pilgrim, and Sojourner Supporter

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    The problem there was not the numbers but their interpretation.

    All the polls showed a clear trend of Trump closing the gap very rapidly. The final polls showed the gap within or very close to their margins of error--Trump was clearly in "field goal range" of winning the election. That's what the numbers showed.

    It was only very poor (hopeful?) interpretation that it wasn't called a "toss up."
     
  3. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps.

    When you are discussing the election polls, are you referring to national popular vote, that Trump didn't win.

    The was no real "poll" of electoral votes. However, there were percentage estimates of how likely it was for Trump to win the electoral vote. There was only one (as I recall) source that had the electoral college as close; that is, all had Trump likely to lose the electoral college by numerous outside of the margin for error.

    Yes, Trump was closing fast in key states. Analysts should have paid more attention to this. In the end, as almost always in presidential elections, the difference was about turnout. In PA, blacks in Philly didn't show up. Those not living in Philly or Pittsburgh showed up in large numbers.
     
  4. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Real Clear Politics, which was used in the post that I replied to, is a composite or average of all polls, the good as well as the bad, so that doesn't strike me as particularly meaningful.
     
  5. Rion

    Rion "Trigger Warning" is one of my triggers Supporter

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    Hence why I said if you were going to pay attention at all.
     
  6. tulc

    tulc loves "SO'S YER MOM!! posts!

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    agreed. :)
    tulc(likes to find things to agree with others) :wave:
     
  7. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    ???

    Real Clear Politics lists the results of all the individual polls, in addition to the average.

    Trump's poll numbers have gone down between 9 and 23 points depending on the poll (15% on average).

    The historical information is also included, if you wish to do your own analysis.

    Even FOXNews has trump down 13 points, to 40 from 53.

    RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Trump Job Approval

    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread

    RCP Average 5/21 - 6/13 -- 39.4 54.8 -15.4

    Gallup 6/11 - 6/13 1500 A 36 59 -23
    Rasmussen Reports 6/11 - 6/13 1500 LV 45 55 -10
    Economist/YouGov 6/11 - 6/13 1310 RV 42 51 -9
    Reuters/Ipsos 6/9 - 6/13 1492 A 40 56 -16
    PPP (D) 6/9 - 6/11 811 RV 41 52 -11
    Quinnipiac 5/31 - 6/6 1361 RV 34 57 -23
    IBD/TIPP 5/30 - 6/6 903 A 37 55 -18
    FOX News 5/21 - 5/23 1011 RV 40 53 -13
    All President Trump Job Approval Polling Data
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
  8. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    And when was the last time (before your post now) that all the results were listed by the poster? Well, never or close to it.

    Instead, it's always "Trump's popularity is down to 36%" or whatever. So...I don't have much interest in disinformation.
     
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  9. FredVB

    FredVB Regular Member

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    It was, apparently, my post that was replied to though, which didn't use Real Clear Politics. I don't see the basis to not trust the various polls put together, and why would some be bad but the poll you pick not be a bad poll?

    There is apparently a choice to make with being a Trump supporter, with which other contrary things are "fake news". But I see likely reasons for the decrease in approval of President Trump. He is not showing himself to be such an honest and trustworthy person for the job, which calls for more transparency, among a number of other things. It is not hard to find great discrepancies.

    Trump acknowledges climate change — at his golf course
     
  10. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Because a few bad polls can make the overall report appear to be other than the real situation is. For example, if one has the margin of victory at 15%, another at 5%, and a third at 5%, what's the composite show? It shows a victory approaching landslide proportions, but the truth is that, if something is amiss with the 15% poll, the result showing is only a couple of points outside the margin of error.
     
  11. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    A better method is to look at 7-9 top polls, eliminate the top and bottom, and then look at the average. Or, eliminate the top and the bottom, a look at the range.

    Either of these methods would find Trump's support in the 30's.
     
  12. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    It is relatively easy for us to get trends and results right after the fact.

    Folks doing and interpreting all the polls but one had Clinton winning. All but one who estimated the probability of winning had here as a huge favorite (75% or more).

    In the end, what mattered was the turnout of various groups in PA, MI and WI. Hillary's campaign choices in the last week made the difference with regard to a lot of these voters. The huge Beyonce concert to show who her voters were didn't help with rural voters. A lot of Bernie's youngsters just didn't come out to vote. The vote was very close in all of these states.

    What the pollsters got wrong is the turnout in various groups.

    And yes, many folks warned Hillary (for many months) that the working class vote in the Mid-West was critical, and that she needed to campaign there. Hillary simply wouldn't listen to the unions there, to her husband or to Obama. Considering just how good her husband and Obama were at winning, one would think that she and her team would have had a bit more respect for their advice.

    And yes, it strange, but likely true that if had held her final concert had been held in Madison WI and had included primarily country singers, she likely would have won.
     
  13. RDKirk

    RDKirk Alien, Pilgrim, and Sojourner Supporter

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    Well, I personally realized all that prior to the election. I saw the trend and understood the warnings about those key states that she was not heeding. Clinton was in full feminism-driven hubris mode.

    As I was taught: "Never fall in love with your own hypothesis. The hypothesis you love may fit the facts, but apply the facts to all possible hypotheses to determine the one that fits the facts best."
     
  14. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    If you were a betting man, you could have made a lot money.

    With regard to feminism, if she had gotten young women to come out to vote in greater numbers, she would have won easily. Many of these voters voted for Stein or stayed home.
    ====

    But yes, the perfect storm was there for all to see. Trump was indeed a huge long shot with 3 weeks to go. However, the combination of Cuomy, the Obamacare increases, and Hillary's many campaign mistakes gave Trump the win. Trump needed to do nothing but continue to have people disgusted with politics, and appeal to the rural voters who rallied behind his empty rhetoric.

    She had a big push in Arizona and victory party of very left liberals in PA. This alone showed just how out of touch she was and is. Everyone said that 35+% of loyal supporters plus some Republican diehards wasn't enough. Hillary made that be enough.
     
  15. RDKirk

    RDKirk Alien, Pilgrim, and Sojourner Supporter

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    She was an old-era feminist. Millennial women--who saw their interests as different from purely gender-oriented--tended toward Sanders and outright told her that her "gender traitor" campaign rhetoric wasn't going to win them over.
     
  16. FredVB

    FredVB Regular Member

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    The point is still that it can be seen Donald Trump's approval rating is low, the polls show it, and none were as high as you were claiming that it actually was. And it is a claim that a poll is bad without it shown that such particular poll actually is.
     
  17. Rion

    Rion "Trigger Warning" is one of my triggers Supporter

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  18. FredVB

    FredVB Regular Member

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    And who is it benefiting from Trump's changes since in office? Which group of people benefit? If any are said to benefit for their pursuits, it is large industries or businesses with those who own them or run them who get priority over others and the environments which lose out and the steps to diminish serious climate change, which then will bring distasterous results for future generations.
     
  19. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member

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    Please list ANY changes that are effective now. Then, we might comment on who benefited.

     
  20. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Its been a while since you wrote the above, but generalizations like that or the more recent claims about people being benefitted by unnamed changes do make any discussion difficult to sustain, as Mark indicated.
     
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