If Russia invades the Ukraine...

[mindlight]

I doubt Ukraine will allow Russia to conquer as much territory as it can and then, when it has exausted itself, to allow peace talks.

In the long term, Russia will lose this and be pushed out of Ukraine, including Donbass and Crimea. I hope they take their sympathizers with them and maybe send back the million ukranians they abducted in return.

I am not sure if a broken and defeated Russia is actually better than one than gets territories it pretty much already controls already and then a clear message that the borders are guaranteed by NATO from now on.

Also practically speaking I am not sure that a Ukrainian victory is at all inevitable even with the resources that the USA and Europe are prepared to devote to this. Given the price that Putin is prepared to pay in Russian soldiers' lives, it seems more likely that eventually, he will secure the lands closest to Russia where rubbish Russian logistics are not a factor. So it seems more likely that Russia will eventually take the Donbas and the South and that then the war will become one of grinding attrition. Eventually, the casualties on both sides will force a peace agreement which will probably be a compromise.

Also the longer this goes on the more final is the break between Russia and the West. Then what happens to the country behind the new Iron curtain? It becomes a dangerous new ally of China, perhaps also trading with India and Iran and as deeply anti-western as it is possible to be.

 

[mindlight]

I see.

Our birds have to catch their own sunflower oil.

We are breeding a new kind of bird though, fat ones! They also eat mosquitoes for us in Summer but leave the bees unharmed.

 

[Nithavela]

I am not sure if a broken and defeated Russia is actually better than one than gets territories it pretty much already controls already and then a clear message that the borders are guaranteed by NATO from now on.

Also practically speaking I am not sure that a Ukrainian victory is at all inevitable even with the resources that the USA and Europe are prepared to devote to this. Given the price that Putin is prepared to pay in Russian soldiers' lives, it seems more likely that eventually, he will secure the lands closest to Russia where rubbish Russian logistics are not a factor. So it seems more likely that Russia will eventually take the Donbas and the South and that then the war will become one of grinding attrition. Eventually, the casualties on both sides will force a peace agreement which will probably be a compromise.

Also the longer this goes on the more final is the break between Russia and the West. Then what happens to the country behind the new Iron curtain? It becomes a dangerous new ally of China, perhaps also trading with India and Iran and as deeply anti-western as it is possible to be.

I am afraid you are thinking to practical and logical.

War isn't practical and logical. It's about gut feelings, impulses and hurt sensibilities. It's about the outrage over thousands of ukranian children being abducted and dispersed inside the russian federation, about people being shot in the streets of Butcha, about the bombed clinics and theatres of Mariopol.

The Ukraine will not relent and sit down to get the rational best deal they can get, be that your much touted splitting of the ukraine along the central river or something different. They're not going to be satisfied with anything except the restoration of their borders (including the donbass region and likely also crimea).

This war will not be decided by a logical cost and reward analysis, but by how much earth the soldiers hold when one side finally gives way.

 

[mindlight]

I am afraid you are thinking to practical and logical.

War isn't practical and logical. It's about gut feelings, impulses and hurt sensibilities. It's about the outrage over thousands of ukranian children being abducted and dispersed inside the russian federation, about people being shot in the streets of Butcha, about the bombed clinics and theatres of Mariopol.

The Ukraine will not relent and sit down to get the rational best deal they can get, be that your much touted splitting of the ukraine along the central river or something different. They're not going to be satisfied with anything except the restoration of their borders (including the donbass region and likely also crimea).

This war will not be decided by a logical cost and reward analysis, but by how much earth the soldiers hold when one side finally gives way.

At some point the cost of the original vision of victory becomes too high for either side. It is a question of how many lives until then? Maybe this will go down to the wire and millions dead, I certainly hope not. Maybe the number of people Putin is willing to sacrifice is higher than Zelenskys.

 

[Nithavela]

At some point the cost of the original vision of victory becomes too high for either side. It is a question of how many lives until then? Maybe this will go down to the wire and millions dead, I certainly hope not. Maybe the number of people Putin is willing to sacrifice is higher than Zelenskys.

I think the Ukranians are very willing to sacrifice a lot more. Zelensky is just representing that will, in contrast to Putin, who is only representing his own deluded ambitions.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

War isn't practical and logical. It's about gut feelings, impulses and hurt sensibilities. It's about the outrage over thousands of ukranian children being abducted and dispersed inside the russian federation, about people being shot in the streets of Butcha, about the bombed clinics and theatres of Mariopol.

War is an extension of politics, and it's as rational as the politics behind it.

The Ukraine will not relent and sit down to get the rational best deal they can get, be that your much touted splitting of the ukraine along the central river or something different. They're not going to be satisfied with anything except the restoration of their borders (including the donbass region and likely also crimea).

Who says they going to be satisfied? They want it both ways: pre-Maidan borders under a post-Maidan government. The events of 2014 have already shown that this isn't realistic, and the longer Kiev pretends otherwise the more Ukrainians are going to get killed. If they couldn't take Donbass in 2014 when the Russian army wasn't there, how are they going to pull it off when it is there? Russia sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donestk and Luhansk People's Republics have been reality for eight years, and they can't just be wished away. The local populations certainly won't stand for it. They can't claim self-determination for themselves (whatever self-determination they would even have under the US hegemony) while denying it to the people of the Crimea and Donbas. All recent events show that it just won't work.

The Russians have already begun to consolidate the land they've gained this year. The ruble has been introduced as the currency of these occupied territories. The United Russia Party has set up an office in Mariupol. Once the new de facto borders solidify, all the outrage in the world is not going to reverse the new political reality and get a devastated, war-torn country it's lost territory back. They can claim their pre-2014 borders. They might as well claim the moon while they're at it. They have no means of getting them.

Maybe the number of people Putin is willing to sacrifice is higher than Zelenskys.

Putin has more to sacrifice than Zelensky does, that's for sure.

 

[Nithavela]

War is an extension of politics, and it's as rational as the politics behind it.



Who says they going to be satisfied? They want it both ways: pre-Maidan borders under a post-Maidan government. The events of 2014 have already shown that this isn't realistic, and the longer Kiev pretends otherwise the more Ukrainians are going to get killed. If they couldn't take Donbass in 2014 when the Russian army wasn't there, how are they going to pull it off when it is there? Russia sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donestk and Luhansk People's Republics have been reality for eight years, and they can't just be wished away. The local populations certainly won't stand for it. They can't claim self-determination for themselves (whatever self-determination they would even have under the US hegemony) while denying it to the people of the Crimea and Donbas. All recent events show that it just won't work.

The Russians have already begun to consolidate the land they've gained this year. The ruble has been introduced as the currency of these occupied territories. The United Russia Party has set up an office in Mariupol. Once the new de facto borders solidify, all the outrage in the world is not going to reverse the new political reality and get a devastated, war-torn country it's lost territory back. They can claim their pre-2014 borders. They might as well claim the moon while they're at it. They have no means of getting them.



Putin has more to sacrifice than Zelensky does, that's for sure.

It's nice to see that you've finally made the step from echoing russian propaganda of this just being a peacefull special operation to the right of conquest.

 

[mindlight]

War is an extension of politics, and it's as rational as the politics behind it.

Detaching ourselves from the rage engendered by war crimes such as the massacre of civilians and of prisoners of war is essential to finding a way toward peace.

Who says they going to be satisfied? They want it both ways: pre-Maidan borders under a post-Maidan government. The events of 2014 have already shown that this isn't realistic, and the longer Kiev pretends otherwise the more Ukrainians are going to get killed. If they couldn't take Donbass in 2014 when the Russian army wasn't there, how are they going to pull it off when it is there? Russia sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donestk and Luhansk People's Republics have been reality for eight years, and they can't just be wished away. The local populations certainly won't stand for it. They can't claim self-determination for themselves (whatever self-determination they would even have under the US hegemony) while denying it to the people of the Crimea and Donbas. All recent events show that it just won't work.

I actually agree with this point as I did 7 years ago when we discussed the possibility of a divided Ukraine as the best way to resolve the clash of worldviews implicit in its internal turmoil. But while the East of the Donbas was secured as a part of the Russian cultural vision large parts of the West of it never were. Mariupol has only been secured by extreme violence and turning the city into a rubble heap and it is not even completely conquered yet three months into the war. Russian casualties in the Donbas do not speak of cheering crowds throwing flowers across the marching Russian soldier's paths. They are being made to fight for every inch of land they gain. It would be disingenuous to suggest there is a natural divide in the country deep in Ukrainian territory when this war seems to have shifted the geographical line between pro-Russian and pro-Ukraine close to the Russian border. At the start of this war, I would have suggested the Dnieper River as the natural divide based on the 2010 Russian election results. But even Russian Ukrainians resent this intrusion into their territory and this war has activated a national identity that was only grudging before it. Now I believe the Donbas, Crimea, and maybe a land bridge to the Crimea are the very most the Russians can expect to gain.

The Russians have already begun to consolidate the land they've gained this year. The ruble has been introduced as the currency of these occupied territories. The United Russia Party has set up an office in Mariupol. Once the new de facto borders solidify, all the outrage in the world is not going to reverse the new political reality and get a devastated, war-torn country it's lost territory back. They can claim their pre-2014 borders. They might as well claim the moon while they're at it. They have no means of getting them.

The longer this war goes on the less advantage Russia has in terms of equipment. They have succeeded in mobilizing and unifying the Western world against them and Finland and Sweden and maybe even Ukraine will eventually join NATO because of this. They have woken Germany from its 30-year slumber and discredited and disgraced the peaceniks that have served their Russian purpose in the German parliament these last 3 decades. ExChancellor Gerhard Schroeder is now a pariah. But at the end of the day, this will be a war of attrition and peace will come with compromises for both sides.

Putin has more to sacrifice than Zelensky does, that's for sure.

He is prepared to sacrifice more men and seems to have full control over his people. They serve him because they fear him more than love him though and morale in the Russian army is not high. Zelensky by contrast does not need to mobilize his people to fight because they are all doing that and he merely expresses their passion in his diatribes and directs it to the enemy. He is in the weaker position nation for the nation but he has more friends and arguably his friends are bigger and more militarily potent than either Russia or China.

 

[Trusting in Him]

I have three unopened one litre bottles which I use in our bread machine. All three bottles are past their use by date, but I think that they should be alright. I've also got some flour, which I am hoping should be alright to use. I have got a recipe of of the internet for making cabbage bread and I intend to try making some of that.

There is not all that much flour needed, except just enough to stick the chopped up bits of cabbage together. As far as I know, I am not aware of any shortage of cabbage, so I think that we should be alright for have something to stop us from becoming too hungry. It's also possible to use potatoes in bread as well as a useful source of carbohydrate.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Comrades, great news! The Pope confirms that NATO started war! Glorious times for Peaceful Russian Peace Forces in Nazi Ukraine. Russia invites Pope to come to MOCKBA and kiss Comrade Putin's ring. Also to become member of Russian Orthodox Church.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Comrades, great news! The Pope confirms that NATO started war! Glorious times for Peaceful Russian Peace Forces in Nazi Ukraine. Russia invites Pope to come to MOCKBA and kiss Comrade Putin's ring. Also to become member of Russian Orthodox Church.

The city or the ship? (The latter will require SCUBA gear.)

 

[Landon Caeli]

Comrades, great news! The Pope confirms that NATO started war! Glorious times for Peaceful Russian Peace Forces in Nazi Ukraine. Russia invites Pope to come to MOCKBA and kiss Comrade Putin's ring. Also to become member of Russian Orthodox Church.

What do you mean?

 

[Aryeh Jay]

The city or the ship? (The latter will require SCUBA gear.)

Oh, I forgot about the minor accident.

The city.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Oh, I forgot about the minor accident.

The city.

That makes more sense. A lot of Russian military vehicles seem to be having these "minor" accidents. They should really stay out of the "rocket lanes" some of those things are explosive.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

He is in the weaker position nation for the nation but he has more friends and arguably his friends are bigger and more militarily potent than either Russia or China.

Ashraf Ghani had the same friends. How useful did they end up being for him?

 

[mindlight]

Comrades, great news! The Pope confirms that NATO started war! Glorious times for Peaceful Russian Peace Forces in Nazi Ukraine. Russia invites Pope to come to MOCKBA and kiss Comrade Putin's ring. Also to become member of Russian Orthodox Church.

This was a really strange post. It is not the cold war. NATO did not start this war, Putin did, and even some of his friends now consider that a mistake. The pope has clearly denounced this war. I guess you were attempting satire here but it did not work in this case.

 

[mindlight]

Ashraf Ghani had the same friends. How useful did they end up being for him?

The Afghans were given every chance by America to reform and rebuild their country after the oppression and incompetence of the Taliban years. Fed up with the corruption, the drain on resources, and the continued defiance of Islamists the Americans finally decided the place was not worth it anymore. The British also made a similar decision a century ago. Afghanistan does not defeat empires so much as deter them with its warlords and worthlessness. Ashraf Ghani deserted his people when he heard the US was leaving and is now living it up in the UAE with money he should not have.

The US support here, as of the mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Soviets, may well prove decisive in this war. It is easier and cheaper to mess up a conqueror than to be one.

 

[mindlight]

The news has not been as encouraging this week with the Russians making incremental gains in the Donbas. The Ukrainians are exacting a considerable cost for these gains but the Russians are advancing.
The Ukrainians remain adamant that they will concede no land to Russia but Zelensky has commented that he considers it unlikely that a reconquest of the Crimea would be worth the cost of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives. He is holding out for a diplomatic solution that gives Ukraine those lands back.

I have to say this looks unlikely and that a compromise is the more likely outcome of this war when both sides are finally ready to accept it. There are now more than 800000 Ukrainians here in Germany and 2.5 million in Poland. I wonder if the Ukrainian diaspora is as tuned into the realities on the ground as the men actually fighting there. Are they urging their men to sacrifice from the comfort of armchairs?

The Ukrainian army has proven itself a capable defensive force but not yet an offensive force and they do not yet possess the weaponry for an offense. Both sides need to run a cost-benefit analysis on this war. What is reconquering the Donbas or Crimea worth in terms of lives and treasure? How long must this war drag on before people come to their senses and to the negotiating table?

The Ukrainian fear is that any peace that is not an absolute restoration of their lands will send the message that Russian aggression pays and will invite more wars later on. But the Crimea is more Russian than Ukrainian as is the East of the Donbas. Is there a way forward here that allows Ukrainian fears for their future security to be met without the injustice of allowing the aggressor to win too many spoils of war? Can NATO and the EU give Ukraine the hope and guarantee of a secure and prosperous future without compromising on the necessary steps that need to be taken to prepare Ukraine for entry into these organizations?

 

[Tom 1]

I am not sure if a broken and defeated Russia is actually better than one than gets territories it pretty much already controls already and then a clear message that the borders are guaranteed by NATO from now on.

It’s Ukraine that would need to write neutrality into their constitution, that has to be their choice. The prospect of Ukraine actually meeting the requirements to be accepted into NATO is and was a pretty distant one in any case. If they do join the EU, which they weren’t ready for before the conflict, that should help to reduce the corruption somewhat, as it has in Romania, so perhaps at some point in the future NATO could be a viable option. NATO handing Putin a victory by ceding control over NATO decisions to him, and riding roughshod over the whole idea of nationhood and sovereignty, would be a huge victory for Putin at home, would increase the value of close ties with Russia for China and belittle NATO. In terms of territory, Putin is aiming for a lot more than the self-declared independent republics. Any capitulation beyond that is a guarantee that Russia will maintain a strong military presence on NATO borders, and push for more control over more territory as soon as the opportunity seems ripe. A resounding defeat, if that is possible, of Russian forces is the only way to ensure at least a significant setback to Putin’s aims, and whoever comes after him might be more cautious as a result.

 

[Tom 1]

The Ukrainians are exacting a considerable cost for these gains but the Russians are advancing.

It’s not over yet, though. Ukrainian forces have made some advances in the North of the current active combat zone, and if additional heavy weaponry can be delivered where needed they may be able to severely disrupt some of Russia’s supply lines, which would make it harder for Russian forces to continue advancing further south. Like you say, though, casualties are high, and the high-ups in Russia have a remarkable lack of concern for their own troops that could be a deciding factor, they don’t seem to think twice about funnelling inexperienced troops into the meat grinder. Attrition could have more impact on Ukrainian military decisions.