If Russia invades the Ukraine...

[Trusting in Him]

I don't think that we know very much about the motivation levels of the russian troops and this might also be a significant factor which may affect the outcome. The facts is that some of these Russian conscripts are in danger of becoming a lost generation and no longer having the oppotunities of getting married and raising their own families, which could be a highly demoralising factor.

The Ukrainian Army is largely a full time professional army, with additional volenteers as well so the motivation is likey to be somewhat better than the Russian conscripts. A lot of the original Russian equipment is likely to be older equipment much of which will require replacement due to losses at some time.

It's fairly likely that some of the western equipment which has been donated by NATO countries will be older equipment, although anti-tank and smaller anti-aircraft weapons are likely to be quite upto date weapons. Given the fact that a lot of any information available may be more proporganda related, rather than strictly factual, I think that it is very difficult to make any meaningful judgements about the current likely outcome.

It could be that this might drag on, for a very long time as a stalemented war with no end in sight and will be an extended war of attriction which will cost very many lives on both sides. Given the fact that most men have been prevented from leaving Ukraine. Those who have escaped the country are likely to be mostly women and children, some there still maybe plenty of mean left in Ukraine to still fight on. I don't think that there is a lot of point in trying to make any predictions at this stage.

 

[mindlight]

It’s Ukraine that would need to write neutrality into their constitution, that has to be their choice. The prospect of Ukraine actually meeting the requirements to be accepted into NATO is and was a pretty distant one in any case. If they do join the EU, which they weren’t ready for before the conflict, that should help to reduce the corruption somewhat, as it has in Romania, so perhaps at some point in the future NATO could be a viable option. NATO handing Putin a victory by ceding control over NATO decisions to him, and riding roughshod over the whole idea of nationhood and sovereignty, would be a huge victory for Putin at home, would increase the value of close ties with Russia for China and belittle NATO. In terms of territory, Putin is aiming for a lot more than the self-declared independent republics. Any capitulation beyond that is a guarantee that Russia will maintain a strong military presence on NATO borders, and push for more control over more territory as soon as the opportunity seems ripe. A resounding defeat, if that is possible, of Russian forces is the only way to ensure at least a significant setback to Putin’s aims, and whoever comes after him might be more cautious as a result.

I am not sure that writing neutrality in the constitution should be part of the peace deal. Russia has already shown contempt for treaties it has signed and so a more definite guarantee is needed from NATO of any borders that arise from the peace treaty. The alternative is an absolute Ukrainian victory which will probably cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The Ukrainians may consider that a better alternative to subjugation though, that is their choice. Zelensky has some political capital to use the war to removed corrupt security officials from Kharkiv and other places and to start to insist that the Ukrainian elites and indeed mafia start to play by the rules. But the problems are deeply entrenched and may even be exacerbated by the poverty, ruin, and rootlessness created by this war. Ukraine is in a very meaningful sense fighting for the freedom of Europeans and is in trouble because they made a choice toward us rather than Russia. Europe should honor that choice but without allowing endemic corruption and organized crime into Europe as a whole. Many of the Eastern European countries still have their KGB elites in place and they cause enough problems as it is.

Whatever Putin's aims he has the whole world against him now and causing a famine in Africa and the Middle East will rapidly destroy any international sympathy for him. He cannot win this as he defined victory at the start. He might achieve a compromise division of Ukraine but it is vital that the openendedness of this conflict that he has kept going on since 2014 is closed down with finalized and guaranteed borders. In this way, Ukraine can rebuild and deal with its corruption and organized crime issues once and for all and thereby qualify for NATO and EU membership.

 

[mindlight]

It’s not over yet, though. Ukrainian forces have made some advances in the North of the current active combat zone, and if additional heavy weaponry can be delivered where needed they may be able to severely disrupt some of Russia’s supply lines, which would make it harder for Russian forces to continue advancing further south. Like you say, though, casualties are high, and the high-ups in Russia have a remarkable lack of concern for their own troops that could be a deciding factor, they don’t seem to think twice about funnelling inexperienced troops into the meat grinder. Attrition could have more impact on Ukrainian military decisions.

Motivation is high in the Ukrainian military and they are getting better weapons and mobilizing more and more men. Even if Russia gains the Donbas the Ukrainians might eventually retake this. Putin's willingness to sacrifice his troops is supported by his control of the internal discussion about this war, the fear of the population, and his effective suppression of alternate voices to his own. I believe a considerable number of Russians also share his sentiment about this war. Defeat in battle would be an unanswerable rebuke for him though and would weaken him substantially. Also right now these are mainly his good troops that are dying. The rumors are that much of his special forces were wiped out early on. There are conscripts on the front lines and he has called up specialists over 40 now also. Eventually, he runs out of trained men and has to replace them with raw recruits. Maybe he will be able to do that but the effectiveness of Russia will decline with the quality of its forces and with the loss of equipment. He will not out-match NATO's industrial capacity in the very long run and ability to replace weapons.

 

[mindlight]

I don't think that we know very much about the motivation levels of the russian troops and this might also be a significant factor which may affect the outcome. The facts is that some of these Russian conscripts are in danger of becoming a lost generation and no longer having the oppotunities of getting married and raising their own families, which could be a highly demoralising factor.

The Ukrainian Army is largely a full time professional army, with additional volenteers as well so the motivation is likey to be somewhat better than the Russian conscripts. A lot of the original Russian equipment is likely to be older equipment much of which will require replacement due to losses at some time.

It's fairly likely that some of the western equipment which has been donated by NATO countries will be older equipment, although anti-tank and smaller anti-aircraft weapons are likely to be quite upto date weapons. Given the fact that a lot of any information available may be more proporganda related, rather than strictly factual, I think that it is very difficult to make any meaningful judgements about the current likely outcome.

It could be that this might drag on, for a very long time as a stalemented war with no end in sight and will be an extended war of attriction which will cost very many lives on both sides. Given the fact that most men have been prevented from leaving Ukraine. Those who have escaped the country are likely to be mostly women and children, some there still maybe plenty of mean left in Ukraine to still fight on. I don't think that there is a lot of point in trying to make any predictions at this stage.

Yes, I think he has already lost a lot of regular troops and will need to draw on less motivated conscripts more and more as time passes. Even if the NATO equipment is old so is much of the equipment that the Russian army is using. Also as you say things like NLAWs and Star Streak are very uptodate.

As with many wars, this may come down to a test of will in the end. Given that the guy fighting for his home is likely to be more motivated than the one who is not I believe that will tip the balance in the long run. But there are variables like what would happen if either leader Putin or Zelensky were killed on the way.

 

[Tom 1]

Motivation is high in the Ukrainian military and they are getting better weapons and mobilizing more and more men. Even if Russia gains the Donbas the Ukrainians might eventually retake this. Putin's willingness to sacrifice his troops is supported by his control of the internal discussion about this war, the fear of the population, and his effective suppression of alternate voices to his own. I believe a considerable number of Russians also share his sentiment about this war. Defeat in battle would be an unanswerable rebuke for him though and would weaken him substantially. Also right now these are mainly his good troops that are dying. The rumors are that much of his special forces were wiped out early on. There are conscripts on the front lines and he has called up specialists over 40 now also. Eventually, he runs out of trained men and has to replace them with raw recruits. Maybe he will be able to do that but the effectiveness of Russia will decline with the quality of its forces and with the loss of equipment. He will not out-match NATO's industrial capacity in the very long run and ability to replace weapons.

True enough, but without the capacity to take out Russia's long-range artillery Ukraine is doomed to see a repeat of Russia's eventual victory in Grozny (or Mariupol). Artillery might not win individual battles but without an approximately even match Russia's superior long-range fire capacity will lead to incremental gains, which could eventually lead to a rout of Ukrainian forces in the most contested areas. They really need long range artillery, and quickly.

 

[Tom 1]

The alternative is an absolute Ukrainian victory which will probably cost hundreds of thousands of lives

Not really, the alternative is a return to pre Feb 24th borders. Kyiv seems willing to cede the two areas claiming independence. Regaining Crimea militarily isn't an option, but if Ukraine gets the weaponry their forces need to prevent further Russian gains and push Russian forces back, Putin could be forced into an 'agree to disagree' compromise over Crimea's official status. NATO stepping in to make the decision of neutrality in Ukraine's stead would represent a total failure of the democratic ideal it is set up to defend, handing Putin a ideological victory that will have huge and long-lasting consequences.

 

[Tom 1]

He cannot win this as he defined victory at the start.

That still isn't impossible. If Russia consolidates gains made in the East, they will set up defensive positions that will be very hard to break. Putin plays the long game. If Russian forces gain control over the land along the coast to Transnistria to the same degree as the territories they have controlled since 2014, they will be virtually impossible to dislodge, and the conflict will likely spread to Moldova and, as Ukraine is unlikely to cease resisting, eventually to the rest of Ukraine. The window of opportunity to set Russia back is now, and without greater long-range fire capacity Ukraine is unlikely to prevail.

 

[Tom 1]

it is vital that the openendedness of this conflict that he has kept going on since 2014 is closed down with finalized and guaranteed borders.

There's no way that's going to happen. Putin might agree to something like that on paper, but no way is he going to honour it. In the same way Russia continually repeated 'there are no Russia troops in...(take your pick) despite all evidence that there were and are, they will just keep pursuing the same goals and lying about it. As far as Ukraine goes, there is no off switch for Putin. Either he controls it, directly or by proxy, or it ceases to exist as a nation. Already in Mariupol, where corpses are still rotting in the streets, kids are being forced to remain in school over summer to begin the Russian state curriculum, including their propaganda version of the non-existence of Ukraine.

 

[Tom 1]

Mohawk Russia avenging Hiroshima civilians to US of Sodom and Gomorrah - for false christians "arrive like a thief (Ivanhoe Precursor)" in hypersonic plasma too
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For United States of Sodom and Gomorrah always against benevolent strangers in mission of 2 witnesses of Revelation
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You are here not just un-Christian. But also according to the pagan Roman law one had to let express all the sides of the conflict. But it's the Sanhedrin of Caiaphas when you slap the Truth-Jesus from top to bottom. And Jesus answers "show first that I said wrongly". And in Saint John Mosch it is said that the sin of this man who slapped Jesus is equal to a serial maniac who hunts on pregnant women.
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Therefore 1 Corinthian chapter 5
1It is actually reported that there is sexual immorality among you, and of a kind that even pagans do not tolerate: A man is sleeping with his father’s wife. 2And you are proud! Shouldn’t you rather have gone into mourning and have put out of your fellowship the man who has been doing this? 3For my part, even though I am not physically present, I am with you in spirit. As one who is present with you in this way, I have already passed judgment in the name of our Lord Jesus on the one who has been doing this. 4So when you are assembled and I am with you in spirit, and the power of our Lord Jesus is present, 5hand this man over to Satan -
Anathema to you together and personaly and your linear with kids

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Balaam of the Church of Pergamum - (Catholics) in the Revelation of John. A high-ranking dignitary, false pope who tries for unworthy gain (like robbing Ukraine for West) to intrigue against his Orthodox brethren (from Smyrna) in Russia:


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As in the church of Sardes dead of the Anglo-American sects Jesus comes as a thief in his Precursor Ivanhoe on the mission of Elijah one of the 2 witnesses of chapter 11 of Revelation

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Queen Jezebel (with his wicked court jester Boris Johnson) Freemason in Church of Thyatira - Reformation of Luther and Calvin. With its "depths of satan" - Freemason ideology in the West. She is thrown with her family on the bed of pain (by Revelation of John). So:

like a thief the judgement on you
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Templar Banks - Balaam; teutonic NATO - Balak; Freemason lodge - occult queen Jezebel of West. =666. Recieve not Gospel of Truth and no thing without this western hypocrisy 666.
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By One of 2 Witnesses.

PS
As an influential heretic eunuch from Rome told St Ambrose of Milan "stop, otherwise I'll kill you" - "only if God allows you, and even then (of the nuclear conflict) you will remain a eunuch, and I - bishop"

Not 3 cheeks

Please sum up what you mean in a way that is relevant to the posts you responded to. Just a couple of sentences in your own words please, no more vids and quotes.