If Russia invades the Ukraine...

[Hans Blaster]

I agree with almost all that you stated.

I'm not sure there had been any mass flooding into the Donbas by Russia in the past week. That is somewhat irrelevant since they have been in control for years.

Russia started moving troops in overtly on Monday. Actual Russian combat units had not previously been in those separatist regions.

On perspective is that there was a coup in Ukraine, and the primary opposition (and support of the old government) has chosen not to accept that coup. After all the former president was from the Donbass.

There was a revolution in 2014 that force the Putin-backed president of Ukraine to flee. The parliament force him out 8 years ago this Monday (21 Feb 2014). A new presidential election was held 3 months later, but the Crimean takeover didn't wait that long.

The 2019 "elections" were a recognition that much of the country had NOT accepted the results of the coup. Crimean voters were excluded. Donbass voter were excluded. Out of country voters living in Russia were excluded. But they did have an election, having found an actor willing to act as president, as he did on television. The US wasn't outraged at all after all, we elected Reagan and Trump.

That there was no voting in territories that were occupied by a foreign power or in an active war is surprising why?

I don't see where this is some how an illegitimate election. I don't see any international reaction to it as such.

 

[Trusting in Him]

We have woken up this morning to the news that Russia have begun the invasion. The news media is currently a bit confused about the degree of what has happened thus far, but it is clear that some pretty major stuff has been happening. NATO countries have been holding back on the degree on sanctions imposed so far, hoping to deter Russia from beginning the invasion, well it did not stop them. Apparently NATO countries are going to impose more serious levels of sanctions, but Russia is apparently unlikely to be bothered by this at all. Russia is said to have large financial reserves at this point in time and is not likely to be seriously affected for quite a long time.

Ukraine produces perhaps 50% (sorry, I don't know the exact amount) of the worlds wheat suitable for economically grinding into flour and much of the rest comes from the American grain belt states. British wheat contains too much water content when harvested and therefore it make more sense to buy wheat for grinding into flour from other countries like Ukraine, which has a drier climate. British wheat is most grown for animal feed and is only dried enough to prevent it from developing mould in storage. Only certain areas within Britain are suitable to grow wheat, so maybe this may become a problem for us.

In the light of these current events, this could be largely uncharted territory for Britain and some of the European NATO countries for supplies of some of their food and energy needs and it's probably not very clear how we are going to cope, meeting the full effects of less access to certain essential supplies and materials for a little while. We do have some experience of managing with some shortages from the days of rationing during world war two, but the world has chained a lot since then. I am expecting that it is very likely that Britain and the European NATO countries are going to be paying a lot more for their basic essential supplies, materials and energy supplies in the not too distant future.

 

[FireDragon76]

No wheat? Eat more potatoes.

I was somewhat surprised at Putin going full-on thug today, but not totally surprised. Russian oligarchs have been setting their country on a collision course for some time. I just expected Putin to be more subtle.

 

[eclipsenow]

Ukraine produces perhaps 50% (sorry, I don't know the exact amount) of the worlds wheat suitable for economically grinding into flour and much of the rest comes from the American grain belt states.

According to Germany's Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control, Ukraine's wheat production accounts for 11.5% of the world market, while Russia's share is 16.8%. When it comes to corn, Ukraine supplies 17% of the world's export market.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-increases-global-food-insecurity​

Weirdly - and it's probably because of the corn - this is expected to drive up the cost of meat. For climate reasons we've got to stop eating as much meat anyway, and should probably let those poor cows eat what they prefer - grass. If we have to eat actual meat, we should only eat the best - the stuff grown by 'Managed Grazing' or Joel Salatin's "Mob, mow, and move" method. It's better for the cows, and turns the soil into a massive carbon sink.

Now, while we're talking about Russian and Ukrainian exports - can you imagine what this next technology could do to geopolitics if it bears fruit and works as advertised? All the protein and carbs and fats you could want WITHOUT farming, WITHOUT photosynthesis - straight from electricity!
Electricity splits water and feeds hydrogen to bacteria - with a few fertilisers. Here's George Monbiot eating a pancake made from the stuff. Lab-grown food is about to destroy farming – and save the planet | George Monbiot They claim it will scale up to grow protein cheaper than soybeans by 2025, and that it will cook all the proteins and fats and carbs we need, and even arrive in different flavours. They want to cook up an alternative kind of fish-finger with omega-3's, or something like a chicken nugget. It could replace livestock and wheat and corn farms. All that's required are much smaller gardens for fruit and veg and herbs and spices for flavour and texture woven into this factory stuff. It could be the biggest jump in human food since we invented farming 10,000 years ago! Solar Foods - Wikipedia
The Chinese are working on another route - a chemical way to cook up sugary starches used for both food and cardboard etc. In keeping with the "Ferming" above, I call this one "Starching".

They sound like some gifts from Science Fiction. Worth keeping an eye on!

In other words - if it only takes electricity + water to grow food, desert nations could have food abundance. Also, one of the most serious consequences of climate change just got a silver bullet!

 

[Trusting in Him]

Ukraine is one of the coutries with a large Jewish population and many of the Ukrainian Jews have decided to stay rather than leave to go to another country. Also lots of the bakery shops in Ukraine are Jewish and the Jewish bakers have stayed to keep baking the bread for those Ukrainians who are still there.

During the second world war the nazi's were fearful about the book of Esther in the bible and tried to stop people from reading the book of Esther, because they were fearful of God's retribution for what they were doing to the Jews. After the second world war war crimes trial were finished, ten of the Germans were sentanced to be hung and they started the hanging during the year hidden in the text of the book of Esther. Purim which is celebrated every year and celebrates when God's people were delivered and those who sought to wipe out the Jews were hung.

The same connection is also true of the date of Stalin's death. Stalin had hatched a plot to wipe out Russia's Jew's and before he could do it, he also died on the festival of Purim. Throughout history God does not appear to allow the slaughter of His people to go unavenged. You will be able to check these facts via the internet.

Strange Parallels Between the Purim Story and the Nuremberg Trials | United with Israel

Stalin and the Purim Miracle - aish.com

Maybe Putin is going to find that his carefully thought out plans, might be countered by the unseen hand of God. Of course I don't know this, but surely there are many prayers being made right now for God's intervention to preserve and protect the innocent.

 

[Robban]

Ukraine is one of the coutries with a large Jewish population and many of the Ukrainian Jews have decided to stay rather than leave to go to another country. Also lots of the bakery shops in Ukraine are Jewish and the Jewish bakers have stayed to keep baking the bread for those Ukrainians who are still there.

During the second world war the nazi's were fearful about the book of Esther in the bible and tried to stop people from reading the book of Esther, because they were fearful of God's retribution for what they were doing to the Jews. After the second world war war crimes trial were finished, ten of the Germans were sentanced to be hung and they started the hanging during the year hidden in the text of the book of Esther. Purim which is celebrated every year and celebrates when God's people were delivered and those who sought to wipe out the Jews were hung.

The same connection is also true of the date of Stalin's death. Stalin had hatched a plot to wipe out Russia's Jew's and before he could do it, he also died on the festival of Purim. Throughout history God does not appear to allow the slaughter of His people to go unavenged. You will be able to check these facts via the internet.

Strange Parallels Between the Purim Story and the Nuremberg Trials | United with Israel

Stalin and the Purim Miracle - aish.com

Maybe Putin is going to find that his carefully thought out plans, might be countered by the unseen hand of God. Of course I don't know this, but surely there are many prayers being made right now for God's intervention to preserve and protect the innocent.

Torah is what stands in the way.

By forbidding Torah study and teaching, somehow there are those who believe they can do as they please.

The Greeks did not want to kill Jews, they wanted Jews to assimilate.

Whacky Stalin had them shot or sent to hard labour in Siberia.

When A. Hitler was asked how it would be for the Jews
who escaped he answered, they will assimilate.

The late Rebbe told Jews who had arrived in America,
that America was no different.

He warned them of the risk of assimilation.

Malachi 3:16-18

 

[FireDragon76]

Ukraine is one of the coutries with a large Jewish population and many of the Ukrainian Jews have decided to stay rather than leave to go to another country. Also lots of the bakery shops in Ukraine are Jewish and the Jewish bakers have stayed to keep baking the bread for those Ukrainians who are still there.

During the second world war the nazi's were fearful about the book of Esther in the bible and tried to stop people from reading the book of Esther, because they were fearful of God's retribution for what they were doing to the Jews. After the second world war war crimes trial were finished, ten of the Germans were sentanced to be hung and they started the hanging during the year hidden in the text of the book of Esther. Purim which is celebrated every year and celebrates when God's people were delivered and those who sought to wipe out the Jews were hung.

The same connection is also true of the date of Stalin's death. Stalin had hatched a plot to wipe out Russia's Jew's and before he could do it, he also died on the festival of Purim. Throughout history God does not appear to allow the slaughter of His people to go unavenged. You will be able to check these facts via the internet.

Strange Parallels Between the Purim Story and the Nuremberg Trials | United with Israel

Stalin and the Purim Miracle - aish.com

Maybe Putin is going to find that his carefully thought out plans, might be countered by the unseen hand of God. Of course I don't know this, but surely there are many prayers being made right now for God's intervention to preserve and protect the innocent.

The US has over twice the number of Jews as a percentage of the population. Less than 1 percent of Ukraine is Jewish. In addition, most Jews in Ukraine, like President Zelensky, are not religious, just as is the case in the US.

 

[Trusting in Him]

The US has over twice the number of Jews as a percentage of the population. Less than 1 percent of Ukraine is Jewish. In addition, most Jews in Ukraine, like President Zelensky, are not religious, just as is the case in the US.

Oh that's not what is suggested from a discussion video I was looking at.

 

[FireDragon76]

Oh that's not what is suggested from a discussion video I was looking at.

Perhaps that's because it's not a reliable source of information?

 

[Trusting in Him]

Perhaps that's because it's not a reliable source of information?

I guess so! It said on BBC radio 4 last night that there are still Jewish Holocaust survivers living in Ukraine, one elderly couple where the husband was housebound could not travel to the border. The husband then died of natural causes and the wife has now received an invite to go to another country. They did not say what happened to her.

There's some very sad stories of families who are separated and their mobile phone batteries have run out, but they can't currently get them recharged to stay in contact.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

I am just trying to figure out how the percentage or number of Jews determines if a country is invaded or not.

 

[Trusting in Him]

I am just trying to figure out how the percentage or number of Jews determines if a country is invaded or not.

It probably has more to do with the fact that Ukraine was not already a member of NATO!

 

[Trusting in Him]

I think that the longer that this goes on for, there are more and more chances for the law of unintended consequences to mess up Putin's original plans. I think that Putin think's that his own plans cannot go wrong and he has not consider that he might need a plan B at some time, but he is opposed to needing to revise his plans, because he does not want anyone to think that he made a mistake!

 

[Trusting in Him]

No wheat? Eat more potatoes.

I was somewhat surprised at Putin going full-on thug today, but not totally surprised. Russian oligarchs have been setting their country on a collision course for some time. I just expected Putin to be more subtle.

I've bought some powdered potato to try in my bread machine to make some of the wheat flour go a little further. I guessing that if I keep the strong white flour at the usual amount, but reduce the wholemeal four by about 30 percent and make up the 30 percent with powdered potato as a starting point and to see what happens. I'm guessing that it might not be too bad!

 

[mindlight]

I think that the longer that this goes on for, there are more and more chances for the law of unintended consequences to mess up Putin's original plans. I think that Putin think's that his own plans cannot go wrong and he has not consider that he might need a plan B at some time, but he is opposed to needing to revise his plans, because he does not want anyone to think that he made a mistake!

Plan A was blitzkrieg and regime change and seems to have failed. Now he is trying the steam roller tactic from the Donbas and is also focused on the south and maybe linking up with Moldavia. It seems the Russian propaganda machine is flexible enough to twist reality into a form that suggests that this was Putin's intent all along. If he secures the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea then he has enough to talk peace in my estimation. He would ideally like to add a land bridge to Moldavia but that is not going to happen. If he drags this on too long he could actually start to lose this war. In the long term, he cannot win the whole country even though that was clearly his original intent. A major issue now for peace may well be that the American intent is to bleed Russia dry with this war, permanently weakening it and Zelensky may have no mandate from the Ukrainian people to make any territorial concessions at all. In which case this war will go on until Russia leaves. But that would be a defeat for Putin and I am not sure he could ever accept that as the end scenario.

My hope is for peace sooner rather than later. The loss of the Donbas and Crimea, at a bare minimum, is probably the price on the Ukrainian side but my hope is that they will gain NATO security guarantees and a fast track to EU membership as a result thus stabilizing their border with Russia from then on.

 

[mindlight]

I've bought some powdered potato to try in my bread machine to make some of the wheat flour go a little further. I guessing that if I keep the strong white flour at the usual amount, but reduce the wholemeal four by about 30 percent and make up the 30 percent with powdered potato as a starting point and to see what happens. I'm guessing that it might not be too bad!

Flour is returning to the shelves now here in Germany, but cooking oil still remains missing.

 

[Nithavela]

Flour is returning to the shelves now here in Germany, but cooking oil still remains missing.

Olive oil is in plentyful supply where I live.

I always buy 3 liter canisters of greek olive oil when they are on sale at LIDL, which last me close to a year. Still have one that hasn't been opened yet.

 

[Nithavela]

Plan A was blitzkrieg and regime change and seems to have failed. Now he is trying the steam roller tactic from the Donbas and is also focused on the south and maybe linking up with Moldavia. It seems the Russian propaganda machine is flexible enough to twist reality into a form that suggests that this was Putin's intent all along. If he secures the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea then he has enough to talk peace in my estimation. He would ideally like to add a land bridge to Moldavia but that is not going to happen. If he drags this on too long he could actually start to lose this war. In the long term, he cannot win the whole country even though that was clearly his original intent. A major issue now for peace may well be that the American intent is to bleed Russia dry with this war, permanently weakening it and Zelensky may have no mandate from the Ukrainian people to make any territorial concessions at all. In which case this war will go on until Russia leaves. But that would be a defeat for Putin and I am not sure he could ever accept that as the end scenario.

My hope is for peace sooner rather than later. The loss of the Donbas and Crimea, at a bare minimum, is probably the price on the Ukrainian side but my hope is that they will gain NATO security guarantees and a fast track to EU membership as a result thus stabilizing their border with Russia from then on.

I doubt Ukraine will allow Russia to conquer as much territory as it can and then, when it has exausted itself, to allow peace talks.

In the long term, Russia will lose this and be pushed out of Ukraine, including Donbass and Crimea. I hope they take their sympathizers with them and maybe send back the million ukranians they abducted in return.

 

[mindlight]

Olive oil is in plentyful supply where I live.

I always buy 3 liter canisters of greek olive oil when they are on sale at LIDL, which last me close to a year. Still have one that hasn't been opened yet.

We have been hamsters through most of this pandemic and have had a rolling 3-month stock for 2 years now. My growing children eat loads and we are always cooking /thermomixing. All kinds of cooking oil except Lein oil have disappeared from shelves and flour is still exotic bio versions rather than normal flour around where I am. I got the last 10-liter sunflower oil bottle from the local Metro before they got cleaned out in February. But we are already down to about 6 liters left. My wife tends to feed the birds with a haferflocken/sunflower oil combo so we did not eat all of that ourselves. It is breeding season for the birdies and they eat like pigs right now.

 

[Nithavela]

We have been hamsters through most of this pandemic and have had a rolling 3-month stock for 2 years now. My growing children eat loads and we are always cooking /thermomixing. All kinds of cooking oil except Lein oil have disappeared from shelves and flour is still exotic bio versions rather than normal flour around where I am. I got the last 10-liter sunflower oil bottle from the local Metro before they got cleaned out in February. But we are already down to about 6 liters left. My wife tends to feed the birds with a haferflocken/sunflower oil combo so we did not eat all of that ourselves. It is breeding season for the birdies and they eat like pigs right now.

I see.

Our birds have to catch their own sunflower oil.