If Russia invades the Ukraine...

[Landon Caeli]

He likes to play the strong man, maybe that's all there is to it! It's not easy to see why war is going to be any advantage to Him. Economically Russia is not looking great and any repercussions of a war might create further long and protracted economic problems for lots of members of the Russian people, so not great for popularity ratings, I am thinking!

The potential instability issues around the word, might be beneficial for Russian armaments sales, which could perhaps help the Russian economy to improve a bit, but who knows? No one is really all that sure what the end game is at the moment, perhaps there isn't one at all and it's just about helping his popularity ratings with the Russian people!

One thing that's clear, is that Russia acts like a street gang and not a civilized country. Everyone knows it's true.

 

[BasedLuther]

One thing that's clear, is that Russia acts like a street gang and not a civilized country. Everyone knows it's true.

To be honest, they've learned from the best (the West).
What they're doing and have done in Ukraine is not all that dissimilar from what the West did in the Balkans in the 90s. We took advantage of Russia's weakness to weaken them further, by attacking Yugoslavia and destroying it.

"Crimea is Ukraine!" rings hollow from the same group of countries that went "Kosovo is not Serbia!". And reveals that it's a matter of what's politically advantageous, nothing more.

Also (not to you, but in general):

That anyone would choose the first two of the options in the poll is downright frightening.
Probably Americans who won't have to live with the consequences of option 2 (because the war will be "like all the way over in Europe, who cares!?"), and/or either think that Russia won't retaliate for some reason, or that a bit of Fallout 4 IRL is "gonna be totes awesome like"

Coordinated sanctions. Harsh ones. But reacting as if Ukraine was in NATO? LOL, no, thank you.
If Putin goes ahead and attacks the Baltic states, or Poland, or any other NATO-country, that's a WHOLE other matter! But he won't. Because he's neither stupid, nor suicidal.

 

[Albion]

I said over two months ago on this very thread that there will be no invasion, and there hasn’t been, and there won’t be. You can take that to the bank.

The latest news is that Putin's deporting the population of Eastern Ukraine. Previously, he'd imported Russians into Crimea. We probably can put 2 and 2 together and figure out the plan that Putin's working on.

 

[BasedLuther]

I hate saying this, I don't want it, but I think we should push them out and do it hard, so hard that Putin loses credibility.

Do you honestly want NATO to go to war with Russia over a territorial dispute with a non-member state, solely to stick it to Putin?
And if so, how much of that has to do with the UK being nowhere near where the vast majority of the actual fighting will take place?

 

[Trusting in Him]

The BBC Radio 4 news had a report this morning which suggusted that Russia has now completed bringing in the last of the equipment which they will require for an invasion and there is also is talk about civillians being evacuated from Russian areas in Ukraine. So far what's happening is mostly talk and gesturing. There has been plenty of talk about possible false flag operations, which so far don't appear to have happened.

I an still wondering if any invasion it still part of the plan. It's not completely obvious what Putin actually wants. Maybe he is wanting to see what he may get offered to pasivise him and yet him to call the whole thing off. What ever he may be planning for, it's cetainly not particularly clear to anyone else at this stage. He appears to have got plenty of time and it could be that he is not in any hurry to disclose his actual objectives.

 

[Trusting in Him]

Most of the world is having supply chain problems and the supply problems will be greater for the NATO countries that for Russia. If a war is coming, it will be right on their doorstep, so probably less difficult for supply chain problems, that for countries much further away and that does not really suit NATO countries very much.

Do NATO want a war under these conditions? I think not!

 

[Albion]

Do you honestly want NATO to go to war with Russia over a territorial dispute with a non-member state, solely to stick it to Putin?

And if so, how much of that has to do with the UK being nowhere near where the vast majority of the actual fighting will take place?

Kinda reminiscent of what Nevill Chamberlain was thinking about the Sudetenland, isn't it?

 

[Trusting in Him]

I can't see why either side should want war. I think that it would be good if Ukraine became a neutral buffer state with both side agreeing to respect Ukraine's neutrality, but I don't see any signs of that happening any time soon. What happens if this becomes a shooting war and a proxy war supported by the two super powers supplying each side. It's still a showdown between Russia and America. It's not looking like either side is planning on backing down, so it's probably still likely to be very dangerous!

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

The latest news is that Putin's deporting the population of Eastern Ukraine.

Not possible since he has no presence there. On the other hand, despite the Ukranian constitution's formal prohibition on using military force against its own citizens, the Ukranian army has butchered thousands of innocent people there. But the same Western press that condemned Russia's bloodless conquest of the Crimea and hysterically goes on about a presumed upcoming invasion of the Ukraine condones Kiev's bloody aggression in Donbass. Go figure.

Previously, he'd imported Russians into Crimea.

The Russians have been in the Crimea since Czarist times.

This is the thing. Anybody with even a broad familiarity with the recent history of the area knows that most of what the Western press reports about Russia is lies. It's actually astounding to see the credulity with which Washington's reports are repeated. But the mainstream media is the mouthpiece of the same managerial class interests that dominate the government. The politico-media complex, as it's known. It's the mouthpiece of the deep state speaking. When they said that Iraq was enriching yellowcake uranium to make nuclear weapons, it was tragedy. This is just farce.

Do NATO want a war under these conditions? I think not!

You're assuming rationality on the part of NATO.

 

[Trusting in Him]

Not possible since he has no presence there. On the other hand, despite the Ukranian constitution's formal prohibition on using military force against its own citizens, the Ukranian army has butchered thousands of innocent people there. But the same Western press that condemned Russia's bloodless conquest of the Crimea and hysterically goes on about a presumed upcoming invasion of the Ukraine condones Kiev's bloody aggression in Donbass. Go figure.



The Russians have been in the Crimea since Czarist times.

This is the thing. Anybody with even a broad familiarity with the recent history of the area knows that most of what the Western press reports about Russia is lies. It's actually astounding to see the credulity with which Washington's reports are repeated. But the mainstream media is the mouthpiece of the same managerial class interests that dominate the government. The politico-media complex, as it's known. It's the mouthpiece of the deep state speaking. When they said that Iraq was enriching yellowcake uranium to make nuclear weapons, it was tragedy. This is just farce.



You're assuming rationality on the part of NATO.

I'm not sure that there is much rationality from anywhere about this, right now! Talk is cheap, but determining what may, or may not be true right now is another matter!

 

[Opdrey]

Not possible since he has no presence there. On the other hand, despite the Ukranian constitution's formal prohibition on using military force against its own citizens, the Ukranian army has butchered thousands of innocent people there. But the same Western press that condemned Russia's bloodless conquest of the Crimea and hysterically goes on about a presumed upcoming invasion of the Ukraine condones Kiev's bloody aggression in Donbass. Go figure.



The Russians have been in the Crimea since Czarist times.

This is the thing. Anybody with even a broad familiarity with the recent history of the area knows that most of what the Western press reports about Russia is lies. It's actually astounding to see the credulity with which Washington's reports are repeated. But the mainstream media is the mouthpiece of the same managerial class interests that dominate the government. The politico-media complex, as it's known. It's the mouthpiece of the deep state speaking. When they said that Iraq was enriching yellowcake uranium to make nuclear weapons, it was tragedy. This is just farce.



You're assuming rationality on the part of NATO.

Very interesting post. It is always fascinating to see people defend Putin. Everyone should look at both sides of the equation to understand, but it's hard with Putin. Putin is a very scary individual and it has always been difficult for me to accept, for instance, the GOP's embrace of him. Trump's sanctification of Putin's opinion over US Intelligence was troubling to say the least.

I never thought at any point in time in the US that the folks on the patriotic Right would embrace a former KGB officer intent on remaking the USSR but without Communism. A Russia based on dictatorial control.

 

[Opdrey]

I can't see why either side should want war.

It seems that whatever dictator is running Russia at the time wants Ukraine. As I understand it there is a cultural connection to the Kyiv Rus and the origin of the Russian people. I also assume there must be some other value (like retaining a buffer state at the very least).

I think that it would be good if Ukraine became a neutral buffer state with both side agreeing to respect Ukraine's neutrality,

I actually kind of agree here. I think NATO should at least provisionally say "Yeah, we won't allow Ukraine in if you (Putin) stop threatening and messing with Ukraine's internal politics." That would put the ball in Putin's court and he would have to reveal is TRUE intentions (ie does he just want Ukraine and this is just a pretext? Or is he really just wanting Ukraine barred from NATO).

but I don't see any signs of that happening any time soon. What happens if this becomes a shooting war and a proxy war supported by the two super powers supplying each side. It's still a showdown between Russia and America. It's not looking like either side is planning on backing down, so it's probably still likely to be very dangerous!

For those of us who grew up in the Cold War we were actually quite happy when we thought it had ended. Putin has rekindled it and we are falling in lock-step to bring us right back to the 1960's.

 

[Trusting in Him]

During the cold war, we had some very large armed forces and we were all paying for that in our taxes and that was a lot of money. Today's lower taxes are largely because we are not spending as much on needing such large armed forces.

 

[Trusting in Him]

Very interesting post. It is always fascinating to see people defend Putin. Everyone should look at both sides of the equation to understand, but it's hard with Putin. Putin is a very scary individual and it has always been difficult for me to accept, for instance, the GOP's embrace of him. Trump's sanctification of Putin's opinion over US Intelligence was troubling to say the least.

I never thought at any point in time in the US that the folks on the patriotic Right would embrace a former KGB officer intent on remaking the USSR but without Communism. A Russia based on dictatorial control.

I'm not completely sure how sane and rational Putin actually is likely to be. He is probably obsesed with power and promoting the idea that he is aways right. He clearly has an over large ego!

 

[Opdrey]

During the cold war, we had some very large armed forces and we were all paying for that in our taxes and that was a lot of money. Today's lower taxes are largely because we are not spending as much on needing such large armed forces.

Here in the US, however, we have found ways to keep funding a giant military that is still many times larger than any other military on the planet. We will never have money for solving internal problems because any and all additional money must go to our gigantic military.

 

[Trusting in Him]

There is quite a lot of people coming from other countries, where they have had to fight to keep their own freedom to fight for Ukraine being interviewed on various online videos. Added to that there is no shortage of mercinary's who are going to be fighting for Ukraine as well. If there is going to be a war, it's going to be an easy one for either side. Lots of Ukrainian people who are being interviewed are talking about being prepared to fight for country as well. I'm guessing that there will be a lot of famiy's loved ones coming home in body bags on both sides. Such a waste!

 

[Albion]

Not possible since he has no presence there. On the other hand, despite the Ukranian constitution's formal prohibition on using military force against its own citizens, the Ukranian army has butchered thousands of innocent people there.

The deportations of men, women, and children to Russian camps are being accomplished through the head of Putin's front organization, the "Donetsk People’s Republic" which controls parts of Eastern Ukraine.

The Russians have been in the Crimea since Czarist times.

Yes, but in the past several years, the deportations of various other ethnic groups has been accomplished along with the importation of more Russians into Crimea.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Very interesting post. It is always fascinating to see people defend Putin. Everyone should look at both sides of the equation to understand, but it's hard with Putin. Putin is a very scary individual and it has always been difficult for me to accept, for instance, the GOP's embrace of him. Trump's sanctification of Putin's opinion over US Intelligence was troubling to say the least.

I never thought at any point in time in the US that the folks on the patriotic Right would embrace a former KGB officer intent on remaking the USSR but without Communism. A Russia based on dictatorial control.

If you are happy with the current geopolitical order, you probably see Putin as a menace.

If you are not content with world political situation, you probably have some sympathy for him.

 

[Albion]

If you are happy with the current geopolitical order, you probably see Putin as a menace.

If you are not content with world political situation, you probably have some sympathy for him.

None of that follows logically.

 

[Opdrey]

If you are happy with the current geopolitical order, you probably see Putin as a menace.

Well, that and the fact that Putin has had political enemies killed, runs an oligarchy, continually meddles with other country's elections in Europe and elsewhere....

If you are not content with world political situation, you probably have some sympathy for him.

It's hard to have sympathy for a dictator. I understand that some political parties in the USA today have a slightly different view.