Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike

essentialsaltes said:

The forecast is now exactly correct for hurricanes and major hurricanes. It is still shy of its prediction for named storms.

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Climate Change Amplified the Winds in Every Hurricane in 2024​

Every Atlantic hurricane that formed this year had higher wind speeds because of climate change. Two likely would have remained tropical storms without its influence

CLIMATEWIRE | Climate change increased the maximum wind speeds of every Atlantic hurricane that formed this year, scientists have found. All 11 storms intensified between 9 and 28 miles per hour under the influence of warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.

The extra juice pushed seven storms at least one category higher than they would have been without the influence of climate change. And Hurricanes Debby and Oscar likely would have remained tropical storms in a world without global warming.

The new analysis was released Wednesday morning by researchers from the climate science and communications nonprofit Climate Central. It’s the latest study to warn of the dangers of intensifying hurricanes in a warmer world.

Interesting info-graphic-y look at sea level rise, which is particularly strong in the US South and Gulf Coast.

One particular tide gauge at Fort Pulaski near Savannah Georgia shows a recent increase in the rate of water level rise:



One effect I hadn't considered:

First, as ice melts in Greenland or Antarctica, meltwaters spill into the ocean, raising global sea levels everywhere. But, counterintuitively, the coastlines farthest from the ice sheets are hit hardest.

That’s because the ice sheets are gigantic — so gigantic, in fact, that they exert a gravitational pull on the ocean. (The Greenland ice sheet weighs approximately 2.7 quadrillion metric tons, equal to about 450 million Great Pyramids of Giza; the Antarctic ice sheet is 10 times heavier.)

Normally, that enormous weight pulls oceans close to the ice sheets, making sea levels around Greenland and Antarctica higher than they would be otherwise. But as the ice melts, that effect lessens. Sea levels close to the ice sheet fall, and sea levels farther away rise.

Global sea level rose higher than expected last year. Here’s why.​

Last year’s rate of average global sea level rise was 0.23 inches per year, higher than the expected 0.17 inches per year, NASA found. The rise follows are trend of rapidly increasing rates over the past 30 years.

High ocean temperatures have surprised scientists in recent years. The warmth of the world’s ocean has been consistently on the rise since the late 1980s, but rates skyrocketed to new levels in the last two years. An unprecedented streak of ocean heat since 2023 led some scientists to think that this part of Earth’s system has fundamentally changed in a way that it cannot be reversed on a human time scale.

NASA.gov link
Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, last year’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.

Since the satellite record of ocean height began in 1993, the rate of annual sea level rise has more than doubled. In total, global sea level has gone up by 4 inches (10 centimeters) since 1993.

We live in exciting times, don't we?

essentialsaltes said:

Global sea level rose higher than expected last year. Here’s why.​

Last year’s rate of average global sea level rise was 0.23 inches per year, higher than the expected 0.17 inches per year, NASA found. The rise follows are trend of rapidly increasing rates over the past 30 years.

High ocean temperatures have surprised scientists in recent years. The warmth of the world’s ocean has been consistently on the rise since the late 1980s, but rates skyrocketed to new levels in the last two years. An unprecedented streak of ocean heat since 2023 led some scientists to think that this part of Earth’s system has fundamentally changed in a way that it cannot be reversed on a human time scale.

NASA.gov link
Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, last year’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.

Since the satellite record of ocean height began in 1993, the rate of annual sea level rise has more than doubled. In total, global sea level has gone up by 4 inches (10 centimeters) since 1993.

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The scientists calculating the rise of the ocean didn't factor the expansion of warming matter into their calculations?

That's middle school science.

Nithavela said:

The scientists calculating the rise of the ocean didn't factor the expansion of warming matter into their calculations?

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They did, but the recent spike (i.e. the OP from 2023) in temperature means that the warming and the expansion have been faster than expected.

essentialsaltes said:

They did, but the recent spike (i.e. the OP from 2023) in temperature means that the warming and the expansion have been faster than expected.

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Any recommendations?

AV1611VET said:

Any recommendations?

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Don't buy beach property in Miami.

essentialsaltes said:

Don't buy beach property in Miami.

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Is Guam in trouble?

AV1611VET said:

Is Guam in trouble?

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Nah. Just move the population up onto the mountains. It'll be fine.

Yttrium said:

Nah. Just move the population up onto the mountains. It'll be fine.

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I suppose.

Yttrium said:

Nah. Just move the population up onto the mountains. It'll be fine.

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In Kim Stanley Robinson's "Ministry for the future" there's a coal mining town about to go bankrupt as renewables are starting to saturate the market. They have a town hall meeting about (I think from memory) the Federal government 'buying the town'. They knew it was inevitable. But the meeting and debates were all part of a public and cultural grieving process.

Social Justice during this long crisis is going to be important. But under the current political regime - I'm starting to worry that America might soon lose fundamental human rights like free speech - let alone caring about such abstract concepts as 'Social Justice'.

In a similar vein, Australia recently we had squatters in the news. The NSW State government had bought out various homes in Lismore - a town largely built on a floodplain. Insurers were basically threatening not to insure those homes any more. When flood disasters start to strike statistically so often insurers are walking out - something's got to give. So the State bought the homes to let the owners move up the hill. It's that kind of long-term thinking that rezones certain areas as unviable.

But of course squatters moved in - and were protesting about their 'human rights' or whatever.


NSW premier accused of declaring war on Lismore squatters

As our State Premier (Governor in America) said:


Now - with having worked in welfare and studied Social Sciences etc - I'm also concerned for the squatters. But shooting up drugs or whatever in a floodplain known for flash-flooding and then expecting to be saved by emergency workers when it all goes wrong... grrrr!

The sooner these places can be bulldozed and the squatters housed in safe public housing - the better!

Seaside homes will be uninsurable, there will be areas you cannot get a mortgage, and the financial contagion might spread to the whole housing market.

Was this from some raving greenie? No.
Senator Whitehouse is quoting actuaries.

March 6 | Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) issues a final warning to Deputy Treasury Secretary Nominee Michael Faulkender of the "economic storm clouds on the horizon" related to climate change in a Senate Finance Committee hearing.

The denial of climate change in the alt-right seems to be typical of the way the alt-right work.
Warning: this is a bit of a rant about the low regard for truth.
I understand this is a climate science thread - but just feel the need to draw a bigger picture here.

Republicans just do not seem to accept the truth any more. There's no time for hard things like reading and pondering data and facts - and figuring out how to reconcile your voting with the realities of the ground. The realities of the 'invisible hand' of the market - which is not just supply and demand - but more accurately represented by the phrase 'unintended consequences'. That is - put tariffs on friends when you're trying to wean off China - and what do you know? Your friends get annoyed and put tariffs back on you! Oh - and tariffs are NOT taxing the other country - but taxing goods FROM the other country so that American's pay a lot more for their once cheap t-shirts and TVs.

It's like their first amendment right to free speech has been reinterpreted as "the right to repeat any crazy lie as long as MY SIDE WINS!"

Trump has moved the Overton Window (of what is considered acceptable political discourse) so far, so fast with his incessant, narcissistic, reality-denying LIES that Republicans now just go with it. They sit back, open a beer, watch Fox - and chant "Yeah baby!" any time Trump says something crazy.

"They're eating the dogs!"

"We're being ripped off by NATO!"

MAGA thump the armchair, cheer him on, and take another swig.

Fox just reinforces all this - because ... ratings.

I'm amazed it hasn't changed yet!

Spreading Trump's outrageous 'stolen election' lies in the hope of triggering a full insurrection (because narcissists hate to lose!) cost Rupert $787.5 million USD in hush money rather than fight it out in court. Rupert completely backtracked the story - admitting there was absolutely NO DOUBT the whole election had been conducted fairly and above board.

But how many MAGA types will call that fake news? Even though the head of their precious Fox said it in court?

MAGA want the world simplified. They don't want to process anything they digest - no wholemeal bread for them! They want a dumbed down pre-processed white bread sandwich. Preferably with spicy slices of Trumpian slander.

And meanwhile - the physics of CO2 and climate change are known.
The planet cooks.
International order breaks down.
Trump accuses new democratic friends of being tyrants.
They neglect a real invasion of a democratic Ukraine and go off sniffing around Greenland - wanting to invade that before someone else does!

The world has gone mad.
I think I know why.
If you have Netflix - and haven't seen this documentary - it explains how the very physiology of our brains is being wired against us by our social media apps. Social Media has amazing unintended consequences. We are still figuring this all out - let alone the fact that AI is accelerating!

We are entering a post-truth era - which is why I refuse to believe something I read on forums or social media until I can cite the source myself - and know that source to be real!

eclipsenow said:

The denial of climate change in the alt-right seems to be typical of the way the alt-right work.
Warning: this is a bit of a rant about the low regard for truth.

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There has been a loss of confidence in government institutions. One farmer I know tells me about the time the temperate dropped to -13C. Everyone in the district was awestruck, out checking gauges, quickly breaking ice in troughs to allow their stock to drink and checking BOM temps online. BOM initially went to -13C. But later in the day BOM reset the online records to -10C. Farmers emailed BOM asking why the temperature was reset. Finally, they were told that the local BOM gauge was technically only ‘rated’ down to -10C, so they retrospectively “capped/floored" the data at -10C. Such events cause ordinary people to lose confidence in government institutions. And don’t ask Australian farmers about the now unrecorded heat records set in the 1880s-90 unless you have half an hour to spare.... Meanwhile other farmers can explain in precise detail how some of their different agricultural practices have moved by many weeks over the decades due to Australia’s changing climate.

Maori Aussie said:

There has been a loss of confidence in government institutions. One farmer I know tells me about the time the temperate dropped to -13C. Everyone in the district was awestruck, out checking gauges, quickly breaking ice in troughs to allow their stock to drink and checking BOM temps online. BOM initially went to -13C. But later in the day BOM reset the online records to -10C. Farmers emailed BOM asking why the temperature was reset.
Finally, they were told that the local BOM gauge was technically only ‘rated’ down to -10C, so they retrospectively “capped/floored" the data at -10C. Such events cause ordinary people to lose confidence in government institutions. And don’t ask Australian farmers about the now unrecorded heat records set in the 1880s-90 unless you have half an hour to spare.... Meanwhile other farmers can explain in precise detail how some of their different agricultural practices have moved by many weeks over the decades due to Australia’s changing climate.

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The farmer told you. Would this be a Nationals voting farmer?
Dude - you need to catch up.

Even most climate deniers do not deny that the climate is warming - because the facts are the facts - as verified by untold thousands of weather stations, satellite data, observable changes in seasons, the retreating glaciers, etc etc etc etc etc! It's too big to list! Even the last sentence in your OWN POST contradicts EVERYTHING before it.

"The climate isn't changing, because a farmer said..."

"The climate IS changing, because some farmers said..."

Come on!

eclipsenow said:

The farmer told you. Would this be a Nationals voting farmer?
Dude - you need to catch up.

Even most climate deniers do not deny that the climate is warming - because the facts are the facts - as verified by untold thousands of weather stations, satellite data, observable changes in seasons, the retreating glaciers, etc etc etc etc etc! It's too big to list! Even the last sentence in your OWN POST contradicts EVERYTHING before it.

"The climate isn't changing, because a farmer said..."

"The climate IS changing, because some farmers said..."

Come on!

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Thank you for proving the point.

Maori Aussie said:

Thank you for proving the point.

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Um - I think you proved it.

1. You asserted a farmer's tale - and did not document any scientific evidence. BOM have been using RTD's since the 1990's and they can measure down to -50 c. But even the old alcohol thermometers could go down to -70. (The older manual weather stations used alcohol for capturing the lows, alongside the mercury for capturing the highs.) So what you are asserting is just not true! What I asserted a few posts back about people just choosing to believe what they want to believe based on their social media echo-chamber is now triply confirmed by your contributions.
2. It's a tired old tale at that! You seemed to be trying to cast doubt on the temperature records - in a reverse 'urban heat island effect' argument. The 'temperature record is unreliable' is number 7 in the deniers hymn book.
3. Then you referred to your source again - farmer's tales - and this one I actually accept because it has been documented as a global phenomenon. Farmers DO have to move their crops and change their practices because the climate IS changing! But it kind of undermines your first paragraph which tried to undermine our confidence in the temperature record.
4. Even your first paragraph might be true - and it would not change the overwhelming statistics of what is happening on a planetwide basis. There are places in our warming world that seem to get colder as the world warms. This is according to the known physics of how various weather systems will shift and change - especially around the poles - so that the distribution of weather changes and we get prevailing winds that allow MORE snow to be dumped on some spots in Antarctica - making them colder - while the rest of it starts to melt! Or we get the weakening of the jet stream which means Canada and the Great Lakes regions of North America - like Chicago - where suddenly Artic weather can dump horrible blizzards in spring! One cold snap does not a cooling planet make!
5. BOM are watching the temperature stations and correcting when they find certain errors. The old charge of the 'Urban heat island effect' has been eliminated in the fantastic standardisation of the 10 square meters around the fenced in Stevenson screen.
   
6. Even when BOM or another agency corrects the data to deal with some faulty equipment, deniers come along and try to cast it as some kind of conspiracy to cook the books. The BOM can't win either way.

eclipsenow said:

Um - I think you proved it.

1. You asserted a farmer's tale - and did not document any scientific evidence. BOM have been using RTD's since the 1990's and they can measure down to -50 c. But even the old alcohol thermometers could go down to -70. (The older manual weather stations used alcohol for capturing the lows, alongside the mercury for capturing the highs.) So what you are asserting is just not true! What I asserted a few posts back about people just choosing to believe what they want to believe based on their social media echo-chamber is now triply confirmed by your contributions.
2. It's a tired old tale at that! You seemed to be trying to cast doubt on the temperature records - in a reverse 'urban heat island effect' argument. The 'temperature record is unreliable' is number 7 in the deniers hymn book.
3. Then you referred to your source again - farmer's tales - and this one I actually accept because it has been documented as a global phenomenon. Farmers DO have to move their crops and change their practices because the climate IS changing! But it kind of undermines your first paragraph which tried to undermine our confidence in the temperature record.
4. Even your first paragraph might be true - and it would not change the overwhelming statistics of what is happening on a planetwide basis. There are places in our warming world that seem to get colder as the world warms. This is according to the known physics of how various weather systems will shift and change - especially around the poles - so that the distribution of weather changes and we get prevailing winds that allow MORE snow to be dumped on some spots in Antarctica - making them colder - while the rest of it starts to melt! Or we get the weakening of the jet stream which means Canada and the Great Lakes regions of North America - like Chicago - where suddenly Artic weather can dump horrible blizzards in spring! One cold snap does not a cooling planet make!
5. BOM are watching the temperature stations and correcting when they find certain errors. The old charge of the 'Urban heat island effect' has been eliminated in the fantastic standardisation of the 10 square meters around the fenced in Stevenson screen.
   
6. Even when BOM or another agency corrects the data to deal with some faulty equipment, deniers come along and try to cast it as some kind of conspiracy to cook the books. The BOM can't win either way.

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Maori Aussie said:

11 Signs Someone Has a Lack of Self-Awareness (With Examples)

You probably work with people that lack self-awareness. Maybe you do as well. Here are 11 signs to recognize a lack of self-awareness.

www.trackinghappiness.com

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1. A rhetorical fallacy in which a speaker assumes that their opponent's argument is wrong, and instead of disproving it, condescendingly explains why their opponent would have come to that conclusion. quotations ▲
   • [1944, C[live] S[taples] Lewis, “'Bulverism': or, the Foundation of 20th Century Thought”, in Walter Hooper, editor, God in the Dock: Essays on Theology and Ethics, Grand Rapids, M.I.: William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company, published 1970, →ISBN, page 273:
     [Y]ou must show that a man is wrong before you start explaining why he is wrong. The modern method is to assume without discussion that he is wrong and then distract his attention from this (the only real issue) by busily explaining how he became so silly. In the course of the last fifteen years I have found this vice so common that I have had to invent a name for it. I call it Bulverism. Some day I am going to write the biography of its imaginary inventor, Ezekiel Bulver, whose destiny was determined at the age of five when he heard his mother say to his father—who had been maintaining that two sides of a triangle were together greater than the third—'Oh you say that because you are a man.']

In short - how lazy! Rather than demonstrate that I'm wrong - you fall into the cliché of trying to psychoanalyse why I am wrong.

But this is not even about me.
It's about you and those farmer's tales you trust in more than science.
Confirming everything I said about social media driving the population into their own little cotton-wool padded realities.