Doctor Claims SD Preventing Herd Immunty

eclipsenow said:

Nah, 0.1% is the flu.
The NYT would agree that it's hard to measure, but seems to settle around the 1% mark which is 10 times deadlier than the flu. But of course unlike the flu 10% to 20% require hospitalisation and will have lifelong lung damage, and many recovered Covid patients are lacking antigens or immunity. You can get it again and again!
Why We Don’t Know the True Death Rate for Covid-19

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I like the NYT but can't read that article. I've done a ton of reading and I'm telling you, your information is way off.
Thankfully, I don't have to link you to the studies I've been reading, because there are now flashy easy to read news stories about the results of antibody tests being done, like this one from New York that points to an IFR of 0.5%.

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

Thomas White said:

Can you elaborate on where this fits in with social distancing and herd immunity?

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If you are the Christian most claim to be you will trust YHWH and Yashuah ha'Mashiah in everything, even death of the natural body, looking forward with a longing heart toward it. Then Heard or other immunity, who cares? You Christian Life, like mine is more than skin deep.

th1bill said:

If you are the Christian most claim to be you will trust YHWH and Yashuah ha'Mashiah in everything, even death of the natural body, looking forward with a longing heart toward it. Then Heard or other immunity, who cares? You Christian Life, like mine is more than skin deep.

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Yet we are not just spirit, but thoroughly integrated physical beings as well. We don't 'have' a body and 'have' a spirit, we are body and spirit. We don't 'have' a soul, we are a soul, and at the resurrection that soul - that essential us - will be raised with perfectly functioning neurotransmitters and hormones and chemicals all doing what they were meant to do.

We have a duty to look after our physical health and mental health and that of our neighbours as well. It's not either trusting the Lord OR practising good health standards, but trusting the Lord by loving our neighbours and practising the best social distancing and hygiene we can! Or to look at it another way. Can you say you "Love the Lord your God with all your heart and strength and love your neighbour as yourself" if you drive a wedge between them?
"I'm sorry neighbours, but I trust the Lord SO MUCH I'm quite happy to help 1% of my community randomly DROWN as their lungs dissolve!"

sfs said:

That's mostly right, except that even without a vaccine, not everyone will get the virus -- once herd immunity is high enough, transmission will die away.

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Utterly, terribly, absolutely wrong.

If that had been true, polio would have vanished 2,000 years ago.

RDKirk said:

Utterly, terribly, absolutely wrong.

If that had been true, polio would have vanished 2,000 years ago.

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I hear you, but these things are complicated.
We did vanquish smallpox from the planet (apart from 2 last labs where scientists can study it.)
But WHO seems to be saying so many former Covid patients are not showing enough antigens to demonstrate immunity, so people can be reinfected. I used to think once we hit somewhere around 60% infection, the Corona Virus would lose all its vectors and not be able to spread and die out. But that's not true now. It can keep reinfecting the same people, and eventually percolate through the whole population - and then keep on going back around again! All the while, hospitalising 10% of the infected population and killing somewhere around 1%. Just nature, doing the rounds. Unless we do something about it!

God willing, one of the many thousands of (non-disinfectant! ) Covid 19 treatments will bear fruit and we'll be able to treat the Covid condition in a month or so, well before any vaccine ever comes out. "Prevention is better than a cure."
But if you can't get prevention, you'd better get a cure!

eclipsenow said:

Yet we are not just spirit, but thoroughly integrated physical beings as well. We don't 'have' a body and 'have' a spirit, we are body and spirit. We don't 'have' a soul, we are a soul, and at the resurrection that soul - that essential us - will be raised with perfectly functioning neurotransmitters and hormones and chemicals all doing what they were meant to do.

We have a duty to look after our physical health and mental health and that of our neighbours as well. It's not either trusting the Lord OR practising good health standards, but trusting the Lord by loving our neighbours and practising the best social distancing and hygiene we can! Or to look at it another way. Can you say you "Love the Lord your God with all your heart and strength and love your neighbour as yourself" if you drive a wedge between them?
"I'm sorry neighbours, but I trust the Lord SO MUCH I'm quite happy to help 1% of my community randomly DROWN as their lungs dissolve!"

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I have to admit, you are adept at imaginative sentence structure but 365 times YHWH Commands us not to worry.

[NOTE] Our Elohim did not use Magic Marker Highlighters, He did, however, highlight passages of the Holy Scriptures. I see Him repeat Himself I understand the thought is marked as important. If He commands a thing 3 or 4 times, I see it as very important and push myself even harder not to breach that command. I cannot begin to access with my feeble mind how strongly obedience to the command He repeats 365 times must bear on our Judgement at the Bema Seat Judgement of Yashuah ha'Mashiah.

For your own physical and mental self, I pray you take this one scripturally based lesson to heart. You see, everything, good and bad are under the hand of YHWH and all is used to His Glory. We can save none, not one. Rom 3

th1bill said:

I have to admit, you are adept at imaginative sentence structure but 365 times YHWH Commands us not to worry.

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No - you don't get to dodge out of your responsibility to love your neighbour that easily.

"Bema Seat Judgement of Yashuah ha'Mashiah"

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I wince when us white people try to be all hip and abuse ancient Hebrew. It sounds so pious and ultra-religious. You could just say Jesus!

or your own physical and mental self, I pray you take this one scripturally based lesson to heart. You see, everything, good and bad are under the hand of YHWH and all is used to His Glory. We can save none, not one. Rom 3

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I agree that we are not to worry excessively as if we had no hope, although even Christians are not exempt from the effects of living in this sinful world and can still suffer anxiety disorders as a mental health condition. There's no shame with that, as 'peace' is more an objective status between ourselves and God won at the cross of Jesus.

Once again, do you love your neighbour? Are you willing to sacrificially love your neighbour in this time, or are you abusing your Christian 'peace' to the detriment of others in just not caring?

See, there's a difference between worrying about our own personal fates and not giving a thought to others. There's a different between not worrying and not caring. One is a fruit of knowing our eternal destiny with God through Jesus, one is about being inconsiderate. One is Christian, one is from the pits of selfish rebellion in our own self-centred hearts - and may have even been planted there by the demonic.

So go ahead. Summon all the powers you have of hyper-religious Hebrew language (which actually sounds kind of camp to my sunburned Australian ears), and scald me for worrying so much. But I'm actually talking about caring!

Otherwise, how are we being loving? What's the difference between a navel-gazing Christian spirituality that's so self-focussed it may as well be on an eternal Christian retreat somewhere, and a swami-yogi meditating all day every day? What's the difference?

[NOTE] Our Elohim did not use Magic Marker Highlighters, He did, however, [/quote]
Sorry, I don't indulge hyper-religious language with a serious reply - it's just too weird. We trust in the same Lord, but the difference is I try to communicate in normal English where possible. You're just going to sound strange to all the non-Christians on this forum and confirm existing stereotypes about how weird Christians are. I'm just being honest.

Bema Seat Judgement of Yashuah ha'Mashiah.

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Yeah, like this.

eclipsenow said:

I hear you, but these things are complicated.
We did vanquish smallpox from the planet (apart from 2 last labs where scientists can study it.)

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Smallpox was vanquished by vaccination.

I know some people are conflating natural "herd immunity" with "herd immunity plus vaccination," but the context of this discussion is "herd immunity without vaccination," and realistically there is no such thing.

But WHO seems to be saying so many former Covid patients are not showing enough antigens to demonstrate immunity, so people can be reinfected. I used to think once we hit somewhere around 60% infection, the Corona Virus would lose all its vectors and not be able to spread and die out.

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No disease inflicting mankind has ever "died out" without a vigorous regimen of vaccination (where and when vaccines have become available). Never. It's never happened.

Whatever gave you the idea that "around 60% infection, the Corona Virus would lose all its vectors and not be able to spread and die out" is the misinformtion I'm arguing against.

RDKirk said:

Utterly, terribly, absolutely wrong.

If that had been true, polio would have vanished 2,000 years ago.

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You've misunderstood me. I wasn't trying to suggest that transmission would ever die away to zero -- just that if less than 1/R0 of the population is still susceptible, transmission falls to a low enough level that the epidemic winds down. You're still left with an endemic disease. My point was to correct the idea that everyone is going to be infected eventually regardless of what we do.

sfs said:

You've misunderstood me. I wasn't trying to suggest that transmission would ever die away to zero -- just that if less than 1/R0 of the population is still susceptible, transmission falls to a low enough level that the epidemic winds down. You're still left with an endemic disease. My point was to correct the idea that everyone is going to be infected eventually regardless of what we do.

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So we're going to start tolerating epidemics now? We're going to roll back medicine a hundred years?

RDKirk said:

So we're going to start tolerating epidemics now? We're going to roll back medicine a hundred years?

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Huh? Who suggested that? Somebody said that 'flattening the curve' reduced the burden on the health care system, but that even so nearly everyone would get infected in the end. The second part is not correct: flattening the curve can also reduce the total number of people who end up being infected. (Look up 'overshoot' in the context of epidemic mitigation.)

sfs said:

Huh? Who suggested that? Somebody said that 'flattening the curve' reduced the burden on the health care system, but that even so nearly everyone would get infected in the end. The second part is not correct: flattening the curve can also reduce the total number of people who end up being infected. (Look up 'overshoot' in the context of epidemic mitigation.)

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This virus is everywhere, it is mutating, some are suggesting there are already 40 strains and it has only been about 6 months. Korea has evidence that you can get infected again after having it once. The WHO has also come out and said this is the case. So then you will not ever eradicate this in one country as long as it is still present in many other countries. More and more it looks like the only effective response will be treatment.

Matthew 6:34

“Therefore do not be anxious about tomorrow, for tomorrow will be anxious for itself. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.”

ZNP said:

This virus is everywhere, it is mutating, some are suggesting there are already 40 strains and it has only been about 6 months. Korea has evidence that you can get infected again after having it once. The WHO has also come out and said this is the case. So then you will not ever eradicate this in one country as long as it is still present in many other countries. More and more it looks like the only effective response will be treatment.

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I suppose that was meant to be a response to what I wrote but it doesn't seem to have any connection to it.

sfs said:

I suppose that was meant to be a response to what I wrote but it doesn't seem to have any connection to it.

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My point is that flattening the curve is a strategy that buys time. If we aren't going to get a vaccine then you no longer have the option to say that everyone won't get infected. We are not in a position to prevent people from getting infected, the only viable strategy left is treatment.

eclipsenow said:

It can keep reinfecting the same people, and eventually percolate through the whole population - and then keep on going back around again! All the while, hospitalising 10% of the infected population and killing somewhere around 1%. Just nature, doing the rounds. Unless we do something about it!

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You'll be happy to know that your dire predictions are being shown to be wrong.
People once infected are being shown to have developed defensive antibodies. And the percentage of people infected who die or require hospitalization is a fraction of the numbers you keep posting. Some helpful reading linked below.

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM

Revealing S. Korean studies show antibodies could thwart COVID-19 reinfection, spread

Coronavirus antibodies found in 21% of New Yorkers in early testing

ZNP said:

My point is that flattening the curve is a strategy that buys time. If we aren't going to get a vaccine then you no longer have the option to say that everyone won't get infected.

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And my point is that that's wrong. Even in the absence of a vaccine, not everyone was infected with the 1918 influenza strain. Flattening the curve can reduce the number ultimately infected even without a vaccine.

Yes, we need a vaccine. Yes, we need effective treatment.

sfs said:

And my point is that that's wrong. Even in the absence of a vaccine, not everyone was infected with the 1918 influenza strain. Flattening the curve can reduce the number ultimately infected even without a vaccine.

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https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

Spanish Flu Pandemic Ends

By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

Almost 90 years later, in 2008, researchers announced they’d discovered what made the 1918 flu so deadly: A group of three genes enabled the virus to weaken a victim’s bronchial tubes and lungs and clear the way for bacterial pneumonia.

Since 1918, there have been several other influenza pandemics, although none as deadly. A flu pandemic from 1957 to 1958 killed around 2 million people worldwide, including some 70,000 people in the United States, and a pandemic from 1968 to 1969 killed approximately 1 million people, including some 34,000 Americans.

More than 12,000 Americans perished during the H1N1 (or “swine flu”) pandemic that occurred from 2009 to 2010. The novel coronavirus pandemic of 2020 is spreading around the world as countries race to find a cure for COVID 19 and citizens shelter in place in an attempt to avoid spreading the disease, which is particularly deadly because many carriers are asymptomatic for days before realizing they are infected.

According to this it came to an end because everyone had been infected. They didn't all die. The idea behind herd immunity is once you get to 90% immune it is very difficult for the virus to be transmitted and dies out. So no one is claiming you need 100% immune. However, what they are starting to claim is that you will not develop immunity to this virus because there are already somewhere between 9 and 40 strains. Being immune to one strain may help, but there is evidence that people can get reinfected with it.

ZNP said:

According to this it came to an end because everyone had been infected.

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No, it doesn't say that anywhere; it says that those who were infected either died or became immune. From the CDC:
"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus."

sfs said:

No, it doesn't say that anywhere; it says that those who were infected either died or became immune. From the CDC:
"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus."

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We were estimating that only 1/10th of the number of people infected with Covid19 a few weeks ago until we began doing randomized tests. These are a bunch of guesses. How is this estimate any better than the one we had a month ago about Covid?

ZNP said:

We were estimating that only 1/10th of the number of people infected with Covid19 a few weeks ago until we began doing randomized tests.

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Maybe you were. Every epidemiologist that I'm familiar with was estimating that a lot more than that were infected. The guesstimates I saw (and what I've been assuming) were that for a country like the US, where testing was largely confined to the seriously ill, the actual infection rate was ten to twenty times higher than confirmed cases.