Doctor Claims SD Preventing Herd Immunty

[Bobber]

Dr. David Katz: Coronavirus vaccine or herd immunity are only ways life can fully return to normal

"Dr. David Katz, the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center in Connecticut, has warned that while social distancing is helping to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, it is also preventing the development of the "herd immunity" needed by the public to resume their normal lives before a vaccine is developed.

Katz cited the case of some Asian nations who appeared to stop the spread with lockdown-style mitigation strategies, only to see an increase in cases once restrictions were relaxed."

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So I ask the question....is he right? By SD and locking down everything are we just holding back the inevitable? That is that this virus will work it's way through the culture whether we like it or not but we're just doing it a very slow way? Not to say a slow way isn't better so as not to flood the hospitals BUT if numbers start surging again should we really be panicked and in despair? Maybe we need to know we'd attain herd immunity eventually?

 

[SummerMadness]

The whole point of "flatten the curve" is that if everyone gets sick at the same time, then the hospitals will be over capacity, resulting in many people dying, that's what happened in Italy. Flattening the curve is about managing how quickly the virus spreads. Assuming you cannot stop it with an antiviral cocktail or vaccine, everyone will eventually get the virus. However, if you institute measures that slow its spread, then hospitals will not be overwhelmed, which means fewer people dying. The shelter in place orders were instituted to stem the rapid rise of cases/deaths, but to reopen, policies like expansive testing are needed so that there can be some return to normalcy. The testing is critical because it ensures that we can identify those who have contracted the virus and keep them out of the workforce.

 

[loveofourlord]

this is another case of the cure being a victim of it's own success, new york was only place to be really badly hit so people assume it's fine.

 

[tulc]

NM

 

[iluvatar5150]

NM

Can I put the most obnoxious ones at the top? How about my ex?

 

[Handmaid for Jesus]

Can I put the most obnoxious ones at the top? How about my ex?

LOL! Still carrying a grudge eh?

 

[dogs4thewin]

The whole point of "flatten the curve" is that if everyone gets sick at the same time, then the hospitals will be over capacity, resulting in many people dying, that's what happened in Italy. Flattening the curve is about managing how quickly the virus spreads. Assuming you cannot stop it with an antiviral cocktail or vaccine, everyone will eventually get the virus. However, if you institute measures that slow its spread, then hospitals will not be overwhelmed, which means fewer people dying. The shelter in place orders were instituted to stem the rapid rise of cases/deaths, but to reopen, policies like expansive testing are needed so that there can be some return to normalcy. The testing is critical because it ensures that we can identify those who have contracted the virus and keep them out of the workforce.

The problem though is we would either have to test people every day or just test people suspected of having the virse. Since a large percentage of people never actually get sick themselves but can spread it option B is not a good option and sense that would take a crazy number of tests to test everyone every day that is not likely to be a workable option.

 

[iluvatar5150]

LOL! Still carrying a grudge eh?

not enough to go out of my way, but if we're thinning the herd anyways...

 

[dogs4thewin]

this is another case of the cure being a victim of it's own success, new york was only place to be really badly hit so people assume it's fine.

Here's the deal though there is no denying that a handful of states have the most deaths ( new York has nearly half of all the deaths reported NJ has about 4k deaths. Il has had over 2k 6 other states have between and 2k closer to one k. That is a total of 9 states that have 1k or more deaths Total there are just under 40k deaths reported ( some of which are assumed deaths by the way. Looking at those numbers the fact is that many places were not very hard numbers the fact is that many places were not hard hit Even in states that were that does not mean that the state was hit evenly.

 

[loveofourlord]

Here's the deal though there is no denying that a handful of states have the most deaths ( new York has nearly half of all the deaths reported NJ has about 4k deaths. Il has had over 2k 6 other states have between and 2k closer to one k. That is a total of 9 states that have 1k or more deaths Total there are just under 40k deaths reported ( some of which are assumed deaths by the way. Looking at those numbers the fact is that many places were not very hard numbers the fact is that many places were not hard hit Even in states that were that does not mean that the state was hit evenly.

no we get that, what were saying is, it's only a matter of time before outbreaks hit them too, and they are likly to get hit just as proportionally in time.

 

[sfs]

Flattening the curve is about managing how quickly the virus spreads. Assuming you cannot stop it with an antiviral cocktail or vaccine, everyone will eventually get the virus. However, if you institute measures that slow its spread, then hospitals will not be overwhelmed, which means fewer people dying.

That's mostly right, except that even without a vaccine, not everyone will get the virus -- once herd immunity is high enough, transmission will die away. The 1918 flu epidemic showed that cities that succeeded in flattening the curve had fewer deaths overall than other cities. Plus, delaying infections give doctors and researchers more time to figure out possible therapeutics and how best to manage COVID patients. But what exactly the balance should be between slowing transmission and having a functioning society is far from clear.

 

[dogs4thewin]

no we get that, what were saying is, it's only a matter of time before outbreaks hit them too, and they are likly to get hit just as proportionally in time.

I happen to be in GA. Now there are 159 counties in the state of that less than a third have 100 cases or more ( and GA does not track recovery numbers which of course means that the numbers are not actuate. I live in a rural county and I actually noticed that population wise mine is one of the worst counties around.

 

[loveofourlord]

I happen to be in GA. Now there are 159 counties in the state of that less than a third have 100 cases or more ( and GA does not track recovery numbers which of course means that the numbers are not actuate. I live in a rural county and I actually noticed that population wise mine is one of the worst counties around.

how is the compliance numbers your seeing, or noticing in GA?

 

[dogs4thewin]

how is the compliance numbers your seeing, or noticing in GA?

From what I hear it is pretty bad, but then again I have been out for a total of MAYBE six hours in a month and a half. I have noticed that the numbers of deaths have gone down some.

 

[Kaon]

Dr. David Katz: Coronavirus vaccine or herd immunity are only ways life can fully return to normal

"Dr. David Katz, the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center in Connecticut, has warned that while social distancing is helping to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, it is also preventing the development of the "herd immunity" needed by the public to resume their normal lives before a vaccine is developed.

Katz cited the case of some Asian nations who appeared to stop the spread with lockdown-style mitigation strategies, only to see an increase in cases once restrictions were relaxed."

****************************************************************

So I ask the question....is he right? By SD and locking down everything are we just holding back the inevitable? That is that this virus will work it's way through the culture whether we like it or not but we're just doing it a very slow way? Not to say a slow way isn't better so as not to flood the hospitals BUT if numbers start surging again should we really be panicked and in despair? Maybe we need to know we'd attain herd immunity eventually?

SD if done 100% exact will likely bring herd mentality, but the action is certainly herd mentality, no?

The world will never go back to normal because of what we have already done. SD alone is a psychological paradigm shift, and will definitely be applied to every facet of life in the future (government, social event planning, education, sports, etc.).

 

[Bobber]

SD if done 100% exact will likely bring herd mentality, but the action is certainly herd mentality, no?

The world will never go back to normal because of what we have already done. SD alone is a psychological paradigm shift, and will definitely be applied to every facet of life in the future (government, social event planning, education, sports, etc.).

Well what do you know! No more fights in hockey.

 

[th1bill]

We that have Ruach, a.k.a. the Holy Spirit, living in us, directing our lives have the perfect, calming message. I know that all of the Lost have twisted all of Scripture around their favorite verse, Matthew 7:1. The beginning issue is that Matthew 7:1 is not a stand alone verse nor does it modify the rest of scripture.

Verse one is seen exercised by looking at the Moderation of any forum. Moderators do not and must never look the other way and if you feel led by Ruach, neither must you! Not only must you and I judge, the first six verses command how we must judge.

Matthew 7 (ASV)
7 Judge not, that ye be not judged. 2 For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured unto you. 3 And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? 4 Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me cast out the mote out of thine eye; and lo, the beam is in thine own eye? 5 Thou hypocrite, cast out first the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.

6 Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast your pearls before the swine, lest haply they trample them under their feet, and turn and rend you.

The very first thing we, as judges must do is to rid our lives of sin and become the image that others will wish to be and when we must judge some fruit as rotten, do so with love and forgiveness. Turn even the negative into a positive.

 

[Handmaid for Jesus]

The very first thing we, as judges must do is to rid our lives of sin

Lord Jesus already washed away our sin.

 

[Kaon]

Well what do you know! No more fights in hockey.

I think you make a good point in jest, though. The amount of blood drawn in sports past will be problematic in a world going through a pandemic.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Maybe we need to know we'd attain herd immunity eventually?

When you get the vaccine ready and people vaccinated you have herd immunity.

Or after the virus goes through planet for few times.

We hope to slow the virus so the deaths until we wait for the first option to happen would be less than what we could expect from the second option if no action was taken.

Eventually we will have both the vaccine and Covid19 around for many years and great herd immunity.

Of course then some new pandemic comes around and we do this whole thing again.

Hopefully it is something less contagious next time.