THE COMING GRAND SHIFT IN MIDDLE EAST ALLIANCES
Forgive me for rambling a bit on this matter. I will start with a quick word on Iraq, before speaking in depth about the changing roles of Iran and Russia that I believe are on the way.
Iraq backs Egypt crackdown on Morsi supporters
AFP | Aug 19, 2013, 06.49 AM IST
"BAGHDAD: Iraq's premier backed the Egyptian military crackdown on supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi in a statement on Sunday, the latest Arab leader to back the operation. Nuri al-Maliki appealed for "self-restraint" but said Baghdad stood with the Egyptian government, describing its moves against the Muslim Brotherhood as efforts to impose law and order."
-- Iraq backs Egypt crackdown on Morsi supporters - The Times of India
This reinforces what I have been saying: The Arab world supports the new government, except Tunisia and Gaza.
Meanwhile, Dr. Naser al-Tamimi gives compelling reasons why the RUSSIANS should be and are drawing closer to the Saudis and to the current Egyptian government; but they do not propose that the Russians SEVER their ties with the SYRIAN government. As long as the Assad regime in Syria is in hock to Hizbullah and Iran, Russia cannot dump Iran in favor of the Arabs.
I don't believe love triangles can last long in international politics: Either the Russians will continue to back Assad, and accept the Iranian baggage that entails, or they will back the Saudis and Egyptians, and lose their naval base in Syria. They could get even better naval facilities in exchange, in Alexandria; but they have so far not shown an inclination to do so.
The best of both worlds, for the Russians, would be if Syria's Assad somehow dumped his Iranian masters. At the moment, he doesn't appear strong enough to do that. The Pro-Assad Syrians are clearly on the same side as the Saudis concerning Egypt:
August 15, 2013, 9:30 AM
Syrians See Egypt Through The Lens Of Their Own Struggle
-- Syrians See Egypt Through The Lens Of Their Own Struggle - Middle East Real Time - WSJ
(and NOT on the side of the Iranians, who have condemned the Sissi-backed government). Assad will not openly break with Iran, though, unless the Russians (and Saudis??) could somehow stand in the gap and protect him from reprisals by Hizbullah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. If Russia were to tip the balance, say, by supplying advanced weapons to Syria, though, this would put them into direct conflict with Israel:
Israel stays clear of Egyptian crisis, fearing Russian militarys return to a second border after Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report August 19, 2013, 11:45 AM (IDT)
-- Israel stays clear of Egyptian crisis, fearing Russian militaryâs return to a second border after Syria
I hope I haven't made this overly complicated. Israel seems increasingly caught between the rock and the hard place. At the moment, they and the Ramallah Arabs are both tacitly on the Saudi side; and both are ingratiating the Americans as well by holding sham peace negotiations with each other. If the Saudis and Egyptians would somehow drift more into the Soviet camp, then Jordan and Israel would probably reflexively move deeper into the clutches of the Americans. The last time the region was divided anywhere along these lines was in the 1960s; but then, both Saudi Arabia and Iran were allied with the US. That is definitely NOT the case now, nor will it be in the future.
The best-case scenario for Israel, would probably be if the Syrians did dump the Iranians, Assad and Russia did sidle up alongside Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and that this new Saudi-Russian alliance pursued moderate policies toward Israel. In all likelihood, Iran would then ally itself with Turkey, in an Ezekiel 38-39-type alliance. If I had to put money on it, in fact, I would bet that this will be the situation in perhaps two years.
Forgive me for rambling a bit on this matter. I will start with a quick word on Iraq, before speaking in depth about the changing roles of Iran and Russia that I believe are on the way.
Iraq backs Egypt crackdown on Morsi supporters
AFP | Aug 19, 2013, 06.49 AM IST
"BAGHDAD: Iraq's premier backed the Egyptian military crackdown on supporters of ousted president Mohamed Morsi in a statement on Sunday, the latest Arab leader to back the operation. Nuri al-Maliki appealed for "self-restraint" but said Baghdad stood with the Egyptian government, describing its moves against the Muslim Brotherhood as efforts to impose law and order."
-- Iraq backs Egypt crackdown on Morsi supporters - The Times of India
This reinforces what I have been saying: The Arab world supports the new government, except Tunisia and Gaza.
Meanwhile, Dr. Naser al-Tamimi gives compelling reasons why the RUSSIANS should be and are drawing closer to the Saudis and to the current Egyptian government; but they do not propose that the Russians SEVER their ties with the SYRIAN government. As long as the Assad regime in Syria is in hock to Hizbullah and Iran, Russia cannot dump Iran in favor of the Arabs.
I don't believe love triangles can last long in international politics: Either the Russians will continue to back Assad, and accept the Iranian baggage that entails, or they will back the Saudis and Egyptians, and lose their naval base in Syria. They could get even better naval facilities in exchange, in Alexandria; but they have so far not shown an inclination to do so.
The best of both worlds, for the Russians, would be if Syria's Assad somehow dumped his Iranian masters. At the moment, he doesn't appear strong enough to do that. The Pro-Assad Syrians are clearly on the same side as the Saudis concerning Egypt:
August 15, 2013, 9:30 AM
Syrians See Egypt Through The Lens Of Their Own Struggle
-- Syrians See Egypt Through The Lens Of Their Own Struggle - Middle East Real Time - WSJ
(and NOT on the side of the Iranians, who have condemned the Sissi-backed government). Assad will not openly break with Iran, though, unless the Russians (and Saudis??) could somehow stand in the gap and protect him from reprisals by Hizbullah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. If Russia were to tip the balance, say, by supplying advanced weapons to Syria, though, this would put them into direct conflict with Israel:
Israel stays clear of Egyptian crisis, fearing Russian militarys return to a second border after Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report August 19, 2013, 11:45 AM (IDT)
-- Israel stays clear of Egyptian crisis, fearing Russian militaryâs return to a second border after Syria
I hope I haven't made this overly complicated. Israel seems increasingly caught between the rock and the hard place. At the moment, they and the Ramallah Arabs are both tacitly on the Saudi side; and both are ingratiating the Americans as well by holding sham peace negotiations with each other. If the Saudis and Egyptians would somehow drift more into the Soviet camp, then Jordan and Israel would probably reflexively move deeper into the clutches of the Americans. The last time the region was divided anywhere along these lines was in the 1960s; but then, both Saudi Arabia and Iran were allied with the US. That is definitely NOT the case now, nor will it be in the future.
The best-case scenario for Israel, would probably be if the Syrians did dump the Iranians, Assad and Russia did sidle up alongside Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and that this new Saudi-Russian alliance pursued moderate policies toward Israel. In all likelihood, Iran would then ally itself with Turkey, in an Ezekiel 38-39-type alliance. If I had to put money on it, in fact, I would bet that this will be the situation in perhaps two years.
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