Trump Slams ABC for Reporting His Mistaken Statement that Dorian Could Affect Alabama

[Root of Jesse]

This is almost completely untrue. At the time that Trump wrote his tweet, on September 1, the forecast and modeling clearly showed that the hurricane would turn north and follow the coast up to the Carolinas. This was not a "nobody knows" scenario. There was a zero percent chance at that time of Alabama being affected.

Now, it's true that a few days before (August 28th/29th), a some models did indicate the possibility that Dorian would head into the Gulf, but different models showed different possibilities, and models change on a daily - and even hourly - basis. You can't go off of a single model, and models from a few days before are no longer going to be accurate.

Honestly, it's not that big of a deal that Trump screwed it up. It happens - he saw the model(s) with Alabama in the projected path and thought it was worth mentioning. The concerning thing is that, rather than admitting he was wrong when corrected, he doubled down and continues to do so.

EVERY hurricane tracking prediction is a shot in the dark. Nobody really knows where they're going and what impact they will have. It wasn't a zero percent chance that the hurricane would cross the state of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
Then, after you said it wasn't a nobody knows scenario, you say that models change on a daily/hourly basis. I agree with you, but you contradicted yourself.
I know it's not that big a deal. Even the 57 states comment by Obama wasn't a big deal.
The concerning fact is that the MSM media set it up as a gotcha, when clearly it wasn't.

 

[Root of Jesse]

At the time, the best information from our own National Weather Service said it would "NOT" happen.

Our own NWS? ROTFL.

 

[ananda]

You are. You're the one pushing fake news. Again, Trump published his tweet on the morning of 9/1. Your archived link is from 8/30. By 5:00 pm 8/31, the storm was forecast to steer clear east of there:

HURRICANE DORIAN

#fakenews

I see the green still touching Alabama in your link.

 

[Root of Jesse]

You are. You're the one pushing fake news. Again, Trump published his tweet on the morning of 9/1. Your archived link is from 8/30. By 5:00 pm 8/31, the storm was forecast to steer clear east of there:

HURRICANE DORIAN

And forecasts can't change...

 

[comana]

The only reason there is still discussion over this is because Trump himself keeps bringing it up. He never learned the fine art of letting things go.

 

[iluvatar5150]

#fakenews

I see the green still touching Alabama in your link.

That green represents a 5-10% chance of tropical storm-force winds.

Remember, Trump's tweet said, "In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated."

5-10% chance of tropical storm winds is not being "hit much harder than anticipated".

He screwed up.

And forecasts can't change...

In this case, not to the west, they don;t.

 

[ananda]

That green represents a 5-10% chance of tropical storm-force winds.

Remember, Trump's tweet said, "In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated."

5-10% chance of tropical storm winds is not being "hit much harder than anticipated".

He screwed up.

It depends on what he meant by "anticipated".

 

[essentialsaltes]

Our own NWS? ROTFL.

What's so funny? Who should Trump consult about the weather? Putin's Weather Service?

 

[GoldenBoy89]

This is just sad you guys, really.

What do you get in defending an erroneous forecast that isn’t even relevant anymore?

 

[iluvatar5150]

It depends on what he meant by "anticipated".

Bill Clinton would be proud.

The storm was moving away from Alabama. There’s no way that represents an elevated risk.

 

[ananda]

Bill Clinton would be proud.

Learn from the best, right?

The storm was moving away from Alabama. There’s no way that represents an elevated risk.

5-10%+ is technically elevated.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Learn from the best, right?

5-10%+ is technically elevated.

Not from where it had been earlier, it isn’t. Your link showed Alabama having a higher risk.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Praying for a quick recovery for the people of Alabama who lost everything in the devastating hurricane.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Alabama could have been affected, according to previous NOAA advisories.

Who is pushing #fakenews?

Correct. However, forecasts change daily, and the most current forecast when Trump wrote that tweet showed Dorian turning north:
https://web.archive.org/web/20190831235432/https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages

Again, the issue isn't that he got it wrong. People make mistakes all the time, including people in power. It's that, when his error was pointed out, he doubled down rather than issuing a correction or apologizing for his mistake.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

EVERY hurricane tracking prediction is a shot in the dark. Nobody really knows where they're going and what impact they will have. It wasn't a zero percent chance that the hurricane would cross the state of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
Then, after you said it wasn't a nobody knows scenario, you say that models change on a daily/hourly basis. I agree with you, but you contradicted yourself.

To clarify, they IMPROVE on a day-to-day basis. The closer you get to an event, the more accurate the predictions are and the smaller the deviations between projected tracks. Furthermore, it's much easier to say where a hurricane won't go than to predict where it will - you can say that it will be somewhere within a projected path without knowing exactly where, while at the same time being 100% certain that it won't deviate from that path within a certain timeframe. By the time Trump made that tweet, the chances of the hurricane veering into Alabama were zero, barring acts of God or some absurd anomalous shift in weather patterns.

The concerning fact is that the MSM media set it up as a gotcha, when clearly it wasn't.

No, they didn't. Trump made the tweet of his own volition - not in response to any request. It elicited minor comment - until Trump insisted that he was correct and doubled down on his faulty analysis.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Trump called a Fox reporter into the Oval Office to argue he wasn't wrong about Alabama.

Glad he's focusing on the important issues of the day.

[Fox News senior White House correspondent John] Roberts claimed in his email that he pointed out to the President that by the time of his tweet warning Alabama and other states of the storm -- 10:51 am ET on Sunday -- Dorian's projected trajectory had moved much farther east and was no longer including any part of Alabama.

The President "seemed to agree that the forecast track had moved -- but he was adamant that at some point, Alabama was at risk," Roberts wrote. "He also reminded that on occasions in the past, forecast tracks have changed dramatically."

A White House aide familiar with the Oval Office meeting with Roberts said that Trump also voiced his displeasure about Fox News anchor Shepard Smith's skeptical reporting about the Alabama map.

 

[DaisyDay]

EVERY hurricane tracking prediction is a shot in the dark. Nobody really knows where they're going and what impact they will have.

It's not a shot in the dark. They've gotten pretty good at predicting and with being able to warn people days ahead of time.

It wasn't a zero percent chance that the hurricane would cross the state of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

By the time Donald tweeted it, it was pretty close to zero.

Then, after you said it wasn't a nobody knows scenario, you say that models change on a daily/hourly basis. I agree with you, but you contradicted yourself.

Or a misunderstanding on your part.

I know it's not that big a deal. Even the 57 states comment by Obama wasn't a big deal.

It would have been a big deal if he had denied it or insisted that there are 57 states and that the media were out to get him.

The concerning fact is that the MSM media set it up as a gotcha, when clearly it wasn't.

Now how did they do that? How did they get Donald to warn Alabama, then get the National Weather Service to contradict him and then get Donald to haul out that ridiculous sharpie-altered weather map?

 

[wing2000]

Never stand between the climate change theorists and their egos, either. .

Never stand between a Narcissist and his weather forecasting.....unless, of course, you are the National Weather Service:

NWS Birmingham‏Verified account @NWSBirmingham
Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east. #alwx
8:11 AM - 1 Sep 2019
NWS Birmingham on Twitter

Four days later, the POTUS is still refusing to admit he was wrong.

I think it's accurate to state the NWS has NEVER had to correct comments by the POTUS.

 

[cow451]

He doesn't give one diddly dang to the fact that he's caused folks in Alabama to get scared over nothing. I used to live right on the GA-AL border, know lots of folks throughout the state. They didn't just roll their eyes at Donald being Donald. They took it as them needing to prepare for a hurricane like never seen before (on account of Donald making it sound that way, forgetting about the previous cat 5s).

Folks on the coastal areas planning on evacuating to Alabama paused in their tracks. All on account of Donald feeling the need to be right when he's flat-out dead wrong. Literally dead wrong.

Ummmm....... why would anyone want to evacuate to Alabama for any reason?

 

[Allandavid]

Never stand between the climate change theorists and their egos, either. The fact is that, at the time of the remark, nobody knew where Dorian was headed, what her strength might be, or the impact she would have. Some models did suggest that she would cross into the Gulf of Mexico, which means that coastal Alabama could have been impacted.

Completely untrue...

“At the time of the remark”, it was already known that Alabama would not be in play! Donnie was using a map that was already four days old...at that time!

His giant ego simply cannot permit him to admit to error, no matter how minor....it’s why he had to fudge the weather map with a sharpie...!