First you were complaining that I didn't include structurally distinct insect wings into my calculations. Now, after I included a trillion of them, although observation shows that there are not even a thousand, let alone a trillion of structurally distinct ways to occupy a particular niche, you complain that this number is not justified. Of course the number is justified, and not only justified, but also way too generous towards your theory. It is just that your a prior commitment to atheism can't allow this theory to be false, so you are inventing all sorts of excuses as to why my calculations are wrong.
Regarding you complain about evolving a particular gross morphology. Like I have said, it is gross morphology what occupies niches in nature. For that reason, gross morphology is required to occupy a forest niche. The same is true for niches within the organism, for e.g. those that require RNA splicing system. This system consists of at least five sub functions: to recognize pre-mRNA molecule and its intron-exon boundaries, to cut it, to rearrange the cut parts, to join these parts, and finally, to release the mRNA molecule. Only when genes that code for all five subfunctions exist, only then a pre-mRNA molecule can be properly processed to an mRNA molecule, and only then the RNA splicing system has an adaptive feature upon which natural selection can act. In other words, a niche that requiers RNA splicing system cannot be occupied until all requisite components of this system are in place, which is the equivalent of "gross morphology". Regarding the number of these components, splicing function consists of over 200 proteins -
Protein-free spliceosomal snRNAs catalyze a reaction that resembles the first step of splicing
Let's now move away from our hypothetical and primitive insect wings and calculate the time required to find the genome with information for RNA splicing system.
If we again assume 60% replacement tolerance... NO. Let's assume 90% replacement tolerance, which means that given the average eukaryotic gene size of 1,346 bp, when our 200 genes code for functional RNA splicing system, 242,280 of their 269,200 nucleotides can undergo random replacements and this would still not be detrimental for the function. So, with 90% replacement tolerance, we get 4^(200*1,346*0.9) or ≈10^145,867 DNA sequences that will code for functional RNA splicing system, and ≈10^162,067 that won't. Meaning, for every functional sequence there are ≈10^16,200 nonfunctional ones.
If we assume that organisms are able to generate new DNA sequences once every Planck time and that their number is equal to the number of atoms comprising the Earth’s total mass, the time required to find the genome with information for RNA splicing system would be 10^16,200/3.16*10^101≈10^16,099 years. If we allow for a trillion distinct RNA splicing systems, although only one exists in nature, this reduces the waiting time to
10^16,075 years.
In other words, even if every atom that comprises the Earth were an organism, reproducing extremely fast from the Big Bang until the end of the universe (when atoms and Earth no longer exist), they would still need a still far greater amount of time – more than fifteen thousand orders of magnitude longer – to have even a 1 in 10^850 chance of success. To put it another way, for a one in a trillion chance of success, there would need to be 10^16,038 Earths made of organisms. The probability of RNA splicing system is therefore
zero in any operational sense of an event, and the evolution theory is the stupidest thing humans ever invented.