Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

[Hans Blaster]

The satellite graphs I not rounded off going from high point to high point like the ground data recievers do from NASA and NOAA. The satellite graphs plot and are updated using new data every month. They show all the ups and downs with new data every.month. That is why I trust that there is no cherry picking and fudging like the ground data recievers do.

I am certain that the science for climate change is and needs to be updated and debated constantly.

The basic idea of or theroy of agw has always been In question that is why it's only a theroy
. thanks

As I suspected, you were looking to see the charts with the next monthly average added. Unfortunately, climate data operates on much longer periods than one month and month-to-month variations are not relevant (nor frankly are year-to-year variations for any given month), only longer trends.

 

[Hans Blaster]

The reason I am keeping my eye on the teamperature graphs especially the satellite graphs is because this modern warming is so far similar to the other warmings we have had in the past. This warming is so far not quite as warm as the other warmings especially the Holocene maximums. It's a familiar pattern though, a rapid rise in temperature (ten years), then a levelling off for hundredths of years, usually followed by a cooler period. So time will tell if we can see any difference between the five warmings we have had.

I'm not really interested in global temperature leveling for a few hundredths of a year. (Though I am interested in the local temperature on that scale.)

 

[lordjeff]

Cure to everything, no, but for ground transportation, probably.

Having everyone charge up their cars at night plugged into there home charger would be a *good* thing. Much of our electric power comes from "base plants" that take a long time to change their outputs (coal, nuclear, steady wind sources, and to a lesser extent hydroelectric). Because there is less demand for electricity in the evening (and weekends) due to lower commercial and industrial activity, there is effectively excess power available outside normal working hours. Slow charging of electric cars would be a good use of this baseline power.

[Oh, and coal isn't a hydrocarbon, there's no hydrogen in it, just carbon, and it's dead as a power source anyway.]

Nighttime is when the grid cools down. Given that a huge populace of electric cars will displace them to midnight etc, there will an increased demand for electricity where it may be needed in more essential places such as hospitals, national security, airports/subways, grocery stores, gas stations, street lights, nursing homes. There is not going to be more electricity available there is going to be less electricity available.

 

[lordjeff]

People on the left have tried to communicate that if you have X amount of co2 in the air, that it automatically implies a doubling of temperature which is incorrect & we have seen this since 2010. There is no doubling of temperature. That being said, a number of these oil companies anyhow had started to diversity. Europe has less population & has already resorted to differentiation of the grid so I don't see where there is going to an increase in CO2. In the USA today there is a new sustainability model that bonds one's housing-job-leisure time-all w/in a closer proximity of each other.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Nighttime is when the grid cools down. Given that a huge populace of electric cars will displace them to midnight etc, there will an increased demand for electricity where it may be needed in more essential places such as hospitals, national security, airports/subways, grocery stores, gas stations, street lights, nursing homes. There is not going to be more electricity available there is going to be less electricity available.

You really don't know what you're talking about, do you.

Have you never heard of time-of-day metering for electricity? When that is used, the cost is lower at night and on weekends. I wonder why that is...

 

[Hans Blaster]

People on the left have tried to communicate that if you have X amount of co2 in the air, that it automatically implies a doubling of temperature which is incorrect & we have seen this since 2010. There is no doubling of temperature. That being said, a number of these oil companies anyhow had started to diversity. Europe has less population & has already resorted to differentiation of the grid so I don't see where there is going to an increase in CO2. In the USA today there is a new sustainability model that bonds one's housing-job-leisure time-all w/in a closer proximity of each other.

You keep misspelling "climatologist" and "scientists" as "L-E-F-T-I-S-T". None of this has anything to do with politics. (Note, that we are not talking about mitigation, or response, only about the impact of CO2 levels on the climate.)

Second who said anything about "doubling the temperature"? The only scale on which doubling temperature has any physical meaning is an absolute scale where the coldest possible temperature is 0 and negative temperatures are not possible. "room temperature" is about 300 K, (mean global temperature is a little lower, about 290 K, I think) doubling that gives 600 K (or 580 if you like), and that's really hot. My oven doesn't go up that high.

 

[lordjeff]

We know that if you secure that package with one's local electrical utility, the cost is generally lower at night, but if you add volume, & I am talking about thousands upon thousands upon thousands of cars that will have to recharge when they home from their 9-5, their 3-11, & then have to recharge at odd ball hours you are adding demand back on the grid. And when you have increased demand, the grid moves a bit slower. We are a country of 330 million people. If we have then say 80 million vehicles (personal) & then those used by govt or business, you can't simply think that everybody plugs in when they get home from work & y'all be ready to go at 8 AM the next morning. The drag on the grid will make the charging longer. Some people will then reason instead of plugging in at 5 pm when they get home, they may find they have to plug in at midnight. But lots of other people have that same reasoning; point is you have not gained any edge of time. People still have to go to work. God I can't imagine if it pushes society to where people have to then get up & leave for work at 4 am. So you will have demand all around the 24 hour clock. And still don't forget that electric charge is still likely coming from coal or natural gas. And with that many millions of vehicles plugged in at once, again that stresses the grid. If it gets too much stress, it runs out of supply so the company has to purchase power from somewhere else. Demand equals higher price. I just don't see the American people wanting to pay $1000 a month for their electricity bill-do you? Now where renewables come is to take stress off the grid--but when you're talking 2 major sectors of societal life: transport & heating/cooling, there is no way after a century of innovation, the american people are going to want to give that up & be inconvenienced.

 

[lordjeff]

You keep misspelling "climatologist" and "scientists" as "L-E-F-T-I-S-T". None of this has anything to do with politics. (Note, that we are not talking about mitigation, or response, only about the impact of CO2 levels on the climate.)

Second who said anything about "doubling the temperature"? The only scale on which doubling temperature has any physical meaning is an absolute scale where the coldest possible temperature is 0 and negative temperatures are not possible. "room temperature" is about 300 K, (mean global temperature is a little lower, about 290 K, I think) doubling that gives 600 K (or 580 if you like), and that's really hot. My oven doesn't go up that high.

The media & its promoters like Gore & Moore are trying to persuade people that if CO2 ppm doubles then it likely corresponds to a geometric mean or exponential, which it does not. That is how they scare people. The public absorbs it because the public would not be expected to understand the distinctions between arithmetic means, geometric means, exponentials, & logarithmics. As I have stated because we have 3 large repositories for absorption, the temp just can't climb that high given the current position of the continents. The world would be better off trying to preserve the forests seeing that it only requires planting.

 

[lordjeff]

I think people sometimes forget that our society does not necessarily stop work at 5 pm. Our aerospace industries are 24 hrs. We have supermarkets, malls, convenience marts, casinos that are 24 hrs a day. One can a certain amount of financial transactions all day- so someone is on call. The medical sector is 24-7. National security is 24-7. Large vehicular transport runs 24-7 so it's not like electrical use goes to zero. Increasingly even students are now wired up somehow to do schoolwork so that is an addition to the demand of electricity.

 

[Hans Blaster]

We know that if you secure that package with one's local electrical utility, the cost is generally lower at night, but if you add volume, & I am talking about thousands upon thousands upon thousands of cars that will have to recharge when they home from their 9-5, their 3-11, & then have to recharge at odd ball hours you are adding demand back on the grid. And when you have increased demand, the grid moves a bit slower. We are a country of 330 million people. If we have then say 80 million vehicles (personal) & then those used by govt or business, you can't simply think that everybody plugs in when they get home from work & y'all be ready to go at 8 AM the next morning. The drag on the grid will make the charging longer. Some people will then reason instead of plugging in at 5 pm when they get home, they may find they have to plug in at midnight. But lots of other people have that same reasoning; point is you have not gained any edge of time. People still have to go to work. God I can't imagine if it pushes society to where people have to then get up & leave for work at 4 am. So you will have demand all around the 24 hour clock. And still don't forget that electric charge is still likely coming from coal or natural gas. And with that many millions of vehicles plugged in at once, again that stresses the grid. If it gets too much stress, it runs out of supply so the company has to purchase power from somewhere else. Demand equals higher price. I just don't see the American people wanting to pay $1000 a month for their electricity bill-do you? Now where renewables come is to take stress off the grid--but when you're talking 2 major sectors of societal life: transport & heating/cooling, there is no way after a century of innovation, the american people are going to want to give that up & be inconvenienced.

So you *are* aware of time variation in electrical demand. Yeah!

I'm not saying the capacity exists to fully replace all IC cars with electric today, or that the residential grids are necessarily adequate to handle full electric car charging in all homes. Variable pricing is driven by the need for generation capacity and total usage. The commercial usage peaks in the work hours (running factories, cooling offices, etc.) Residential usage peaks in the morning and early evening. The residential grid may need some upgrades and "smart grid" technologies so the power company can tailor charging profiles to grid and generation capacity are almost certainly needed. (I don't have an electric car, but I'm pretty sure that even empty batteries can charge in 12 hours on a 15 A circuit.) Maybe you'll come home and plug in your car and the charger will check the charge level and determine that it needs 34 A-hours to top off and you'll enter that you'd like it charged by 8 AM and the power company will get that information and schedule your charging so that it balances with the other cars for both the local distribution grid and the generation level.

 

[Hans Blaster]

I think people sometimes forget that our society does not necessarily stop work at 5 pm. Our aerospace industries are 24 hrs. We have supermarkets, malls, convenience marts, casinos that are 24 hrs a day. One can a certain amount of financial transactions all day- so someone is on call. The medical sector is 24-7. National security is 24-7. Large vehicular transport runs 24-7 so it's not like electrical use goes to zero. Increasingly even students are now wired up somehow to do schoolwork so that is an addition to the demand of electricity.

No one said it did. It's not that power usage goes to almost zero, its that it is less in the "off hours" and that is available for other uses. Years ago I used to work night shift in a plant that used quite a bit of power seasonally on a 20-hours/7-day schedule.

Trying to remember why this thread has diverted...

Oh yeah, in post #332 you posted about batteries not being the solution. I can't see why you added that to the conversation unless it was my parenthetic comment about electric car sales during the pandemic in post #314.

 

[greatcloudlives]

The urban heat island effect . My contention is that the global temperature graphs are skewed to be warmer because of the uhi of all large cities in the world.

Wikipedia urban heat island

The temperature graphs are consistently higher in cities all over the world because of the urban heat island effect. The rural areas and subburban too, much larger In area than the cities, not to mention the forrests and mountains of the earth are cooler than cities in the world.

This difference between cities and surrounding areas causes the graphs for the globe to be skewed to warmer temps than without the city temperatures, raising the temperature for the whole earth. The earth is not warming up as much as we thought.

 

[greatcloudlives]

Edit for post #352 go to Wikipedia and type in -urban heat island.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Edit for post #352 go to Wikipedia and type in -urban heat island.

If you can't paste links then maybe you should stop trying. Just a hopeful thought.

The hardest part is getting the link itself into your clipboard (the copy part of copy-past), as a lot of the browsers seem to want to protect users from actual URL. I browse old school so the URL is always visible for the page I'm on.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

The media & its promoters like Gore & Moore are trying to persuade people that if CO2 ppm doubles then it likely corresponds to a geometric mean or exponential, which it does not. That is how they scare people. The public absorbs it because the public would not be expected to understand the distinctions between arithmetic means, geometric means, exponentials, & logarithmics.

I take it you consider yourself a member of the public, because you don't appear to understand what a geometric mean is and how it differs from an exponential...

 

[greatcloudlives]

I am going to move over to the UHI effect thread. I will check back with you later.

 

[lordjeff]

I take it you consider yourself a member of the public, because you don't appear to understand what a geometric mean is and how it differs from an exponential...

I'm a mathematician. You see what I'm saying is if Al Gore says 500 gigatons of CO2 induced say a 1.3 degree increase then surely 1000 gigatons must mean the increase will be 2.6. That is how the public interprets messages from poli sci speak.

 

[lordjeff]

No one said it did. It's not that power usage goes to almost zero, its that it is less in the "off hours" and that is available for other uses. Years ago I used to work night shift in a plant that used quite a bit of power seasonally on a 20-hours/7-day schedule.

Trying to remember why this thread has diverted...

Oh yeah, in post #332 you posted about batteries not being the solution. I can't see why you added that to the conversation unless it was my parenthetic comment about electric car sales during the pandemic in post #314.

I mentioned batteries b/c people don't understand in the argument for electric cars that the batteries are huge, expensive, & then we have to find a suitable disposal place after they finally go bad.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

I'm a mathematician. You see what I'm saying is if Al Gore says 500 gigatons of CO2 induced say a 1.3 degree increase then surely 1000 gigatons must mean the increase will be 2.6. That is how the public interprets messages from poli sci speak.

That is how you think the public might interpret such a claim.

 

[lordjeff]

That is how you think the public might interpret such a claim.

You're thinking the general public can do math. Believe me they can't do math esp higher math.